GREEK ELECTIONS PART II: NEW DEMOCRACY STRUGGLING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ATHENS 001804 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GR SUBJECT: GREEK ELECTIONS PART II: NEW DEMOCRACY STRUGGLING WITH POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS REF: ATHENS 1785 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis called elections for September 16 in mid-August before massive wildfires had taken scores of lives and destroyed valuable forests and property. Poll figures are not conclusive on the political impact of the fires; most observers believe ruling New Democracy (ND) continues to command at least a slight lead over main opposition PASOK. Nevertheless, ND party strategists and observers are mulling various post-election scenarios, from ND maintaining a slim, though still-workable, majority in parliament to no party receiving a majority. The latter would mean either coalition government (which Karamanlis has already publicly rejected) or new elections as soon as possible. END SUMMARY. IMPACT OF THE FIRES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Greek law prohibits publication of opinion polls starting two weeks before a general election. The last polls before the cut-off date -- September 2 -- were inconclusive on whether the recent fires had significantly damaged ND's slight lead over opposition PASOK. For example, over 60 percent of respondents blamed the government for failing to have preventative measures in place. An equal number, however, also believed the government was up against an "organized plan" of arson. In a last-minute poll, over 70 percent believed the fires would have an impact on the election, but only 13 percent suggested PASOK would wQwithin a point or two, ND remained in the lead. CANDIDATES' DEBATE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) A televised debate featuring the leaders of the top six parties on September 6 did not appear to alter this conclusion. Indeed, with few surprises and candidates generally acting true-to-form, most pundits suggested that the debates strengthened preconceived notions about the candidates and parties. The most noteworthy point was PM Karamanlis' open rejection of possible ND cooperation with smaller parties to form a coalition government. Instead, he suggested another round of elections would follow immediately if September 16 did not produce a strong, single-party government. The debate also highlighted Opposition PASOK leader Papandreou's on-going lack of focus on his party's platform. The PASOK leader used his time instead for personal attacks on the PM and an all-round condemnation of ND in government. ¶4. (SBU) The representatives of smaller parties used the debate as the only real opportunity to address a nationwide audience and showcase their respective bring-down-the-big-guys platforms. Leftwing participants Communist Party of Greece (KKE) General Secretary Papariga and Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA or Synaspismos) Chairman Alavanos attacked both major parties as sources of corruption and praised electoral politics that prevented the formation of single-party governments. Neither, however, was prepared to enter a coalition with the big parties due the "ideological chasm" separating them. Far-right LAOS party leader Karatzaferis, on the other hand, was not adverse to a coalition, while Democratic Renewal chairman Papathemelis denied rumors that he was prepared to cooperate with Karamanlis in a post-September 16 administration. SCENARIOS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The fires have inevitably rekindled speculation about a possible five-party parliament post-election, with LAOS seen as the most likely new entrant. Given the complexities of the electoral law, several scenarios are being floated. One four-party variation discussed by ND planners foresees ND receiving just over 43 percent, with PASOK getting 42 percent, resulting in a parliament with an ND majority of 157 seats (of a total 300 parliament seats) versus 116 PASOK seats with the remaining 27 seats split between the KKE and SYRIZA. But if, as some polls are ATHENS 00001804 002 OF 002 predicting, LAOS succeeded in crossing the three-percent threshold for entering parliament, ND's seats could drop to 154 (versus PASOK's 112) with KKE, SYRIZA, and LAOS getting a total of 34 seats. The worst case scenario for either of the major parties would occur if the smaller parties were to make a surprise showing of 16 percent of the total vote, making a single-party government impossible. ¶6. (SBU) Given these scenarios, ND is increasing its efforts in the days remaining before the election to dissuade disaffected voters from crossing into LAOS territory. PASOK is also trying to stem attrition in the direction of KKE and SYRIZA -- while attempting to draw more "borderline" ND voters (i.e. former PASOK supporters who voted for ND in 2004) back into the fold. With just six days left, both parties are pulling out all the stops, convinced -- rightly -- that every vote counts. COUNTRYMAN