SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI VP MEHDI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000128

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI VP MEHDI


Classified By: Ambassador Khalilzad for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a January 9 meeting with Vice President
Adel Abdul Mehdi, Senator Brownback conveyed the
deteriorating U.S. domestic political sentiment over the war
in Iraq and inquired about current Government of Iraq (GOI)
strategies to improve the security situation. The Senator
noted that the American public believes the war in Iraq has
become a Shia-Sunni conflict and that the U.S. public will
not support increasing U.S. casualties. The violence has not
become sectarian, Abdul Mehdi emphasized, stating that
insurgents cause Iraq's violence. The VP noted the GOI
continued partnership with MNF-I despite many U.S. mistakes.
The Senator explained that without reconciliation and a
political solution, there will be an increased demand for
U.S. troop reductions. Abdul Mehdi expressed no concern,
stating that the GOI would understand that decision. On
Iranian interference, the VP quickly dismissed the issue
stating that "Iran is only encouraging some militias," and
that the terrorists originate in Sunni Arab countries. End
Summary.

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SENATOR LAYS OUT U.S. DOMESTIC SITUATION
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2. (C) Senator Brownback opened the discussion with a frank
assessment of the negative mood in Congress over the current
situation in Iraq. After reminding VP Mehdi that he had been
one of the earliest and most consistent supporters of the
liberation of Iraq, the Senator stated that U.S. casualties
and lack of political and security progress had reached "a
tipping point" back in the U.S. The Senator explained that
his party had lost the recent election "mainly due to the
Iraq war," and that the opposition party would soon engage in
a big policy debate in the Congress over the current
engagement in Iraq. He warned that the Democrats would fund
current military operations for at most one more year, and
would then start implementing significant funding
restrictions, such as denying supplemental appropriations and
voting for troop withdrawals. The Senator pointed out that
his personal impression was that the security situation was
much worse than it was two years ago. "Something is not
working," he concluded.


3. (C) Abdul Mehdi thanked the Senator for his support in
Iraq's liberation and enumerated U.S. achievements: (1) a
short war, when other people estimated it would take months
to topple Saddam; (2) successful regime change; (3) the trial
of Saddam; (4) and initiating a more democratic society that
will change the face of the Middle East. He then stated that
the security situation is not worse than before, claiming a
decrease in Iraqi civilian deaths compared with two years
ago. He assessed that Iraq's problems are due to insurgency
violence, and concluded that while Iraq may not have the most
efficient government, it is the most representative
government in Iraq's history.

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BROWNBACK: WE HAVE NO DOG IN A SECTARIAN FIGHT
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4. (C) Senator Brownback countered that November and December
were the highest death tolls in recent history and that "it
doesn't feel like we are making any progress." The U.S.
public, he warned, sees this as an internal Sunni- Shia fight
and that "we don't have a dog in that fight". He brought up
the example of Northern Ireland and explained the U.S. is not
interested in sectarian conflicts. He repeated that the U.S.
Congress will not fund a long-term surge in troops, although
the Democrats would not be able to prevent a short-term
deployment surge. He asked the VP how the GOI plans to
improve things.

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ABDUL MEHDI: WE ARE HELPING YOU DESPITE YOUR OWN MISTAKES
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5. (C) Abdul Mehdi stated that Baghdad's violence is driven
by insurgents. He suggested that the Iraqis were perfectly
capable of handling their own security. For example, he said,
Iraqi Army (IA) officers report they have made progress
against militias and terrorists, noting that 70% of
successful engagements are taken without MNF-I assistance.
Abdul Mehdi redefined the conflict by stating that "we are
helping you in your fight against insurgents," and that they
were doing so despite U.S. mistakes such as the Coalition
Provisional Authority's dismissal of the security forces.


6. (C) Senator Brownback emphasized the need to find a

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political solution, because the U.S. does not want to impose
a military solution which would take 40 years. Abdul Mehdi
accused the Sunnis of not negotiating or participating, even
to develop three federal regions. The Sunnis, he said, want
to stop the reconciliation process, show the U.S. presence to
be catastrophic, and prove that no one can govern the country
except an Arab Sunni.

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POSSIBLE TROOP PULLBACKS AND REDUCTIONS
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7. (C) The Senator reiterated that a democracy like the U.S.
cannot sustain a war without the support of both parties.
That support is now lacking, he said. He predicted that the
President's speech would not get an enthusiastic reception,
and that "we don't have much time" to improve the security
situation. The result, he emphasized, could be that the U.S.
pulls back to more sequestered garrisons. Abdul Mehdi
responded that "this is what we have been proposing from the
beginning."


8. (C) When the Senator asked what would be the impact of a
troop reduction of 50,000 per year, in order to reduce
American targets, Abdul Mehdi replied that "we are not
opposed to it" and "we will understand if you have to take
that option." When asked by the Senator why the IA did not
take a greater role, Abdul Mehdi blamed the MNF-I command
structure and said that otherwise, the IA could do it. Mehdi
advisors Dr. Zuhair Humadi and Fareed Yasseen said that in
order to succeed, the IA needs combat helicopters, equipment,
armor, and trucks. The insurgents have better offensive
weaponry than Iraqi troops, they said.

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BROWNBACK: RECONCILIATION CRITICAL
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9. (C) Senator Brownback urged that "the Iraqi government
play its cards now," and that "if there are political
calculations to get Sunnis and Shias together, you need to do
it now." The advisors explained that they had a strategy
that would regain credibility in the U.S. Congress, but the
Senator expressed doubt.

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MEHDI: YOU'LL BE BACK
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10. (C) Abdul Mehdi stated that he understands that
"President Bush thinks he can win something in Baghdad" and
that "the new security plan is a good plan, if done well."
The alternatives are worse, he continued, saying that "if you
leave now, you will return later again, like Somalia." Abdul
Mehdi pointed out that U.S. assumptions at the beginning were
very optimistic and that caused mistakes. "Now," he said,
"you are paying for it, and we are paying for it." The
Senator concluded by emphasizing the importance of regaining
Democratic support for the Iraq effort, but that they will
decide the level of U.S. support. Abdul Mehdi appeared
unconcerned, saying Iraq would "understand" a USG decision to
reduce troop levels.
KHALILZAD