ANBAR: DISPLACED SUNNIS LEAVE BAGHDAD FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000131

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREF PTER IZ
SUBJECT: ANBAR: DISPLACED SUNNIS LEAVE BAGHDAD FOR
FALLUJAH,

BAGHDAD 00000131 001.2 OF 002


(U) Classified by PRT Anbar leader James Soriano, reasons 1.4
(b),(d).


1. (U) This is a PRT Anbar cable.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Internally displaced persons (IDPs),
virtually all of them Sunni Arabs from Baghdad, continue to
enter the Fallujah area of Anbar province due to sectarian
strife in Iraq,s capital. As a group, the IDPs in Anbar
comprise only four percent of Anbar,s population of 1.2
million, and as such, do not represent a significant
humanitarian challenge. Most are taken in by extended family
members. The IDPs we talked to say they favor an increase of
Coalition Forces (CF) in Baghdad in order to stem Mahdi Army
(JAM) activity. They indicate that controlling the JAM would
positively influence their decision to return home. Many
also say that they want CF to focus security efforts on Shia
neighborhoods -- not only Sunni ones. Some IDPs say that if
the GOI or CF fail to dismantle the Shia militias, Sunnis
will have no option but to turn to Al-Qaida for protection.
END SUMMARY.

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STEADY IDP FLOW FROM BAGHDAD
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3. (C) City leaders in Fallujah estimate that in recent
months approximately 40,000 IDPs have arrived in the city,
having fled the unrest in Baghdad, and are now living with
extended family members. Following the significant recent
fighting in Baghdad, we have seen a small spike in IDPs
seeking entry into Fallujah (for example, 102 of 168 identity
badges issued on January 9 were to male IDP heads of
household). City council secretary Abbas Ali Hussein and
mayor Jassim Bedawi stress that the underlying problem is
uncontrolled militia activity in Baghdad, which has prompted
Sunni Arabs to flee the capital. Until that problem is
resolved, IDPs will continue to seek entry into the city,
perceived as a Sunni safe haven. In the past, we have seen
some IDPs seek shelter in Fallujah from the southern cities
of Basra and Kut; however, the largest proportion still
arrives from Baghdad.


4. (C) Fallujah,s city council has divided the city into
four quadrants, with local imams taking a leading role in
providing assistance to displaced families. Reportedly, the
GoI has allocated funds for IDPs. So far the city has been
able to absorb the IDP influx. The most pressing issue is
IDPs, lack of access to foodstuffs provided under the
national food ration system due to their relocation. Local
leaders have commonly criticized the lack of GoI support for
the IDPs and have requested CF assistance.

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&MUJAHIDEEN8 AGAINST MILITIAS; AL-QAIDA AS PROTECTOR?
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5. (C) PRT Anbar PolOff spoke with dozens of IDPs in late
December and early January in Fallujah. One IDP, a
self-described &muj8 (mujahideen, &holy war8 fighter) in
his twenties, told Poloff that &before the mujahideen were
against you Americans 100 percent of the time; now we are 80
percent working to fight the militias and only 20 percent
against you.8 Another IDP, a doctor from a mixed
neighborhood in Baghdad, said that Al Qaida was filling a
growing gap: &I know that Al Qaida is a bad organization,
but at least they try to protect Sunnis from the Shia
militias and Iran. We feel safer when they are near.8
Several IDPs have echoed this sentiment at an MNF-W IDP
processing center located on the outskirts of Fallujah.


6. (C) Some IDPs further stressed that an &Iranian
occupation8 has now replaced the American occupation of
Iraq. Several said that they perceive long-term U.S.
interests in the region to be increasingly in line with
Iraq,s minority Sunni Arab population. An elderly IDP put
it this way, &Iran is your enemy and ours. You need to pick
a side in our civil war or leave.8


7. (C) The IDPs expressed a desire to return to their homes
in Baghdad, but say they will only do so if U.S. troops
ensured checkpoints were jointly manned with CF and who would
maintain their presence. One IDP, who said the JAM killed
his uncle, remarked that Americans should either fight the
Shia militias or allow Sunnis to do it themselves. When
asked whether Sunni IDPs from his neighborhood would seek
revenge against their Shia neighbors, he replied, &maybe,
maybe not.8


BAGHDAD 00000131 002 OF 002


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COMMENT
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8. (C) The IDP influx into Fallujah is currently manageable,
and if security in Baghdad were improved, many of them would
begin to return to their old neighborhoods. The IDPs we
spoke with tend to be more sympathetic to Al-Qaida than
Anbar,s general population as a whole. That is not
surprising since they fled their homes under Shia pressure,
and tend to see Al-Qaida as their protector and champion. On
the other hand, as the recent anti-insurgent movement by
tribal leaders in Ramadi suggests, public opinion as a whole
in western Iraq appears to have turned against Al-Qaida.
Nonetheless, as long as Shia militant pressure continues
against Sunnis in Baghdad, Al-Qaida might find an
increasingly receptive audience among the IDPs in Anbar
province.
KHALILZAD