SRSG QAZI AND AMBASSADOR DISCUSS UNAMI ROLE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001382

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR UN IZ
SUBJECT: SRSG QAZI AND AMBASSADOR DISCUSS UNAMI ROLE,
NEIGHBORS, AND CHALLENGES AHEAD


Classified By: Ambassador Ryan Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: During an introductory meeting, the
Ambassador and UN Special Representative to the Secretary
General (SRSG),Ashraf Qazi discussed Iraq's regional
relations, timing for provincial elections, Iran's regional
ambitions, and a possible role for the UN in the Kirkuk
Article 140 process. He informed us that the Secretary
General's Special Advisor for the International Compact for
Iraq, Ibrahim Gambari, would be visiting Iraq April 5-8, and
gave feedback on the Secretary General's recent visit to
Baghdad. Qazi gave his impressions of PM Maliki, Grand
Ayatolla Sistani. Qazi further stated that he is prepared to
raise the UNAMI staffing ceiling and deploy as many as twelve
new UN staff members to the Basrah Air Station. End Summary.

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AMBASSADOR TO QAZI: UNAMI ROLE IS IMPORTANT
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2. (C) The Ambassador initiated the conversation with SRSG
Qazi by expressing appreciation for Qazi's service in Iraq
over the past three years. He noted the many challenges that
remained in Iraq and underscored the U.S. Mission's
commitment to continuing to work closely with UNAMI, which
has an important and irreplaceable role to play in Iraq's
democratic development.


3. (C) Qazi welcomed he Ambassador, reflecting on the many
developments he had seen during his tenure in Baghdad. Qazi
introduced his impressions by saying that although we have
seen security plans, met milestones, obtained UN Security
Council resolutions, held elections, and created a
parliament, the security situation remained troubling and
there is still much to do in strengthening democracy. . He
noted the importance for capitals to focus on timelines and
milestones that reflect realities on the ground in Iraq
rather than our own domestic exigencies. He also noted the
importance of assessing honestly opportunities in Iraq as
well as the many limitations.


4. (C) At the same time, Qazi assessed that Iraq is making a
transition. It ultimately may take longer and cost more, but
we should stay the course. Qazi welcomed what he
characterized as a new regional approach by the U.S. toward
Iraq. A broader approach may yield sudden dividends, in
Qazi's view, because of "a great desire on the part of all
Iraqis to get out of the current situation."

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NEIGHBORS, CONFERENCES AND THE ICI
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5. (C) Qazi informed us that the Secretary General's Special
Advisor (SGSA) on the International Compact for Iraq (ICI),
Ibrahim Gambari, is arriving in Iraq on April 5. SGSA
Gambari would like to announce the date and venue for the ICI
prior to his departure the afternoon of April 8. The
Ambassador observed that a decision would then have to be
made by close of business April 6, since the Prime Minister
starts traveling on April 7.


6. (C) Contrary to what Iraqis may perceive, Qazi opined, all
of Iraq's neighbors believe they are acting defensively in
Iraq. He asserted that, based on his conversations, he
believes that even Iran feels it is being defensive. Qazi
said that Iranian officials had told him they recognize that
they cannot control Iraq for two reasons: (1) Iraq is an Arab
country, not Persian, and (2) the Shi'a do not have an
absolute majority. He said Iranians view Iraq like Turkey
does - a long term neighbor - and they do not want an
uncontrollable situation. In fact, the Iranians are telling
us they are happy the U.S. is here, stated Qazi.


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PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS, KIRKUK
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7. (C) In Qazi's view, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani may
oppose provincial elections at the governorate level this
year; instead, Qazi said he understood that Sistani seeks
elections at the District Government level, which he views as
more relevant to the lives of average Iraqis. Qazi asserted
that elections at that level could not be achieved this year
with the current voter registration system, and, in his view,
would require a delay until next year. Qazi said it was hard
to tell what would happen in the South in provincial
elections - moderates might or might not lose ground to
extremists. With regard to elections, the Ambassador stated
that he hoped the UN appreciated the importance of provincial
elections for Iraq's stability as well as the need to adapt

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to Iraqi realities.


8. (C) Qazi stated the UN could play a constructive role in
resolving the KRG boundary disputes and status of Kirkuk. He
noted a recent paper his staff had done on the issue that
indicated political solution may be preferable to a
referendum. Qazi committed to remain in close contact with
the mission in coming months as Iraqi political players begin
to deal with the issue of Kirkuk, hopefully in a more
forthright manner. The Ambassador agreed that there may
indeed be a potential UN role on Kirkuk. The possibility,
however, would need to be broached delicately with the
Iraqis, particularly the Kurds.

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THE UNSYG VISIT; UNAMI'S ROLE
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9. (C) Qazi stated that the Secretary General's (SYG) visit
to Iraq in March was "very successful," he met with everyone
except Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, leader of the United Iraqi
Alliance, who apologized for being unable to meet. The SYG
told the Iraqis that his decision to visit Iraq so early in
his tenure was to show the priority of Iraq. Qazi
recommended a second trip at an appropriate point in the
future.


10. (C) The Ambassador agreed that another UNSYG trip would,
indeed, be useful, particularly if it highlighted the
important role UNAMI continues to play here. To that effect,
the Ambassador urged that UNAMI begin to return staff to
Baghdad after drawing down by roughly one-third in November.
Specifically, the Ambassador suggested that the UN High
Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) place permanent staff in
Baghdad. The Ambassador acknowledged that difficult security
environment in Baghdad, but underscored that the UN could
play a key role in promoting reconciliation and in
strengthening democratic institutions. Qazi replied that, in
response to previous requests by the Embassy, both UNHCR and
the ICRC would soon be placing permanent international staff
in Baghdad.

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QAZI'S OBSERVATIONS ON MALIKI, SISTANI
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11. (C) Qazi noted that Prime Minister Maliki is an introvert
and not a very good reconciler. He comes from the Dawa
movement, which originated as an underground opposition party
and is very conspiracy focused. Qazi posited that
sometimes U.S. support may act as a disincentive for Maliki
to take action on key issues.


12. (C) Qazi stated he visits Sistani once every four months;
his next visit is scheduled in May. He opined that Sistani's
son is the gatekeeper for the father: the son controls access
to the father, finishes his father's sentences, and is the
most authentic voice for the father. The son will never
replace the father's religious authority, but he is filling
the role of the father's political spokesman.


13. (C) Sistani appears to have been in despair for some time
with the level of sectarian killings, in Qazi's view.
Sistani blames the Sunni leadership for "squandering
opportunities to participate." Qazi acknowledged, however,
that the Sunni leadership does not have much influence, and
that they have to play to the gallery to protect their own
lives: look at what happened to Deputy Prime Minister Zubai.


14. (C) The Ambassador ended the meeting by reaffirming the
importance of consulting closely. The issues in Iraq are of
tremendous importance. The UN's role, he emphasized, will be
critical in the months ahead in Iraq.
CROCKER