COLORADO PRE-CANDIDATE OVELAR WANTS GOOD U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000908

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PA
SUBJECT: COLORADO PRE-CANDIDATE OVELAR WANTS GOOD U.S.
RELATIONS


Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Pre-presidential Colorado Party candidate Blanca
Ovelar told the DCM October 18 that if elected, she wants
good relations with the United States. Ovelar was confident
that she will win both the Colorado Party nomination and the
presidency, but worried that if she is not the Colorado
candidate, her party could lose the presidency to former
coup-plotter Lino Oviedo. Ovelar identified Oviedo as the
true populist in Paraguay's elections and volunteered an
indirect criticism of Chavez by stating his popularity is a
reaction to the unresponsive Venezuelan state. Ovelar
believed (now-former) Vice President Castiglioni lacks what
it takes to govern Paraguay, claiming he has a record of
forcing President Duarte to handle the tough issues alone.
Despite her close association with Duarte, who is
increasingly anti-American in his rhetoric, Ovelar conveyed
warmth and interest in Paraguay's relations with the United
States. END SUMMARY.

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OVELAR INTERESTED IN U.S. ASSISTANCE
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2. (C) Pre-presidential Colorado Party candidate and
President Duarte's hand-picked successor Blanca Ovelar told
the DCM and Pol/Econ chief October 18 that if elected, she
wants good relations with the United States. She underscored
the importance of U.S. assistance to Paraguay and Paraguay's
access to U.S. markets. Ovelar spoke generally about her
goals for economic development, improvements in the health
and education sectors, and modernization of the public
ministry and the military (Ovelar had just come from a
meeting with Defense Minister Roberto Gonzalez). She
emphasized Paraguay's need for technology and was
well-briefed on the benefits of Paraguay's Millennium
Challenge Threshold Program (Plan Umbral). The DCM
highlighted Plan Umbral and other U.S. assistance programs,
including military and scholarship (micro beca) assistance,
and offered future briefings at Ovelar's convenience.

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CONFIDENT OF A WIN
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3. (C) Ovelar was confident that she will win both the
Colorado Party nomination and the presidency, but worried
that if she's not the Colorado candidate, her party could
lose the presidency to former coup-plotter Lino Oviedo.
Assuming that both Oviedo and former Catholic bishop Fernando
Lugo compete in the April 2008 elections, Ovelar believes the
final vote will be divided as follows: Ovelar-40 percent;
Oveido-32 percent; Lugo-24 percent; and Beloved Fatherland
Party candidate Pedro Fadul-12 percent. (NOTE: Math may not
be Ovelar's strong point. We note that the above percentages
add up to 108 percent. END NOTE). Ovelar was so confident of
her pending victory that she repeatedly referred to herself
as president and to current President Duarte as the
"ex-president" during the meeting.

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OVELAR ON HER OPPONENTS
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4. (C) Ovelar identified Oviedo as Paraguay's populist
candidate and volunteered an indirect criticism of Chavez by
stating that his popularity is a reaction to the unresponsive
Venezuelan state even as it is a threat to democracy in
Venezuela. (COMMENT: Ovelar's unsolicited remark seemed to be
intended to assure us that she does not support Chavez, and
that she seeks U.S. political support for Paraguayan
democracy. END COMMENT). After calling Oviedo "unpredictable
and dangerous", Ovelar asserted that Oviedo should be allowed
to compete so he can face electoral defeat, which she said is
the only way to force him out of Paraguayan politics. If
denied the chance to run, she said, he would become "a myth."



5. (C) As to former Vice President Luis Castiglioni, Ovelar
believed he does not have what it takes to govern Paraguay,
calling his record one of hiding from conflict and forcing
Duarte to handle the tough issues alone. She described
Castiglioni as lazy and weak, representing Paraguay's rich
elites and traditional elements of the Colorado Party,
placing herself clearly as the outsider and change agent
within the party. (NOTE: Ovelar's congressional list of
pre-candidates is dominated by entrenched economic interests
and party "dinosaurs" far more than is Castiglioni's. END

NOTE). Ovelar said Duarte chose Castiglioni as his running
mate for the 2003 elections and tried to prepare him for the
presidency, but that his efforts "didn't take" due to
personality conflicts. Ovelar admitted that, according to
Colorado Party polling, she and Castiglioni are in a
technical tie for the party's nomination. Ovelar also noted
speculation (much of it fanned by Duarte) regarding U.S.
support for Castiglioni; we assured her of our neutrality in
Paraguay's elections and confirmed that we will work with
whomever is democratically elected in April.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Ovelar met with us alone, and dominated the first half
of the meeting with a monologue to orient us toward her goals
and vision for Paraguay. She was articulate, passionate
(particularly on the topics of children and educational
issues) and came across as a strong and independent thinker
capable of assuming Paraguay's highest office. While
portions of her discourse seemed designed with her audience
in mind, she had carefully considered both her message and
her tone. Despite Ovelar's previous public statement that
she's proud Paraguay refused U.S. requests to grant immunity
to U.S. soldiers and to send troops to Iraq (warning that
Paraguay won't be a pushover),and despite her close
relations with an increasingly anti-American President
Duarte, Ovelar conveyed warmth and interest in Paraguay's
relations with the United States. We will continue our
dialogue with her and her staff in coming months at the
working level. END COMMENT.


7. (SBU) BIO NOTES: Ovelar was born September 2, 1957 in
Concepcion, Paraguay. She holds an undergraduate degree in
psychology and a masters in education from the National
University of Asuncion. Ovelar began her educational career
in 1978 teaching in primary schools in Concepcion. She then
taught in vocational schools, moving to Asuncion to join the
faulty at the National Technical College from 1984-1993. In
the ministry of education, she served as Director of
Vocational Education and then Director of Teacher Training.
She succeeded President Duarte as Minister of Education in

2001. Ovelar mentioned her father, a socialist who was
tortured during the Stroessner years, on several occasions
during the meeting. Ovelar was proud that as education
minister she changed the historical record by rewriting
Paraguay's textbooks to reflect the negative characteristics
of Stroessner's regime. Ovelar is married with children, and
speaks Spanish and Guarani (she noted that her three children
speak English). Physically, Ovelar is tall, imposing, and
impeccably groomed.

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