SCENE-SETTER FOR LT. GEN. SEIP'S VISIT TO PARAGUAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000689 SIPDIS SIPDIS PASS TO WHA/BSC E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MARR MASS SNAR PA SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR LT. GEN. SEIP'S VISIT TO PARAGUAY Classified By: DCM MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK; Reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Embassy Asuncion warmly welcomes Lt. Gen. Seip August 21-22. Your visit provides an opportunity to promote U.S. interests in strengthening democratic institutions, promoting sound economic policies and good governance, disrupting criminal organizations, and combating terrorist financing. You come at a particularly sensitive time, with President Duarte weakened and much of the body politic focused on presidential elections scheduled for April ¶2008. Neighboring governments and segments within Paraguay routinely call into question important aspects of our security relationship. Many Paraguayans, however, both inside and outside the government, support closer U.S. ties as a political and economic counterbalance to the influence Brazil wields over Paraguay and in response to concern about growing cooperation between Venezuela and Bolivia, including in the military sphere. END SUMMARY. -------------- The Political Scene -------------- ¶2. (C) Your visit comes four years into the five-year presidency of Nicanor Duarte Frutos. In that time, Duarte has taken steps to deal with a pressing fiscal crisis, to revive the economy, and to fight corruption. In the last year, however, political support for Duarte has sagged with polls indicating the general population is not satisfied his government has taken adequate measures to create jobs, improve the economy and tackle corruption. Duarte has also shifted to the left, formally declaring (to wide desision) the Colorado Party as "socialist," criticizing President Bush and stressing greater appreciation for Venezuelan President Chavez and Venezuela,s "commitment" to the region. It seems that Duarte has put aside his designs on re-election for now, and has hand-picked former Minister of Education Blanca Ovelar to be his successor. Duarte,s unabashedly pro-U.S. vice president, Luis Castiglioni, will compete with Ovelar for the Colorado Party,s nomination. Several political "wild card" candidates have the potential to wreak havoc in the elections and end 60 years of Colorado Party rule. Leftist (and resigned priest) Fernando Lugo represents the opposition's leading candidate, although he faces a potential legal barrier to office because the constitution bars religious "ministers" from seeking political office. Additionally, former coup plotter General Lino Oviedo may soon be released from prison on conditional parole, and could be legally enabled to run for the presidency in the coming months. -------------- Paraguay's Public Security Challenges -------------- ¶3. (C) Twelve members of the Free Fatherland Party (PPL) - a far-left, rural-based political movement - were found guilty in 2006 for the kidnapping and murder of the daughter of former president Raul Cubas. The Cubas murder suggested the emergence of a political movement bent on provoking instability through violence. A culture of distrust hampers the ability of Paraguay's law enforcement community and military to tackle rising concerns about public security; Paraguay,s National Police are widely disparaged by the general population as incompetent and corrupt, and the police and military are rivals, not partners. The Cubas killing and evidence of involvement by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) shocked Paraguay,s leaders and population. Paraguay has since increased cooperation with Colombia and the United States on intelligence and other security measures. Concern over the PPL has died down since the convictions, but internal security concerns have risen. Of late, major robberies, including the August theft of USD 1 million at the airport in Asuncion, and kidnappings of an apparently criminal nature, including that of Hizballah financier Mohammad Barakat, are on the rise. -------------- - Reforming the Economy, But Growth Insufficient -------------- -- ¶4. (U) Paraguay's formal economy relies heavily on agriculture. It features bloated but weak state institutions and the heavy involvement of state-owned enterprises. There is also considerable activity involving the trading of imported contraband and counterfeit products destined for Brazil or Argentina. On a macroeconomic level, Paraguay,s economic growth reached four percent in 2006 and inflation was 12.5 percent. However, while the government succeeded early on in getting some significant economic reform laws through Congress, progress over the past three years has slowed. Conflicts between Congress and the Duarte administration have all but frozen any reform efforts that require legislation; the Congress has rejected several IDB, EU, and Japanese loans and suspended the implementation