PAPANDREOU WINS PASOK LEADERSHIP ELECTION -- AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ATHENS 002205 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV GR SUBJECT: PAPANDREOU WINS PASOK LEADERSHIP ELECTION -- AS EXPECTED Classified By: Political Counselor Robin Quinville. Reason: 1.4 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Opposition PASOK leader George Papandreou was re-elected on Sunday following a grueling two-month battle against challenger Evangelos Venizelos. His victory has deflected criticism blaming him for PASOK's loss in September's general elections. Venizelos has no intention of leaving PASOK, and Papandreou will find restructuring the party's leadership and shadow cabinet a challenge. PASOK's electability remains questionable, with many PASOKies harboring on-going doubts about Papandreou's effectiveness. That's good news for governing New Democracy and PM Karamanlis. END SUMMARY SAME AS THE OLD BOSS 2 members and spontaneously declared "friends" of the party to participate. If the procedure sounds chaotic, that's because it was. Voting stations ran short of forms needed for "friends" to declare themselves, and were forced to extend voting hours. There was nothing to prevent members of other parties from registering as "friends" of PASOK to influence the vote, but it is unlikely to have affected the outcome significantly. GEORGE: TAKING A BOW FOR THE NEW REVOLUTION ¶3. (C) Despite a divisive campaign, the visibly exhausted Papandreou emerges stronger within PASOK than he was two months ago. Defeated in two general elections (2004 and 2007),in September Papandreou was seen as a loser who would never be able to beat PM Karamanlis. The leadership fight gave him a chance to call for renewal, and channeled his opponents into the Venizelos camp. But Venizelos's angry personality and professorial arrogance couldn't carry the PASOK "masses." Supporters of Venizelos -- all critics of Papandreou -- are now seen as the losers. VENIZELOS: NOTHING IN THE STREETS LOOKS ANY DIFFERENT TO ME ¶4. (C) Nevertheless, Venizelos has no intention of retiring from PASOK's field. He sees a "great, dynamic, radical tendency" forming within PASOK as a result of the leadership contest. Venizelists believe they have support from younger PASOK voters, and are suggesting that Papandreou's win is based on support from the over-60 crowd. Venizelos can be expected to exploit the youth vote, positioning himself as a "modernizer." But he will have to tread carefully to avoid the appearance of eroding PASOK unity, weakening its overall electability. COMMENT: WON'T GET FOOLED AGAIN? ¶5. (C) Few expect Papandreou to "purge" Venizelos or his supporters from PASOK's ranks. Some suggest Papandreou will call for a unifying party congress prior by April 2008, and he is likely to shuffle PASOK's shadow cabinet to reinforce his "new beginning" message. But Papandreou has always found it difficult to control PASOK's factions: the "barons" who served with his father, Andreas; his own entourage of advisors, and Simitis's technocrats. His leadership campaign flagged the danger of a PASOK split, which would be fatal to its electibility. ¶6. (C) And its electibility remains questionable. Many PASOKies may not have openly opposed Papandreou, but remain skeptical about his long-term leadership. They question whether he has a "vision" that can appeal to voters and bring the party back to power. Former PM Simitis, largely sidelined during this contest, may eventually weigh in. If he does, he is unlikely to back either Papandreou or Venizelos; he would prefer one of his protegees (perhaps Anna Diamantopoulou). The battle to define PASOK has not ended with this leadership fight, it will flare up again in small skirmishes. That's good news for New Democracy and PM Karamanlis. COUNTRYMAN