LUGO GEARS UP, AS DUARTE MOVES TO BLOCK

UNCLAS ASUNCION 000894

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PASS TO WHA/BSC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL PA
SUBJECT: LUGO GEARS UP, AS DUARTE MOVES TO BLOCK

REF: ASUNCION 346


1. (U) Pre-presidential candidate and former Catholic bishop
Fernando Lugo officially registered his political
organization, the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC),with
the National Electoral Tribunal (TSJE) September 28. The APC
includes eight opposition parties and various political and
social movements, including the Radical Liberal Party (PLRA),
National Encounter Party (PEN),National Solidarity Party
(PPS),Christian Democratic Party (PDC),Febrerista
Revolutionary Party (PRF),Amplified Front Party (PFA),
Progressive Democratic Party (PDP),and the Movement Toward
Socialism Party (P-MAS). Another organization that helped
launch Lugo's candidacy, the Tekojoja Movement (Popular
Movement for Justice and Equity),refused to join the APC but
will nonetheless support Lugo's candidacy. Lugo will run for
president as a Christian Democrat, and will formally register
his candidacy between December 12 and February 1, 2008 (see
Reftel).


2. (U) Lugo's political advisors include Deputy Rafael
Filizzola, chairman of the Social Democrat Party (PSD); PLRA
Senator Juan Carlos Ramirez Montalbetti; PEN Chairman Senator
Emilio Camacho; and P-MAS Chairman Camilo Soares. Lugo
announced his campaign team October 9, including Chairman
Miguel Angel Lopez Perito, Treasurer Martin Heisecke
Rivarola, Communications Director Walter Beidermann, and
Press Chief Ausberto Rodriguez.


3. (U) President Duarte, meanwhile, has arranged a private
call on the Pope October 29. Foreign Minister Rubin Ramirez
Lezcano visited the Holy See last week. The president
reportedly will focus on the Catholic Church in Paraguay, the
church's education contributions, and Catholic social
teaching, but all recognize that Duarte's real reason for
going is to collect ammunition for the Colorados to mount
legal efforts to block Lugo from running.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: Post expects the ruling Colorados to
challenge Lugo's candidacy in February 2008. There will be
tremendous political pressure on the TSJE and the Supreme
Court to decide Lugo's candidacy according to Colorado party
interests. If he survives potential legal challenges, Lugo's
running mate will be the Liberal vice presidential candidate
(either Central Department Governor Federico Franco or
Senator Carlos Mateo Balmelli) chosen by that party's primary
December 9. In the meantime, Lugo is hard at work on the
campaign trail. While he remains a popular candidate, there
is increasing speculation that he will be barred, thus
increasing risks for civil unrest in the lead up to April
20th's "winner take all" elections. END COMMENT.

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