of a personal income tax for the next year. Paraguay needs to sustain annual economic growth rates of at least five percent, and must also undertake deeper structural reforms. But as the 2008 presidential election approaches, inadequate political will exists to take on tough economic reform. -------------- International Crime and Counter Terrorism -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Tri-Border Area (TBA),where Paraguay, Brazil, and Argentina meet, is a primary USG concern. The area, with its loose borders and lax controls, is a hub for trans-national criminal activity including drug trafficking, trafficking in persons, arms trafficking, intellectual piracy, document forgery, contraband, as well as a source of Hamas and Hizballah financing. Brazil has tightened its border controls with positive results, but significant money continues to flow out of the Lebanese community in Ciudad del Este (CDE) to the Middle East. Paraguay is widely regarded as the weakest link in combating the illicit activities that occur in the TBA. Corruption at multiple levels undercuts law enforcement efforts. Nevertheless, Paraguay has taken serious steps to address its institutional deficiencies by creating special units, principally in Customs and the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MIC) to investigate intellectual property rights (IPR) violations and customs fraud. The MIC,s Specialized Technical Unit (UTE) has made many significant seizures of counterfeit products with State INL and Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Threshold Program assistance. ¶6. (SBU) Paraguay's Anti-Money Laundering Secretariat (SEPRELAD) has also received U.S. technical assistance and support. The Paraguayan Congress passed a new criminal code August 9 which includes anti-money laundering provisions, and should become law within 110 days unless President Duarte exercises his veto. Although the Chamber of Deputies passed counter-terrorism (CT) legislation as part of the criminal code, the Senate - faced with rising public protests fearing potential abuses - removed it from the final version. Unless the Chamber acts to reincorporate the bill's CT legislation, the Senate,s version of the criminal code will stand. A modern criminal procedures bill will also be presented to Congress in the near future. ¶7. (SBU) Paraguay is a major transshipment point for cocaine and other narcotics from Colombia and Bolivia to Brazil. Much of the northwestern part of the country is barren and uninhabited, and the authorities suffer difficulties enforcing the law due to geography and the political and judicial power some drug traffickers wield. The Anti-Drug Secretariat (SENAD),the single-most effective law SIPDIS enforcement body in Paraguay, coordinates interdiction efforts, with significant assistance from the DEA and support from U.S. Special Forces advisors. Working closely with the United States, SENAD has effectively targeted Brazilian trafficking groups based in Pedro Juan Caballero (PJC) on Paraguay's northern border with Brazil. SENAD has made a number of significant arms seizures with evidence signaling links to Brazil,s PCC and Colombia,s FARC in PJC and Asuncion. Presently, SENAD is hard-pressed to meet challenges in CDE due to a lack of resources (its national annual budget is just $2 million). SENAD inaugurated a helipad in PJC April 11, the second phase of a State Department-funded project to create a regional SENAD operational base. ¶8. (SBU) Despite kidnappings, violent radicals, FARC activities, and Hezbollah fundraising, Paraguay is reluctant to take a lead in the war on terrorism beyond its borders due to pressure from Brazil and fears of terrorist reprisals. In addition, memories of abuses under the Stroessner dictatorship (1954-1989) still cast a long shadow. Given false allegations that the United States wants to establish a military base in Paraguay, we recommend focusing interlocutors on attacking corruption and crime as a way to improve Paraguay's international image. ¶9. (U) Paraguay and Bolivia signed a security-defense agreement at the end of March, which included a joint communique on dengue fever. The agreement aims to improve communication and information exchange as a way to address mutual suspicions. It also details plans for the 6th High Military Command Meeting in Asuncion September 10-12 to increase military-to-military exchanges and improve ties. -------------- U.S. Activities -------------- ¶10. (SBU) USG activities in Paraguay focus on strengthening democratic institutions, promoting sound economic policies and good governance, disrupting criminal organizations, and combating terrorist financing. Post maintains bilateral assistance programs dealing with combating narcotics trafficking, money laundering, intellectual property violations, and trafficking in persons. A Department of Justice Resident Legal Advisor and advisors from Treasury's Office of Technical Assistance have worked behind-the-scenes over the last three years to assist the