OPPOSITION PASOK TRIES -- AND FAILS -- TO TOPPLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ATHENS 000255 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV GR SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PASOK TRIES -- AND FAILS -- TO TOPPLE KARAMANLIS GOVERNMENT REF: ATHENS 145 Classified By: DCM TOM COUNTRYMAN. REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On February 2, opposition PASOK leader George Papandreou publicly challenged Prime Minister Karamanlis' government, calling for a censure (i.e., "no confidence") vote in Parliament and immediate elections. After a weekend of debate, his motion was soundly defeated. Most analysts had confidently predicted Karamanlis' victory. Papandreou won something too -- party unity on the hot topic of education reform. But the challenge also conveniently masked Papandreou's flip-flop on education. Monday-morning quarterbacks from both parties are claiming victory; timing of elections remains up in the air. END SUMMARY. PAPANDREOU ISSUES A CHALLENGE . . . ¶2. (C) When Papandreou called for a "no confidence" vote on February 2, his timing was well-chosen. Karamanlis' New Democracy had just experienced a committee-level revolt by six deputies, leading some to question ND's unity. Papandreou seized the moment to solidify his own party, reversing his earlier support for ND's proposed constitutional amendment on educational reform (reftel), which had split PASOK's leaders. Papandreou accused the Karamanlis administration of committing "crimes" against the country, saying the Prime Minister governed with the help of undisclosed "special interests." Papandreou also announced that PASOK was withdrawing from the committee process of revising articles of the constitution and demanded early elections. . . . TO COVER HIS POLICY FLIP-FLOP ¶3. (C) Few had expected Papandreou to go on the attack. But Papandreou has been under intense pressure from senior party members to challenge the government; sources say he took the decision after consultation with PASOK's Political Council. By deciding to withdraw from debate on amending the constitution, he has reversed his own position. Papandreou -- despite strong opposition within PASOK -- had, up to now, backed Karamanlis' effort to amend the constitution to allow for educational reform, including private universities. The withdrawal of PASOK's support will solidify his electoral appeal to PASOK's base, including teachers unions and students. It is likely to cost him among centrist voters, since a majority of Greeks support education reform. Karamanlis will likely move the constitutional amendment ahead; he does not need PASOK's votes for it to pass. However, he will not have the "supermajority" necessary to make legislating the specifics easier in future. KARAMANLIS WON'T BE RUSHED ¶4. (C) Karamanlis used the weekend debate to counter-attack, charging that PASOK was trying to stop reform and sabotage the constitutional amendment process "so that nothing changes." Karamanlis reiterated that "elections will be held when it's time" and emphasized his government's determination to finish constitutional revisions. The smaller leftist parties both predictably blasted the two big players, accusing them of "collusion;" Communist KKE directed most of its criticism against PASOK. In the end, Papandreou's motion failed, 164 to 122, with PASOK and "Coalition of the Left" members voting against the government and the Communist party abstaining. WHAT DOES IT MEAN? ¶5. (C) Commentators are divided over who really "won" the debate. Karamanlis will likely continue to push constitutional reform legislation forward, though it will be more difficult without PASOK's backing. And he has successfully fended off early elections, making clear that he alone will choose the date (and that he will choose one that suits ND). But Papandreou has gained too. His bold move caught critics by surprise, and gave PASOK a platform to challenge ND in prime time. Papandreou emerges from the debate with a more unified party and enhanced stature as its leader. But that unity may cost him the centrist votes he needs to win an election. His reversal on education reform will handicap his ability to come back to the issue constructively in the future. RIES