PRT TIKRIT: SALAH AD DIN LEADERS FACE TOUGH ECONOMIC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002200 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EAGR IR IZ SUBJECT: PRT TIKRIT: SALAH AD DIN LEADERS FACE TOUGH ECONOMIC QUESTIONS REF: BAGHDAD 996 ¶1. This is a PRT Tikrit, Salah ad Din cable. ¶2. This is the first of two cables regarding the Salah ad Din Business Investment Conference. ¶3. Sensitive but unclassified, entire text. ¶4. SUMMARY. The Governor of Salah ad Din hosted a gathering of over 100 public and private sector leaders for a Business and Investment Conference at Tikrit University on June 23. Ground-breaking due to its size and scope, the conference provided provincial leaders an opportunity - in the national spotlight - to outline a vision of economic growth for the province. While no panaceas were announced, and an infusion of foreign capital into SaD is probably not imminent, the meeting provided provincial leaders a platform to offer a message of hope to a downtrodden populace. Most importantly, the event helped to further legitimize in the public's eye a government increasingly adept at exploiting the power of the media. END SUMMARY. -------------- A New Economic Approach in Salah ad Din -------------- ¶5. A former military and governmental stronghold under the previous regime, Salah ad Din (SaD) is home to an economy gutted by de-Baathification and a weak, underdeveloped private sector, even when measured by Iraqi standards (reftel). The chief impediments to economic growth - the lack of access to capital, a challenging security situation, dilapidated infrastructure, regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles to registering a business, and chronic inflation - hardly, if at all, improved in 2006-2007. Moreover, many of these challenges lie outside of the purview of provincial governance. ¶6. Instead, the conference represented a growing awareness by provincial leaders that the future of SaD depends - not upon governmental subsidies and state-owned enterprises - but instead on foreign and domestic investment. (NOTE: In being dominated by officials with ties to the old regime, SaD is certainly not alone. However, the lack of private sector experience in the upper echelon of government (the Governor was a schoolteacher, the Deputy Governor a Brigadier General) may have led provincial leaders to often view the private sector as a threat to their power base. As a result, the public and private sector rarely communicate here, with the business community largely isolated from the provincial decision making process, reftel. END NOTE.) Critically, the conference discussion did not degenerate - as it often does - into a "gripe session" revolving around corruption at the Bayji oil refinery and the consequent shortages of refined fuel. ¶7. Consistent with the expectation that the national investment law will mandate a business investment committee seated in each province, the Governor announced the formation of a group that would "oversee investors in Salah ad Din and send me (the Governor) recommendations." The Governor also announced that the committee would consist of twelve members. However, balance yet may be an issue - only two of the twelve were from the business community - the rest members of the Deputy Governor's inner circle. -------------- A Better Mix -------------- ¶8. Previous economic conferences in October 2006 and March 2007 here were usually governmental or private sector and academia - but not both. On June 23, SaD Governor Hamad Hamoud al Shakti invited 315 delegates to discuss a varied agenda of topics, ranging from the new national investment law, to the (admittedly weak) level of SaD business competitiveness. Although the conference was held on a Saturday closely following several CF operations - likely discouraging attendance - approximately 140 delegates attended the event. Most importantly, the mix of delegates was robust; about 65 attendees represented the government, 35 from academia, and approximately 55 from the private sector. The Governor provided the highlight of the conference by stating, "We (the provincial government) reach out to the private sector to create hope for the people." -------------- Security First -------------- ¶9. Significantly, provincial leaders - especially the Deputy Governor - accepted responsibility for the unstable security situation in Salah ad Din, agreeing that there could be no economic development without stability. The Deputy Governor declared that BAGHDAD 00002200 002 OF 003 "security is the foundation of economic growth, and we assure any investor that we will provide it for them." The ability of the provincial government to fulfill the assurance notwithstanding, the governor's message was unequivocal. -------------- "More Hope in Doha" -------------- ¶10. It would be premature to recast SaD provincial leaders as enthusiastic, budding capitalists. In other provincial issues such as security and budget execution (septel) the tendency to (over)centralize authority in Tikrit usually rules the day (sometimes in spite of the best efforts of the PRT). If a Sunni government held power in Baghdad, the same approach likely would be applied to economic growth. However, increasingly - as hopes for reconciliation fade here - a sobering reality appears to be setting in. This sentiment was reflected by Deputy Governor Abdullah in an interview with IPAO on June 21, "We have more hope in our people in Doha or Dubai than in Baghdad." The message for SaD leaders is clear: attract investors from Dubai or Doha to the province before it is too late, for soon Salah ad Din will be on its own. In this context, the oft-repeated request for an airport in Tikrit by provincial leaders is more easily understood. -------------- Tariffs, Please... -------------- ¶11. The newfound commitment to the free market, however, did not preclude most speakers at the conference to call for stiff new duties on all imports at ports of entry. The fact that many products are imported from abroad rankles provincial leaders and the general population alike; local farmers struggle while foodstuffs flow in from Iran and Turkey (the ultimate archenemy in the minds of many SaD residents). -------------- Local Business Competitiveness Questioned -------------- ¶12. Most speakers questioned the competitiveness of businesses in SaD. Significantly, the Provincial Council Chairman, Sheikh Rashid - one of the most conservative, nationalistic members of the council whose commitment to democracy, much less free markets, once appeared to be in question - strongly supported a future foreign economic presence in SaD. Rashid also demonstrated a desire to encourage business reform through consolidation, streamlining, and increased competitiveness in SaD - if perhaps by the wrong method (government mandate rather than market forces) - by stating that "we (the provincial government) should reorganize the businesses of SaD by combining five into one." ¶13. The business community in SaD is also hamstrung by rampant hostility between the two principal private sector organizations: the Businessman's Union and the Chamber of Commerce. Driven by a personal feud between the two leaders, Raad al Ali, President of the Union, and Dhamer Muhklif, President of the Chamber of Commerce, the rival camps actually attempt to sabotage opposing group initiatives and investments in the province rather than supporting the business community as a whole. (NOTE: These institutions are also highly distrusted by the general population, as they were used as intelligence gathering organizations in the past. END NOTE.) Deputy Governor Abdullah called them to task at the conference, however, stating that "The Chamber of Commerce doesn't do anything right now except print ID cards." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶14. Tikrit will not be the next Dubai anytime soon. The near-term value of the provincial government's outreach to the private sector and encouragement - however nascent - of foreign investment will likely be political rather than economic. The advent of a business investment committee which can take steps towards the attraction of foreign investment - and coordinate USG initiatives (such as the Task Force for Improved Business and Stability Operations - Iraq project) - is a significant economic capacity building measure. However, the true value of the conference and the initiative from which it will hopefully spring was the message of economic growth and the hope of future prosperity. This could be a powerful counter to the growing extremism here, especially given the provincial government's budding ability to utilize the provincial and even the national media. The prospect of economic growth (dependent upon improved security) will also remain a valuable carrot which can be leveraged to encourage the provincial government to continue to take the difficult steps necessary to improve the security situation. The PRT will remain highly engaged on this critical issue throughout the summer/fall 2007. END COMMENT. BAGHDAD 00002200 003 OF 003 ¶15. For additional reporting from PRT Tikrit, Salah ad Din, please see our SIPRNET reporting blog: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Tikrit.