LUGO GEARS UP, AS DUARTE MOVES TO BLOCK

UNCLAS ASUNCION 000894 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PASS TO WHA/BSC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL PA SUBJECT: LUGO GEARS UP, AS DUARTE MOVES TO BLOCK REF: ASUNCION 346 ¶1. (U) Pre-presidential candidate and former Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo officially registered his political organization, the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC),with the National Electoral Tribunal (TSJE) September 28. The APC includes eight opposition parties and various political and social movements, including the Radical Liberal Party (PLRA), National Encounter Party (PEN),National Solidarity Party (PPS),Christian Democratic Party (PDC),Febrerista Revolutionary Party (PRF),Amplified Front Party (PFA), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP),and the Movement Toward Socialism Party (P-MAS). Another organization that helped launch Lugo's candidacy, the Tekojoja Movement (Popular Movement for Justice and Equity),refused to join the APC but will nonetheless support Lugo's candidacy. Lugo will run for president as a Christian Democrat, and will formally register his candidacy between December 12 and February 1, 2008 (see Reftel). ¶2. (U) Lugo's political advisors include Deputy Rafael Filizzola, chairman of the Social Democrat Party (PSD); PLRA Senator Juan Carlos Ramirez Montalbetti; PEN Chairman Senator Emilio Camacho; and P-MAS Chairman Camilo Soares. Lugo announced his campaign team October 9, including Chairman Miguel Angel Lopez Perito, Treasurer Martin Heisecke Rivarola, Communications Director Walter Beidermann, and Press Chief Ausberto Rodriguez. ¶3. (U) President Duarte, meanwhile, has arranged a private call on the Pope October 29. Foreign Minister Rubin Ramirez Lezcano visited the Holy See last week. The president reportedly will focus on the Catholic Church in Paraguay, the church's education contributions, and Catholic social teaching, but all recognize that Duarte's real reason for going is to collect ammunition for the Colorados to mount legal efforts to block Lugo from running. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Post expects the ruling Colorados to challenge Lugo's candidacy in February 2008. There will be tremendous political pressure on the TSJE and the Supreme Court to decide Lugo's candidacy according to Colorado party interests. If he survives potential legal challenges, Lugo's running mate will be the Liberal vice presidential candidate (either Central Department Governor Federico Franco or Senator Carlos Mateo Balmelli) chosen by that party's primary December 9. In the meantime, Lugo is hard at work on the campaign trail. While he remains a popular candidate, there is increasing speculation that he will be barred, thus increasing risks for civil unrest in the lead up to April 20th's "winner take all" elections. END COMMENT. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion CASON