COR SPEAKER MASHADANI ON HIS WAY OUT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001934

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: COR SPEAKER MASHADANI ON HIS WAY OUT?

Classified by PolCouns Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: An altercation between CoR Speaker
Mashadani's security detail and another MP early on June 10
put focus on the long-standing desire of many CoR members to
remove him as Speaker. The CoR voted June 11 to consider the
Speaker to be on leave until such time as a replacement from
the Sunni Tawafuq bloc is named. The move arose out of
cumulative frustration with Mashadani's rough style and
creates an opportunity (and challenge) for Tawafuq to put
forth a credible replacement at a time when the CoR is in
drastic need of leadership. Mashadani has been under fire
before, and rebounded, yet this latest move has even his
office staff telling us his resignation is sure. End summary.


2. (C) Frustration with Speaker Mashadani's brusque manner,
combative debating style, emotional outbursts, poor session
management, and even periodic physical violence (slapping a
member earlier this year, for example),have had many CoR
members looking for an opportunity to replace him. Reports
of a petition requesting his resignation have circulated in
recent months. A June 10 incident in which the Speaker's
robust security team brushed against an MP in a rough manner
-- leading to arguments between the MP and Mashadani and
further rough handling by his bodyguards -- became the "straw
that broke the camel's back" (a proverb many MP's used to
describe the event). The reaction was immediate. The June
10 session was dedicated to this one topic; a follow-up
session June 11 issued a resolution calling for an
alternative candidate for Speaker. (Both sessions were
closed to the public and Mashadani did not attend either one.)


3. (SBU) The June 11 resolution, reportedly approved by a
majority of CoR members in closed session, reads
approximately as follows: Building upon Tawafuq's assurance
that Mahmoud Mashadani would resign as Speaker, the CoR
accepts this assurance and considers Mashadani on leave until
Tawafuq presents another candidate to this position. First
Deputy Speaker Sheikh Khalid al-Attiya will assume the role
and authorities of Speaker during the period in which Mr.
Mashadani is on leave.


4. (C) Many members suggest that Tawafuq should present a
candidate for Speaker within one week (the next CoR session
is scheduled for June 19). Maintaining the broader political
balance leads members from all political stripes to conclude
that the Sunni Tawafuq bloc will likely fill the seat, and
many go further to suggest that intra-Tawafuq dynamics call
for a nominee from Mashadani's subgroup, the National
Dialogue Council led by Khalaf Allyan. With only seven
members, including one who remains hospitalized following the
April 12 CoR bombing, the bench is not very deep in that
group -- which is partially how Mashadani won as compromise
candidate for Speaker in the first place -- and this new
vacancy may be an opportunity for Tawafuq to put forth a
stronger leader from the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) of VP
Tareq al-Hashimi or an independent Sunni. The reaction of
Shia and Kurdish blocs to the eventual nominee also bears
watching; while indications are that most want Mashadani
gone, the reception of his eventual successor is a separate
matter.


5. (C) The pundits have ruled out Mashadani before, only to
be surprised by his rebound. Until he formally resigns, or
the CoR takes action to formally replace him, his hat is
still nominally in the ring -- although the current fiasco
has seriously undercut his credibility and even his own staff
tells us his resignation is sure. That said, the June 11
vote to consider him "on leave" is not likely a legally
binding decision until the CoR names a new leader by an
absolute majority (138 votes).
CROCKER