SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI PM MALIKI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000127 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ SUBJECT: SENATOR BROWNBACK MEETS WITH IRAQI PM MALIKI Classified By: Ambassador Khalilzad, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a January 9 meeting with Iraqi PM Maliki, Senator Brownback gave a sober assessment of the U.S. political atmosphere on Iraq. The PM emphasized the importance of rapidly training and equipping Iraqi forces which, he said, would allow the U.S. to reduce its presence in Iraq in three months. The PM assessed that Iran is using Iraq to wage a proxy war against the U.S.; he claimed Iran is ready for dialogue. The PM denied that most violence is the product of sectarian violence; he blamed ex-Ba'athists for most of the killings in Iraq. The PM said that Iraqi forces are increasingly willing to confront militias. End Summary. -------------- As a Friend, Senator Gives Sober Assessment -------------- ¶2. (C) Senator Brownback reviewed his record of strong support for OIF and the U.S. political atmosphere on Iraq. The Republicans had lost November Congressional elections over Iraq and public support for the war is decreasing. The Democratic Party base opposes the war and long-term Congressional funding is in doubt. To many Americans, Iraq is looking more and more like a fight between Sunnis and Shiites in which the U.S. has no stake. ¶3. (C) The Senator warned that absent a dramatic change for the better, there could be a rapid U.S. pullout. U.S. casualties were eroding public support and a way must be found to reduce them. Emphasizing he was speaking as a friend, the Senator assessed the current situation as serious. -------------- PM Emphasizes Building Up Iraqi Forces -------------- ¶4. (C) PM Maliki thanked the Senator for his and USG support which, he pointed out, had resulted in freedom, democracy and "human values" in Iraq. He agreed with the Senator's assessment and said he wanted to help reduce U.S. public pressure. The PM said the present environment is difficult, and promised to do "whatever it takes" to turn things around, including military measures that might result in higher Iraqi casualties. ¶5. (C) The PM said that the USG and GOI have not yet been able to build up Iraqi forces sufficiently, but predicted that enough progress would be made in three months to allow U.S. forces to pull back. He appealed for accelerated equipping and training of Iraqi forces, which he said would allow U.S. troops to retire to bases. The PM expressed optimism about the new Baghdad security plan. ¶6. (C) Iraq would also reach out to other countries in the region that are interfering in Iraq and making life difficult. The PM told the Senator a series of Iraqi delegations is traveling to regional countries, including Iran and Syria. The PM singled out Syria as the country from which most terrorists come. -------------- Iran Using Iraq for "Proxy War" Against U.S. -------------- ¶7. (C) The PM noted the GOI has extant security agreements with Iran. The problem is bilateral tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have turned Iraq into a "confrontation land" in which Iran is staging a proxy war against the U.S. with IEDs. The PM predicted U.S. casualties in Iraq would decrease if the U.S. and Iran solved their bilateral problems. ¶8. (C) However, the PM said the GOI had received "a signal" from Iran in the wake of the MNF-I detention of two Iranian Qods Force members that showed "a change in their thinking." Iran had sent a letter, the PM said, saying that it seeks dialogue with the U.S., not confrontation. -------------- PM Blames Ba'athists for Most Violence -------------- ¶9. (C) Asked by the Senator whether most violence in Iraq is the product of a sectarian fight, the PM said there is some sectarian violence, but most of the killing is done by ex-Ba'athists. At least some Ba'athist insurgents are betting they could return to power. They are using BAGHDAD 00000127 002 OF 002 killings in Iraq to paint a "distorted picture" that Iraq is failing. ¶10. (C) The Senator asked whether establishing separate Shiite and Sunni regions would mitigate violence. The PM doubted this would be a viable solution, since Iraq includes many mixed Shiite/Sunnis areas, most notably Baghdad. Instead, the answer is to reduce sectarianism. -------------- Withdrawing U.S. Troops -------------- ¶11. (C) Senator Brownback asked if withdrawal of a significant number of U.S. troops would be possible in the next 12 months. The PM said it would be possible in three months if the process of building Iraqi forces is speeded up. In terms of equipment, Iraq is not seeking heavy equipment such as tanks and ships, but rather, the light to medium weaponry. ¶12. (C) The Senator assessed it would not be possible for the USG to sustain a war with one political party against it. He hoped that, through U.S. troop withdrawals that would reduce the U.S. presence to around 50,000 and pullbacks to bases, the war effort could reach a point that would garner bipartisan support. However, the Democratic Party would not support a troop surge. ¶13. (C) The PM asked why the USG would surge troops if that would create problems. Instead, he suggested, the alternative would be to create more Iraqi forces. The PM again predicted that a "serious" effort to train and equip Iraqi forces would allow the U.S. to reduce its presence in three months. The Senator replied that U.S. commanders said that Iraqi forces had failed to perform adequately. The PM attributed shortcomings to poor recruitment practices instituted by the CPA, which the GOI had since changed. -------------- Confronting Militias -------------- ¶14. (C) Senator Brownback asked whether the PM would confront Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army (JAM) militia. The PM said this was not a major military challenge; the JAM's size and strength had been exaggerated. In the past, Iraqi army and police had not confronted militias, but now they are beginning to. ¶15. (U) Senator Brownback did not clear this message. KHALILZAD