SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI VP MEHDI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000128 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ SUBJECT: SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI VP MEHDI Classified By: Ambassador Khalilzad for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a January 9 meeting with Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi, Senator Brownback conveyed the deteriorating U.S. domestic political sentiment over the war in Iraq and inquired about current Government of Iraq (GOI) strategies to improve the security situation. The Senator noted that the American public believes the war in Iraq has become a Shia-Sunni conflict and that the U.S. public will not support increasing U.S. casualties. The violence has not become sectarian, Abdul Mehdi emphasized, stating that insurgents cause Iraq's violence. The VP noted the GOI continued partnership with MNF-I despite many U.S. mistakes. The Senator explained that without reconciliation and a political solution, there will be an increased demand for U.S. troop reductions. Abdul Mehdi expressed no concern, stating that the GOI would understand that decision. On Iranian interference, the VP quickly dismissed the issue stating that "Iran is only encouraging some militias," and that the terrorists originate in Sunni Arab countries. End Summary. -------------- = -------------- SENATOR LAYS OUT U.S. DOMESTIC SITUATION -------------- ¶2. (C) Senator Brownback opened the discussion with a frank assessment of the negative mood in Congress over the current situation in Iraq. After reminding VP Mehdi that he had been one of the earliest and most consistent supporters of the liberation of Iraq, the Senator stated that U.S. casualties and lack of political and security progress had reached "a tipping point" back in the U.S. The Senator explained that his party had lost the recent election "mainly due to the Iraq war," and that the opposition party would soon engage in a big policy debate in the Congress over the current engagement in Iraq. He warned that the Democrats would fund current military operations for at most one more year, and would then start implementing significant funding restrictions, such as denying supplemental appropriations and voting for troop withdrawals. The Senator pointed out that his personal impression was that the security situation was much worse than it was two years ago. "Something is not working," he concluded. ¶3. (C) Abdul Mehdi thanked the Senator for his support in Iraq's liberation and enumerated U.S. achievements: (1) a short war, when other people estimated it would take months to topple Saddam; (2) successful regime change; (3) the trial of Saddam; (4) and initiating a more democratic society that will change the face of the Middle East. He then stated that the security situation is not worse than before, claiming a decrease in Iraqi civilian deaths compared with two years ago. He assessed that Iraq's problems are due to insurgency violence, and concluded that while Iraq may not have the most efficient government, it is the most representative government in Iraq's history. -------------- - BROWNBACK: WE HAVE NO DOG IN A SECTARIAN FIGHT -------------- - ¶4. (C) Senator Brownback countered that November and December were the highest death tolls in recent history and that "it doesn't feel like we are making any progress." The U.S. public, he warned, sees this as an internal Sunni- Shia fight and that "we don't have a dog in that fight". He brought up the example of Northern Ireland and explained the U.S. is not interested in sectarian conflicts. He repeated that the U.S. Congress will not fund a long-term surge in troops, although the Democrats would not be able to prevent a short-term deployment surge. He asked the VP how the GOI plans to improve things. -------------- -------------- ABDUL MEHDI: WE ARE HELPING YOU DESPITE YOUR OWN MISTAKES -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Abdul Mehdi stated that Baghdad's violence is driven by insurgents. He suggested that the Iraqis were perfectly capable of handling their own security. For example, he said, Iraqi Army (IA) officers report they have made progress against militias and terrorists, noting that 70% of successful engagements are taken without MNF-I assistance. Abdul Mehdi redefined the conflict by stating that "we are helping you in your fight against insurgents," and that they were doing so despite U.S. mistakes such as the Coalition Provisional Authority's dismissal of the security forces. ¶6. (C) Senator Brownback emphasized the need to find a BAGHDAD 00000128 002 OF 002 political solution, because the U.S. does not want to impose a military solution which would take 40 years. Abdul Mehdi accused the Sunnis of not negotiating or participating, even to develop three federal regions. The Sunnis, he said, want to stop the reconciliation process, show the U.S. presence to be catastrophic, and prove that no one can govern the country except an Arab Sunni. -------------- POSSIBLE TROOP PULLBACKS AND REDUCTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) The Senator reiterated that a democracy like the U.S. cannot sustain a war without the support of both parties. That support is now lacking, he said. He predicted that the President's speech would not get an enthusiastic reception, and that "we don't have much time" to improve the security situation. The result, he emphasized, could be that the U.S. pulls back to more sequestered garrisons. Abdul Mehdi responded that "this is what we have been proposing from the beginning." ¶8. (C) When the Senator asked what would be the impact of a troop reduction of 50,000 per year, in order to reduce American targets, Abdul Mehdi replied that "we are not opposed to it" and "we will understand if you have to take that option." When asked by the Senator why the IA did not take a greater role, Abdul Mehdi blamed the MNF-I command structure and said that otherwise, the IA could do it. Mehdi advisors Dr. Zuhair Humadi and Fareed Yasseen said that in order to succeed, the IA needs combat helicopters, equipment, armor, and trucks. The insurgents have better offensive weaponry than Iraqi troops, they said. -------------- BROWNBACK: RECONCILIATION CRITICAL -------------- ¶9. (C) Senator Brownback urged that "the Iraqi government play its cards now," and that "if there are political calculations to get Sunnis and Shias together, you need to do it now." The advisors explained that they had a strategy that would regain credibility in the U.S. Congress, but the Senator expressed doubt. -------------- MEHDI: YOU'LL BE BACK -------------- ¶10. (C) Abdul Mehdi stated that he understands that "President Bush thinks he can win something in Baghdad" and that "the new security plan is a good plan, if done well." The alternatives are worse, he continued, saying that "if you leave now, you will return later again, like Somalia." Abdul Mehdi pointed out that U.S. assumptions at the beginning were very optimistic and that caused mistakes. "Now," he said, "you are paying for it, and we are paying for it." The Senator concluded by emphasizing the importance of regaining Democratic support for the Iraq effort, but that they will decide the level of U.S. support. Abdul Mehdi appeared unconcerned, saying Iraq would "understand" a USG decision to reduce troop levels. KHALILZAD