MEETING LINO OVIEDO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000940

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2027
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL SNAR PA
SUBJECT: MEETING LINO OVIEDO


Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In the Embassy's first official meeting with Lino
Oviedo since 1999, Pol/Econ Chief informed the coup-plotter
turned presidential candidate the United States views
Paraguay's April 2008 elections an internal matter, and that
the USG will work with anyone who is both elected and governs
democratically. Quickly spinning those comments, Oviedo said
he "was glad the USG did not care about the past and that it
would not take his democratic credentials away again."
Despite Pol/Econ Chief's statement that she did not want to
rehash the past, Oviedo could not resist making the legal
case for his innocence. Oviedo said he wants and needs good
relations with the United States. He called Venezuelan
President Chavez a "dictator" and compared him to former
Paraguayan strongman Stroessner, saying Cuban President Fidel
Castro, Chavez and Stroessner all started the same way.


2. (C) Oviedo promised his presidential campaign would "make
little noise but yield big results." Oviedo predicted that
his competition would be Colorado Party candidate Ovelar,
Beloved Fatherland Party leader Fadul and former Catholic
Bishop Lugo. He also predicted widespread (Colorado-based)
electoral fraud. Oviedo expressed concern for Paraguay's
democracy, explaining its growth was stunted after Stroessner
was overthrown in 1989. Oviedo also highlighted interest in
protecting press freedoms, promoting economic development,
and fighting counternarcotics and intellectual property
violations. Oviedo should not be believed or trusted. He is
familiar with our system, priorities, and concerns, and
tailored his comments accordingly. Oviedo, the likely dark
horse in the April elections, wields significant domestic
power, is rumored to have influential friends in Brazil, and
has name recognition. In spite of his flawed past, he is
attractive to many voters who believe Paraguay needs a strong
president. Septels will explore Oviedo's proposals for
governing, as well as his past. END SUMMARY.

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SETTING THE RULES OF THE GAME
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3. (C) The Embassy held its first official meeting with Lino
Oviedo since 1999 on November 1. Pol/Econ Chief met Oviedo at
7 p.m. at the home of Miguel Otazu, president of the
Independent Party, at Oviedo's invitation. The two-hour
meeting, which took place just two days after Oviedo's civil
and political rights were reinstated, was cordial.


4. (C) Pol/Econ Chief informed Oviedo that the United States
views Paraguay's April 2008 elections as an internal matter,
and that the USG will work with anyone who is elected and
governs democratically. She informed Oviedo that Ambassador
Cason would not meet with any presidential candidates until
after the December and January 2008 party primaries.
Pol/Econ Chief cautioned Oviedo that despite Embassy
turnover, the USG has a strong institutional memory regarding
Paraguay's history and his role in it. Pol/Econ Chief said
she was not there to rehash the past, but to listen to
Oviedo's campaign platform and his plans for governing if
elected. Pol/Econ Chief also provided Oviedo with written
materials on U.S. assistance and Paraguay's Millennium
Challenge Account Threshold Program.


5. (C) Quickly spinning Pol/Econ Chief's comments, Oviedo
said he "was glad the USG did not care about the past and
that it would not take his democratic credentials away
again." Oviedo, who sat quietly during Pol/Econ Chief's short
monologue, smiled and raised his glass (of water),declaring
the day one of the happiest of his life. Oviedo insisted
(and repeated several times during the meeting) that he will
be honest and transparent with the Embassy. He said he
despises "liars and hypocrites" and insisted he would be the
only candidate to tell the truth. "Listen to other
candidates," he said, "and then listen to me. I'll answer
every single one of your questions" (and he did, even
returning to some a half hour into the meeting). "But you
have to treat me in the same fashion," he said. (COMMENT:
Oviedo did an impressive job of attempting to make Pol/Econ
Chief feel she owed him something, even pointing out that he
had not asked her any questions or for any favors, but
clearly implying that he would later. END COMMENT).

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OVIEDO'S OBSESSION WITH HIS PAST
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6. (C) Despite Pol/Econ Chief's statement that she did not
want to rehash the past, Oviedo could not resist making the

legal case for his innocence. He repeatedly insisted that he
neither planned a coup in 1996 nor assassinated Vice
President Argana in 1999, claiming that he was set up and
that then-Ambassador Maura Harty (here October 1997-May 1999)
was tricked ("enganada") into believing lies about him.
Oviedo pointed out that he returned to Paraguay voluntarily
to face justice, even giving the Paraguayan authorities his
flight information. Instead, he said, he could have secured a
seat in the Brazilian Congress. Oviedo emphasized that he
did not make any financial deals to secure his freedom from
Paraguayan justice. He asserted that he could have paid
bribes to get out of jail much sooner, but that instead he
waited for a legal decision granting his freedom. Oviedo
said several times that he "knows all punishments except
death," implying that he had nothing to lose by running for
president.

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INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: THE UNITED STATES, NOT VENEZUELA
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7. (C) Oviedo said he wants and needs good relations with the
United States. He said he always loved the United States but
doesn't want to be an American. Being the United States, he
said, is a "headache," -- "it's hard to be the Dad because
one has to provide for and protect the family." He
acknowledged that the world benefits from the United States'
protection and economic development. Oviedo described
himself as "pragmatic," saying he wants to be friends with
the "big guys," not the little ones. He also asserted he has
friends at the highest political levels in the United States.
"I'll never disrespect you or your country," he said. "Tell
the Ambassador I'm committed to democracy and that I respect
the United States as a superpower." Then he added, "God is
in heaven but works out of Washington" (Dios esta en el cielo
pero dispacha de Washington).


