A CHAT WITH LUGO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000722 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV PA SUBJECT: A CHAT WITH LUGO Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Presidential pre-candidate Fernando Lugo spoke confidently about his legal ability to run for the presidency in an August 27 meeting with DCM and Pol/Econ Chief, but failed to provide any details about his campaign platform or plans for governing Paraguay. While reluctant to define what he represents, Lugo was more comfortable talking about what he is not, denying ties to Chavez, the FARC, or to kidnapping operations in Paraguay. Lugo spoke passionately about the Paraguayan people's desire for change, employment, security, and improved health and education services. He expressed concern regarding the possibility of electoral fraud and underscored the importance of international observers for both the December/January primaries and the April 20 election. While the meeting was a positive step forward in our dialogue with Lugo, he continues to fail to provide any real insight into who he is, or how he might govern. END SUMMARY. -------------- LUGO CONFIDENT ABOUT HIS CANDIDACY -------------- ¶2. (C) Presidential pre-candidate Fernando Lugo spoke confidently about his legal ability to run for the presidency in an August 27 meeting with DCM and Pol/Econ Chief. He acknowledged that other political parties (likely the Colorados) may seek to disqualify him as a candidate, but summarily set those concerns aside by stating that the best jurists in the country say he can run given his resignation from his position as a Catholic bishop. Neither Lugo nor either of his two advisors in attendance mentioned a political or legal strategy to defeat attempts to impugn him. They stated the decision would be based on political as opposed to legal grounds, and Lugo said that if he is disqualified, he will institute a hunger strike. They also noted that international mediation could become a means to resolve the dispute further down the road. -------------- WHAT DOES LUGO STAND FOR? -------------- ¶3. (C) In response to the DCM's questions about his campaign platform and plans for governing Paraguay, Lugo provided few, if any, details. His initial response, a non sequitur, cited an agreement that he planned to sign with Social and Popular Block (now comprised of the Liberal party, leftist social sectors and labor unions) later that evening, which would 
confirm his ability to run for president. (NOTE: According to press reports, the agreement signed late August 27 also provided that the Liberal Party will withdraw from the April 2008 elections if Lugo is disqualified. Neither the Beloved Fatherland Party nor General Ovideo's UNACE signed the agreement. END NOTE). During the meeting, he and his advisors (a disgruntled Colorado and a Liberal) disagreed on several points, but agreed Lugo's platform would be that of the Liberal Party. Lugo said that many people ask "what's behind Lugo." His almost-too-honest answer was "nothing." ¶4. (C) While reluctant to define what he represents, Lugo was more comfortable saying what he is not, denying ties to Chavez, the FARC, or to kidnapping operations in Paraguay. One advisor said Paraguay's next government would be transitional, regardless of who wins, and that it could follow either the Rhodesian or South African models of change. All agreed the path should be democratic, and Lugo said his government would find its own way, implying it would follow neither the United States nor Venezuela. (NOTE: In a speech following the meeting, Lugo said "there will not be any foreign power, small or large, that will tell us how to manage Paraguay's destiny." END NOTE). Lugo noted that he had just returned from Ecuador, where he said President Correa is generating too much confrontation. Lugo laughed when one of his advisors said people call him a socialist, and in a serious tone, affirmed that he has no ties to the FARC and that he is not using the proceeds of a past Paraguayan kidnapping to finance his campaign. When the DCM asked why Lugo does not respond to these allegations publicly, Lugo said only Christ would judge him. ¶5. (C) Lugo spoke passionately about the Paraguayan people's desire for change, employment, security, and improved health and education services. He declared that both he and the Paraguayan people are tired of discrimination, exclusion and corruption, lamenting the Colorado Party's complete control of society. Lugo said he is planning three separate national tours of the country to listen to citizens' complaints, to receive proposals (he said he's in this phase now),and to announce his plan for governing. He said the Paraguayan people have shown him great support, and that his team spent only USD 2 on a recent campaign trip across Amambay Department, with Paraguayans along his route paying for his lodging and food. -------------- LUGO OPEN TO ELECTIONS ASSISTANCE -------------- ¶6. (C) Lugo expressed concern regarding the possibility of electoral fraud, citing examples of 150-year-olds on the master voting list and bribes to co-opt political party officials at the local level. He confirmed that foreign donation to candidates/campaigns were illegal. Lugo said a bill will soon be presented to Congress which would require voters to sign the voting list when they submit their votes in an effort to reduce a portion of the fraud. The DCM asked how the USG could assist with elections; Lugo underscored the importance of international observers for both the December/January primaries and the April 20 election. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) While the meeting served as a positive step forward in our dialogue with Lugo, he has still failed to provide any real insight into who he is or how he might govern. Lugo's reserved and down-to-earth manner seem out of place in Paraguayan politics, but his humanity, including his admitted political vulnerabilities, make him a likable interlocutor. In discussions about possible challenges to his candidacy, Lugo's unsophisticated "wait and see" attitude made it seem that he is either unaware of the political realities here or is confident he can overcome them. Likewise, his slowness in defining his political program makes him appear disorganized, if not evasive. In any case, Lugo's political future lies in the hands of a politicized judiciary, controlled by the Colorados, which will likely decide whether to disqualify him depending on how such a decision would benefit Colorado interests. END COMMENT. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion CASON