ALL EYES ON OVIEDO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000748

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PA
SUBJECT: ALL EYES ON OVIEDO

REF: ASUNCION 739

Classified By: Pol/econ Chief Joan Shaker; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Supreme Military Tribunal unanimously
decided September 6 to release General Lino Oviedo from jail
on conditional liberty for his attempted 1996 coup (ref).
Despite Oviedo's attorneys' contention that he enjoys full
legal rights, many analysts agree he is not legally entitled
to run for political office. General Oviedo and hundreds of
cheering supporters traveled September 6 to Caacupe via
motorcade to thank Paraguay's patron saint for his release.
Once there, Oviedo gave a fifty-minute speech to the
assembled crowd of 5,000, confirming he would "fight without
concession" to be Paraguay's next president. National
Coalition representatives said they would not alter their
Fernando Lugo-Liberal Party ticket in light of Oviedo's
release, but Oveido's party UNACE is urging them to
reconsider. Oviedo's emotionally-charged liberation caused a
small media circus here which is likely to continue in coming
weeks. END SUMMARY.

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OVIEDO'S LEGAL STATUS
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2. (SBU) The Supreme Military Tribunal unanimously decided
September 6 to release General Lino Oviedo from jail on
conditional liberty for his attempted 1996 coup (ref). The
tribunal, comprised of three military colonels, determined
that Oviedo had served half of his 10-year sentence, counting
the time he served from June to December 2001 in Brazil. The
tribunal explained that on conditional liberty (the
Paraguayan equivalent of parole),Oviedo may move freely
within Paraguay, but cannot leave the country or keep company
with "persons of ill repute" without risking revocation of
his parole. (NOTE: Legal scholars disagree about what
"persons of ill repute" means, but it seems Oviedo has a
fairly long leash in terms of his possible political
contacts. END NOTE).


3. (SBU) Despite Oviedo's attorneys' contention that he
enjoys full legal rights, many analysts agree he is not
legally entitled to run for political office pursuant to
Article 153 of the constitution because he has a judicial
sentence pending against him. National Electoral Tribunal
(TSJE) President Juan Morales said publicly that Oviedo may
ask the TSJE to reinstitute his rights and noted that the
charges against him would have to be dismissed before he
could run for president. Several Colorado party leaders
reminded the public that Oviedo cannot yet compete in
elections; President Duarte publicly stated that he did not
intervene with the military tribunal on Oviedo's behalf.

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HIS FIRST DAY OUT AND ABOUT
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4. (SBU) General Oviedo and hundreds of cheering supporters
traveled September 6 to Caacupe via motorcade (with Oviedo in
his attorney's Mercedes Benz) to thank Paraguay's patron
saint for his release. The caravan, which ran red lights and
caused traffic jams along the route, slowed as it approached
the church so Oviedo could walk the last leg of the journey.
According to press reports, Oviedo broke into a jog, forcing
the crowd, including Senators Enrique Gonzalez Quintana and
Jorge Oviedo Tatio and Deputy Gustavo Mussi, to keep up. The
crowd squeezed into the church, where Oviedo, surrounded by
armed body guards, family members and supporters, bowed to
pray. (As they entered the church, the crowd, pushing to get
closer to Oviedo, allegedly damaged the church. Several
reporters also claimed Oviedo's bodyguards roughed them up in
their attempts to protect him).


5. (SBU) Following his visit to the Virgin of Caacupe, Oviedo
gave a fifty-minute speech (mostly in Guarani) to the
assembled crowd of 5,000, confirming that he would "fight
without concession" to be Paraguay's next president. "I want
the Paraguayan people to be the protagonists of their own
present and future," he said, "using the past as a
lesson...." He called upon his followers to return to
politics "without hate, without lies." Oviedo promised to
visit the country's impoverished interior to speak to the
people. He also claimed he did not make any political deals
to secure his release. Promising to govern following the
April election, Oviedo said "he who laughs last laughs best."
Later in the day, a more somber but still-emotional Oviedo
gave a television interview in which he said he spent many
sleepless nights worrying about employment, security and
equality of opportunity for the Paraguayan people, and his
desire "to end poverty and ignorance." Oviedo stressed that
"it's one thing to be in charge, another to govern."
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OVIEDO'S IMPACT ON ELECTIONS?
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6. (SBU) National Coalition (CN) representatives said they
would not alter their Fernando Lugo-Liberal Party ticket in
light of Oviedo's release, but Oveido's party UNACE is urging
them to reconsider. In response to questions about whether he
would negotiate an alliance with the National Coalition,
Oviedo steered a neutral course, stating that his highest
goal is to respond to the needs of the "suffering people,"
not to squabble over who should lead that effort. In a
television interview late September 6, Oviedo noted that the
National Coalition "was not formed to follow one person but
to form a program to govern the country."

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Oviedo's emotionally-charged liberation caused a small
media circus here, with all eyes likely to remain on Oviedo
for the coming weeks. Television and press reports showed
throngs of Oviedo supporters shedding tears of joy, with
Oviedo himself crying upon completion of his pilgrimage to
Caacupe. Demonstrations continue to be peaceful; Oviedo
followers plan a march for late September 7. Throughout the
day of the 6th, Oviedo carefully stayed on his populist
message, wisely leaving partisan politics to others.
Clearly, however, he intends to enter the presidential race.
Before he can, the courts will have to sort out his legal
rights, and the political opposition (namely the National
Coalition) will have to decide whether they will fare better
with or without him. END COMMENT.


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