8. (C) Oviedo then called Venezuelan President Chavez a
"dictator," comparing him to former Paraguayan president and
dictator Stroessner (who Oviedo had a personal role in
overthrowing in 1989). Oviedo asserted that Cuban President
Fidel Castro, Chavez and Stroessner all started the same way.
He said "I'm not interested in buying Bolivian gas from
President Morales, and I'm even less interested in buying gas
from Chavez' PDVSA."

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OVIEDO'S CAMPAIGN
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9. (C) Oviedo promised his campaign would "make little noise
but yield big results." He plans to kick it off November 15,
noting that it would not have been appropriate to campaign
before having his full political and civil freedoms
reinstated. Oviedo said he is translating his plan for
governing into English, Guarani, German and Portuguese.
(NOTE: Following the meeting, Oviedo sent Pol/Econ Chief his
program in English; septel. END NOTE). Oviedo lamented that
he "lost ten years of his life" and calculated that he only
has ten more years of good physical health left-- five which
he plans to spend as president and the rest to enjoy with his
family and grandchildren. (COMMENT: Pol/Econ Chief took this
as a message that Oviedo does not plan to seek re-election or
to remain in power past one term. END COMMENT.) Oviedo
assured Pol/Econ Chief that he would not attempt to use the
United States' name to win the election, but confidently
stated he would win "on my own."


10. (C) Oviedo predicted that his competition for the
presidency would be Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar,
Beloved Fatherland Party leader Pedro Fadul and former
Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo (Liberal candidate),in no
particular order. He also predicted widespread electoral
fraud. Oviedo recommended that the United States support a
strong OAS observer mission-- not just "tourists," but a
serious, long-term mission. Oviedo conveyed his lack of
faith in Paraguay's electoral system, citing as an example a
Stroessner electoral win with 92 percent of the vote. (NOTE:
Stroessner overthrew President Federico Chavez via a 1954
coup and was re-elected eight times -- in 1958, 1963, 1968,
1973, 1978, 1983 and 1988. The Colorados have ruled since
1947, the current world record. END NOTE). Oviedo asserted
all the presidential candidates would sign an elections
agreement permitting observers except the Colorado Party,
which has the most to gain from electoral fraud.

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DOMESTIC POLITICS
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11. (C) Oviedo expressed concern for Paraguay's democracy,
explaining that its growth was stunted after Stroessner was
overthrown in 1989. Paraguay "cleaned house," he said, "but
didn't get rid of the bugs," leaving the same corrupt
structure in place. He worried that Paraguayans are losing
faith in democracy, stating that under Stroessner, "there was
no democracy but people ate." "Now," he said, "we have
democracy and they're starving." Given that most of
Paraguay's population is uneducated, he said they were
concluding that democracy does not work.


12. (C) Oviedo also highlighted his interest in protecting
press freedoms, promoting economic development, and fighting
counternarcotics and intellectual property violations. He
made brief pitches in support of a free press (contending
that a weak media better than none at all),and worried about
Paraguayans emigrating abroad, asserting that more than half
of Paraguay's population is overseas. Oviedo said Paraguay's
past is full of examples of political exile, calling today's
emigration "economic exile." On counternarcotics, he briefly
commented that Paraguay's marijuana production could turn his
country into a "Colombia." On intellectual property issues,
he worried about pirated goods, acknowledging how much
technology cost the United States in terms of research and
development. When the meeting ended, Oviedo thanked Pol/Econ
Chief for her patience and offered additional meetings at the
Embassy's convenience.

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COMMENT: PROCEEDING WITH CAUTION
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13. (C) Oviedo should not be believed or trusted. He is
familiar with our system, our priorities in Paraguay, and our
concerns in the region, including the growing influence of
Venezuela and Iran; he tailored his comments accordingly.
While his discourse was intended to sell the Embassy on his
"democratic credentials" -- no matter how disingenuous the
sales pitch may have been -- his interest in good relations
with the United States appeared to be sincere. On several
occasions, when the meeting almost ended, Oviedo launched
into another item on his mental "to do" list, wanting to make
sure he made the most of the meeting. He watched Pol/Econ
Chief carefully for reactions during the encounter and was
intensely engaged, leaning forward in his chair. From time to
time, Oviedo had what can only be described as a crazy glint
in his eyes, perhaps indicative of his commitment to himself
and his vision for Paraguay. Throughout the meeting, Oviedo
was extremely respectful, using the formal "usted" form of
address when the informal "tu" or more common "vos" would
have been appropriate. As the first step in a long
trust-building exercise, Oviedo respected the Embassy's
desire to keep the meeting private and did not share its
occurrence with the press.


14. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Oviedo, the dark horse in the
April elections, wields name recognition and significant
domestic leverage (which he probably relied on to negotiate a
political deal for his freedom). He is rumored to have
unidentified, influential friends in Brazil. In spite of his
flawed past, he is attractive to many voters who believe
Paraguay needs a strong president to bring some order to the
unsettled political scene, tamp down corruption and improve
security. Embassy will continue to explore Oviedo's plans
for governing (if he is elected president),as well as his
past (septel). END COMMENT.

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BIO NOTES
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15. (C) Oviedo made reference to few personal details during
the meeting. However, he mentioned his Argentine wife and
their six children (three boys, three girls, the youngest of
whom is 14). Oviedo said one of his children studied in the
United States and another studied in Germany. He also said
he does not drink alcohol or smoke and looked fit and relaxed
(if not intensely energetic) at the age of 63. END BIO NOTE.


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