BAGHDAD SECURITY PLAN FAILING TO HELP IDPS RETURN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001147

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD SECURITY PLAN FAILING TO HELP IDPS RETURN

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Joseph Gregoire for reasons 1.4 (B) and
(D).


1. (C) Summary: Baghdad PRT contacts say the Baghdad
Security Plan (BSP) is failing to improve security conditions
enough to allow internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return
to their homes. Members of the Baghdad Provincial Council
committee for migration and displacement told PRToff March 29
that few IDPs are returning to their homes and displacements
continue. A staff aide for Ahmad Chalabi, chairman of
popular mobilization for the BSP, said IDPs will not return
to their homes until U.S. forces deploy in the areas from
which they fled. The liaison officer Chalabi appointed to
head the popular committee in Mansour said security in west
Baghdad is a &disaster8; most IDPs will not return because
they know U.S. forces will leave eventually, leaving them to
face alone the threats that forced them they flee. End
summary.

36,000 Internally Displaced Families Registered in Baghdad
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2. (C) Members of the Provincial Council (PC) committee for
displacement and migration told PRToff that about 36,000
displaced families (consisting of an average of six family
members, for a total of about 216,000 people) have registered
with the PC. PC members said that data gathered from
Baghdad,s nine district advisory councils (DACs) and five
out of six qadas (outlying areas of Baghdad Province)
indicates that the following numbers of displaced families
have relocated to the following areas:

9 Nissan: 5,535 families
Sadr City: 2,071 families
Kadhamiya: 6,266 families
Adhamiya: 2,500 families
Karada: 750 families
Rashid: 2,590 families
Mansour: 2,550 families
Rusafa: 300 families
Karkh: 210 families
Al-Mada,en: 2,200 families
Tarmiya: 3,750 families
Taji: 750 families
Istiqlal: 1,500 families
Mahmoudiya: 280 families
Total: 31,376 families

PC members did not have data on displaced families living in
Abu Ghraib and said that some 5,000 more families have
registered since the above data was collated, bringing the
number of displaced families registered in Baghdad to about
36,000. They also said many families do not register their
displacement, particularly Sunni families wary of approaching
the predominantly Shia government. (Note: Displaced families
are supposed to register with the DAC or qada council in the
area in which they resettle. The DACs and qadas collate the
data and provide it to the PC. End note.)

IIP Reneges on Promise to Help Sunni IDPs Register
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3. (C) PC members said the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) had
agreed to register Sunni displaced families who were hesitant
to deal directly with the predominantly Shia government. PC
members said the IIP has collected registration data from an
unknown number of Sunni displaced families, but has refused
to pass the forms to the PC. (The documentation includes a
photo of the head of a family, a copy of the jinsiya (a basic
ID often updated) and ration card of the head of a family,
the name of the head of a family, the number of family
members, a family,s ration card number, the name of the
previous ration center, the address from which a family has
fled, the address where a family currently lives, whether
family members have been killed in terrorist attacks, the
date a family fled their previous residence, whether a family
rented or owned the home from which they fled, mobile
telephone number, and additional comments.) Asked why the
IIP had refused to pass the information to the PC, contacts
told PRToff that the IIP is reluctant to deal with the
predominantly Shia PC. (Note: The Baghdad PC consists of 51
members, 49 of whom are Shia. End note).

Dire Security Conditions Prevent IDPs from Returning
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4. (C) Iraqi Sunni and Shia contacts told PRToff that the BSP
is failing to improve security conditions enough to allow
IDPs to return to their homes. Members of the Baghdad PC
committee for migration and displacement told PRToff March 29
that few IDPs are returning to their homes, in spite of
claims by the national government that a key priority of the
BSP is facilitating the return of IDPs.

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5. (C) PC members said reporting from Baghdad,s various DACs
and qadas indicates that few of the 36,000 displaced families
registered in Baghdad province have returned to their homes.
PC members said about 500 Sunni and Shia families have
returned to the Husseiniya area (north of the northern
Baghdad Shaab neighborhood),not because of an improvement in
security there, but because they were unable to support
themselves on the run and were receiving no help from the
Iraqi government. PC members added that many of the Shia
IDPs who returned to Husseiniya had been squatting in Shaab
and many of the Sunni IDPs had been squatting in Qadisiya.


6. (C) PC members said about 20-25 Sunni families have
returned to Shula because of marginal improvements in
security. They added that the few families that return to
their homes typically try to do so in groups in order to
provide collective security.


7. (C) PC members said that the prime minister,s office has
begun offering registered displaced families 100,000 Iraqi
dinars (about USD 79.00) and registered displaced families
who return to their homes 250,000 Iraqi dinars (about USD
197.00). They said that receiving either payment requires
lengthy paperwork and repeated visits to government offices.


8. (C) PC members said anecdotal reporting indicates that
several displaced families who have returned to their homes
in Dora have been murdered. Photos of their dismembered
bodies were said to have been distributed as a warning to
other IDPs considering returning.


9. (C) Wameed Al-Mekhlibe, staff aide for Ahmad Chalabi,
chairman of the popular mobilization strand of the BSP, told
PRToff April 1 that most IDPs will not return to their homes
until U.S. forces deploy in the areas from which they fled.
Al-Mekhlibe said average Iraqis have little faith in the
ability of Iraqi security forces to protect them, adding that
in many areas Iraqi security forces had participated in
displacing families.


10. (C) Al-Mekhlibe said Chalabi has requested 100 million
Iraqi dinars from the prime minister,s office to distribute
payments to displaced families that return to their homes,
but added that he does not expect the request will be
granted. Al-Mekhlibe said Chalabi would like to provide
returning families with one million dinars (USD 790) each,
which would amount to compensation for only 100 families.


11. (C) Popular committee liaison officer for Mansour, Emad
Al-Samarrie, said families displaced from west Baghdad will
not return because the situation there is a &disaster.8
Al-Samarrie said far too few U.S. forces have deployed in
west Baghdad to provide security necessary for IDPs to
return, and many would not return even if more U.S. forces
patrolled the area. He said average citizens say that
militias and insurgents are lying low for now, but once U.S.
forces draw down, they eventually will be left to face the
threats that forced them to flee in the first place. (Note:
Emad Al-Samarrie, a Sunni and former Baathist, was the
military intelligence chief for the Wasit and Diyala
provinces under the previous regime. Chalabi says he
recruited Al-Samarrie as a liaison officer to reach out to
former Baathists and insurgents in west Baghdad. Al-Samarrie
says he moves regularly within west Baghdad to avoid
assassination by Shia militiamen linked to the Badr Brigade
or Jaysh Al-Mehdi. End note.)

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Several PRT contacts have said that sectarian
cleansing continues across the city in spite of the Baghdad
Security Plan. Our interlocutors are not optimistic that
IDPs will return to their homes unless U.S. forces
unambiguously control the areas from which they fled.
Although our contacts from across the political spectrum say
that increased U.S. forces are necessary to pacify the city,
they routinely add that insurgents and militias will simply
wait for a U.S. drawdown to resume their violence eventually.
CROCKER