SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI PM MALIKI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000127

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI PM MALIKI


Classified By: Ambassador Khalilzad, reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: In a January 9 meeting with Iraqi PM
Maliki, Senator Brownback gave a sober assessment of the
U.S. political atmosphere on Iraq. The PM emphasized the
importance of rapidly training and equipping Iraqi forces
which, he said, would allow the U.S. to reduce its presence
in Iraq in three months. The PM assessed that Iran is
using Iraq to wage a proxy war against the U.S.; he claimed
Iran is ready for dialogue. The PM denied that most
violence is the product of sectarian violence; he blamed
ex-Ba'athists for most of the killings in Iraq. The PM
said that Iraqi forces are increasingly willing to confront
militias. End Summary.

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As a Friend, Senator Gives Sober Assessment
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2. (C) Senator Brownback reviewed his record of strong
support for OIF and the U.S. political atmosphere on Iraq.
The Republicans had lost November Congressional elections
over Iraq and public support for the war is decreasing.
The Democratic Party base opposes the war and long-term
Congressional funding is in doubt. To many Americans, Iraq
is looking more and more like a fight between Sunnis and
Shiites in which the U.S. has no stake.


3. (C) The Senator warned that absent a dramatic change
for the better, there could be a rapid U.S. pullout. U.S.
casualties were eroding public support and a way must be
found to reduce them. Emphasizing he was speaking as a
friend, the Senator assessed the current situation as
serious.

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PM Emphasizes Building Up Iraqi Forces
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4. (C) PM Maliki thanked the Senator for his and USG
support which, he pointed out, had resulted in freedom,
democracy and "human values" in Iraq. He agreed with the
Senator's assessment and said he wanted to help reduce U.S.
public pressure. The PM said the present environment is
difficult, and promised to do "whatever it takes" to turn
things around, including military measures that might
result in higher Iraqi casualties.


5. (C) The PM said that the USG and GOI have not yet been
able to build up Iraqi forces sufficiently, but predicted
that enough progress would be made in three months to allow
U.S. forces to pull back. He appealed for accelerated
equipping and training of Iraqi forces, which he said would
allow U.S. troops to retire to bases. The PM expressed
optimism about the new Baghdad security plan.


6. (C) Iraq would also reach out to other countries in the
region that are interfering in Iraq and making life
difficult. The PM told the Senator a series of Iraqi
delegations is traveling to regional countries, including
Iran and Syria. The PM singled out Syria as the country
from which most terrorists come.

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Iran Using Iraq for "Proxy War" Against U.S.
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7. (C) The PM noted the GOI has extant security agreements
with Iran. The problem is bilateral tensions between the
U.S. and Iran, which have turned Iraq into a "confrontation
land" in which Iran is staging a proxy war against the U.S.
with IEDs. The PM predicted U.S. casualties in Iraq would
decrease if the U.S. and Iran solved their bilateral
problems.


8. (C) However, the PM said the GOI had received "a
signal" from Iran in the wake of the MNF-I detention of two
Iranian Qods Force members that showed "a change in their
thinking." Iran had sent a letter, the PM said, saying
that it seeks dialogue with the U.S., not confrontation.

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PM Blames Ba'athists for Most Violence
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9. (C) Asked by the Senator whether most violence in Iraq
is the product of a sectarian fight, the PM said there is
some sectarian violence, but most of the killing is done by
ex-Ba'athists. At least some Ba'athist insurgents are
betting they could return to power. They are using

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killings in Iraq to paint a "distorted picture" that Iraq
is failing.


10. (C) The Senator asked whether establishing separate
Shiite and Sunni regions would mitigate violence. The PM
doubted this would be a viable solution, since Iraq
includes many mixed Shiite/Sunnis areas, most notably
Baghdad. Instead, the answer is to reduce sectarianism.

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Withdrawing U.S. Troops
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11. (C) Senator Brownback asked if withdrawal of a
significant number of U.S. troops would be possible in the
next 12 months. The PM said it would be possible in three
months if the process of building Iraqi forces is speeded
up. In terms of equipment, Iraq is not seeking heavy
equipment such as tanks and ships, but rather, the light to
medium weaponry.


12. (C) The Senator assessed it would not be possible for
the USG to sustain a war with one political party against
it. He hoped that, through U.S. troop withdrawals that
would reduce the U.S. presence to around 50,000 and
pullbacks to bases, the war effort could reach a point that
would garner bipartisan support. However, the Democratic
Party would not support a troop surge.


13. (C) The PM asked why the USG would surge troops if
that would create problems. Instead, he suggested, the
alternative would be to create more Iraqi forces. The PM
again predicted that a "serious" effort to train and equip
Iraqi forces would allow the U.S. to reduce its presence in
three months. The Senator replied that U.S. commanders
said that Iraqi forces had failed to perform adequately.
The PM attributed shortcomings to poor recruitment
practices instituted by the CPA, which the GOI had since
changed.

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Confronting Militias
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14. (C) Senator Brownback asked whether the PM would
confront Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army (JAM) militia.
The PM said this was not a major military challenge; the
JAM's size and strength had been exaggerated. In the past,
Iraqi army and police had not confronted militias, but now
they are beginning to.


15. (U) Senator Brownback did not clear this message.
KHALILZAD