ANBAR: DISPLACED SUNNIS LEAVE BAGHDAD FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000131 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREF PTER IZ SUBJECT: ANBAR: DISPLACED SUNNIS LEAVE BAGHDAD FOR FALLUJAH, BAGHDAD 00000131 001.2 OF 002 (U) Classified by PRT Anbar leader James Soriano, reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (U) This is a PRT Anbar cable. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: Internally displaced persons (IDPs), virtually all of them Sunni Arabs from Baghdad, continue to enter the Fallujah area of Anbar province due to sectarian strife in Iraq,s capital. As a group, the IDPs in Anbar comprise only four percent of Anbar,s population of 1.2 million, and as such, do not represent a significant humanitarian challenge. Most are taken in by extended family members. The IDPs we talked to say they favor an increase of Coalition Forces (CF) in Baghdad in order to stem Mahdi Army (JAM) activity. They indicate that controlling the JAM would positively influence their decision to return home. Many also say that they want CF to focus security efforts on Shia neighborhoods -- not only Sunni ones. Some IDPs say that if the GOI or CF fail to dismantle the Shia militias, Sunnis will have no option but to turn to Al-Qaida for protection. END SUMMARY. -------------- STEADY IDP FLOW FROM BAGHDAD -------------- ¶3. (C) City leaders in Fallujah estimate that in recent months approximately 40,000 IDPs have arrived in the city, having fled the unrest in Baghdad, and are now living with extended family members. Following the significant recent fighting in Baghdad, we have seen a small spike in IDPs seeking entry into Fallujah (for example, 102 of 168 identity badges issued on January 9 were to male IDP heads of household). City council secretary Abbas Ali Hussein and mayor Jassim Bedawi stress that the underlying problem is uncontrolled militia activity in Baghdad, which has prompted Sunni Arabs to flee the capital. Until that problem is resolved, IDPs will continue to seek entry into the city, perceived as a Sunni safe haven. In the past, we have seen some IDPs seek shelter in Fallujah from the southern cities of Basra and Kut; however, the largest proportion still arrives from Baghdad. ¶4. (C) Fallujah,s city council has divided the city into four quadrants, with local imams taking a leading role in providing assistance to displaced families. Reportedly, the GoI has allocated funds for IDPs. So far the city has been able to absorb the IDP influx. The most pressing issue is IDPs, lack of access to foodstuffs provided under the national food ration system due to their relocation. Local leaders have commonly criticized the lack of GoI support for the IDPs and have requested CF assistance. -------------- -------------- &MUJAHIDEEN8 AGAINST MILITIAS; AL-QAIDA AS PROTECTOR? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) PRT Anbar PolOff spoke with dozens of IDPs in late December and early January in Fallujah. One IDP, a self-described &muj8 (mujahideen, &holy war8 fighter) in his twenties, told Poloff that &before the mujahideen were against you Americans 100 percent of the time; now we are 80 percent working to fight the militias and only 20 percent against you.8 Another IDP, a doctor from a mixed neighborhood in Baghdad, said that Al Qaida was filling a growing gap: &I know that Al Qaida is a bad organization, but at least they try to protect Sunnis from the Shia militias and Iran. We feel safer when they are near.8 Several IDPs have echoed this sentiment at an MNF-W IDP processing center located on the outskirts of Fallujah. ¶6. (C) Some IDPs further stressed that an &Iranian occupation8 has now replaced the American occupation of Iraq. Several said that they perceive long-term U.S. interests in the region to be increasingly in line with Iraq,s minority Sunni Arab population. An elderly IDP put it this way, &Iran is your enemy and ours. You need to pick a side in our civil war or leave.8 ¶7. (C) The IDPs expressed a desire to return to their homes in Baghdad, but say they will only do so if U.S. troops ensured checkpoints were jointly manned with CF and who would maintain their presence. One IDP, who said the JAM killed his uncle, remarked that Americans should either fight the Shia militias or allow Sunnis to do it themselves. When asked whether Sunni IDPs from his neighborhood would seek revenge against their Shia neighbors, he replied, &maybe, maybe not.8 BAGHDAD 00000131 002 OF 002 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The IDP influx into Fallujah is currently manageable, and if security in Baghdad were improved, many of them would begin to return to their old neighborhoods. The IDPs we spoke with tend to be more sympathetic to Al-Qaida than Anbar,s general population as a whole. That is not surprising since they fled their homes under Shia pressure, and tend to see Al-Qaida as their protector and champion. On the other hand, as the recent anti-insurgent movement by tribal leaders in Ramadi suggests, public opinion as a whole in western Iraq appears to have turned against Al-Qaida. Nonetheless, as long as Shia militant pressure continues against Sunnis in Baghdad, Al-Qaida might find an increasingly receptive audience among the IDPs in Anbar province. KHALILZAD