GREECE: NIE "NO EFFECT" ON IRAN POLICY

S E C R E T ATHENS 002349 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2017 TAGS: MNUC KNNP IR PARM GR SUBJECT: GREECE: NIE "NO EFFECT" ON IRAN POLICY REF: A. SECSTATE 162558 ¶B. SECSTATE 165967 Classified By: A/POLCOUNS JEFF HOVENIER. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (S) Embassy delivered ref A points to a number of key officials in the Greek foreign policy apparatus, including: Deputy Director of the PM's Diplomatic Cabinet Ambassador Constantinos Bitsios, Head of the MFA's A7 North American Directorate Grigoris Vassiloconstantakis, senior MFA non-proliferation officer and point-man on Iran/IAEA matters Dionyssios Kyvetos of the D1 International Organizations Directorate, Head of the MFA A6 Middle East Directorate and chief advisor to FM Bakoyannis on Middle East matters Ambassador Vassilis Papaioannou, and A6 Deputy Head Giorgos Ayfantis. Embassy subsequently delivered ref B points to Kyvetos and Papaioannou/Ayfantis. ¶2. (S) Kyvetos said Greece believed the NIE should have "no effect" on how the international community responded to Iran. Although Iran had halted its weaponization and enrichment activities, they could easily take them back up. Greece strongly supported efforts to press for a third sanctions resolution in the UNSC, although Kyvetos expressed doubts that Russia or China would support such a step. Greece was pressing for the December 14 European Council to adopt "strong" conclusions. ¶3. (S) Ayfantis essentially seconded Kyvetos's statements and expanded on next steps. Borrowing from Churchill, he said Iran was a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, and no one really knew what the Iranians were up to. It was clear, however, that they remained dangerous. The NIE demonstrated that the strategy of the international community was working and should be continued. Greece did not believe a "frontal assault" through airstrikes or other military means would be effective and could backfire. Kyvetos also emphasized the need for a "firm but diplomatic" solution. At the same time, Ayfantis said we should work to deprive Iran of support from regional allies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria. Such allies made it possible for Iran to promote itself as a regional power, which was dangerous. Without this support, Iran would be alone in the region and more likely "to come to its senses." SPECKHARD