Paraguayan government to add money laundering to the criminal code now awaiting the president,s signature. Paraguay has expressed interest in acquiring U.S. technical assistance to develop its National Security Strategy and National Defense Plan. USAID and the Peace Corps also have programs in the country. Paraguay sought to meet entry requirements to join the MCC Millennium Challenge Account, which focuses on combating impunity and informality. It did not qualify for full participation in the program because of its poor record on corruption, but did qualify for a USD 35 million MCC Threshold Program. ¶11. (C) Notwithstanding President Duarte's decision last October not to extend SOFA protections to U.S. military personnel, U.S. military cooperation with Paraguay has continued, albeit under a lower profile. While MEDRETES have been temporarily suspended, teams of Special Forces trainers are resident, developing the skills of Paraguayan counterparts throughout the year. This subject is sensitive, and we do not trumpet it in public. We continue to negotiate the terms of a new SOFA but are not optimistic about prospects for progress prior to the April 2008 elections. As a stop-gap measure, we concluded a 505 Assurance Agreement with the government through an exchange of notes with the Foreign Ministry. This agreement enabled us to proceed with disbursement of USD 1.1 million for GPOI funds. We also provided Paraguay with some of the USD 3.5 million in 1208 funds allocated for weapons and other equipment. -------------- The Military's Mission -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Paraguay's military is a small force struggling to redefine its mission despite insufficient funding and intermittent scandals. The Army is the largest of the three services (6,000),followed by the Navy (2,000) and Air Force (1,200). The military's primary missions are to protect Paraguay's territorial integrity, defend the legitimate authorities in accordance with the constitution, and cooperate in civil defense. It does not play a leading role in counter drug operations, although the military provides a specialized tactical unit to support SENAD. The military's Special Forces unit is in the process of organizing a company-size counter-terrorism unit, and the Presidential Guard Unit has a specialized counter-terrorist platoon. More recently, Paraguay has attempted to increase its presence in international peacekeeping operations. Brazil supports Paraguay's deployment of 33 troops to Haiti. ¶13. (U) Military infrastructure and equipment is old, obsolete and in desperate need of repair or replacement. Paraguay's total 2007 defense budget, USD 72 million, represents approximately three percent of the USD 2.8 billion national budget. Ninety percent of the budget is used to pay salaries, and five percent is used for sustaining conscripts, leaving only five percent for operations, maintenance and training. Budget problems are not expected to go away in the near future due to a lack of Congressional support and lingering memories of the Stroessner dictatorship. Despite these challenges, the military has remained subordinate to civilian authority - especially so under the determinably apolitical leadership of FFAA Commanding General Bernardino Soto. When called, the military has supported law enforcement activities, public health campaigns and provided transportation assistance for farmers to bring their products to market. The military is still seen as the first line of defense in a crisis, and many Paraguayans feel safer when the military is out on the streets. The president called upon the military to support the police in November 2004 in the wake of the Cubas kidnapping and ensuing sense of insecurity; the military remains on the streets today. -------------- Strong Record of Military Cooperation -------------- ¶14. (U) Post's Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC) has provided U.S. Special Operations Forces financial and manpower support to Paraguay second to only that of Colombia in the region, and implemented the Counter Terrorism Fellowship Program contributing significantly toward establishment of host nation CT capability, including designation and creation of a Paraguayan Tier 1 unit. Funding from the Enhanced International Peacekeeping Cooperation (EIPC) program facilitated the training of over 1,081 observers and peacekeepers and the deployment of approximately 101 Paraguayans in support of peacekeeping operations in the Western Hemisphere and Africa. The ODC also launched an outreach program, in conjunction with the State Partnership Program, to encourage the military to build institutional links with legislators, in part through joint visits by members of Congress and Joint Staff and Ministry of Defense Flag officers with their counterparts in the United States. The partnership with the Massachusetts National Guard (MANG) is robust, and MANG,s designation of a full-time TCA coordinator has helped enhance this relationship. We do not have an Article 98 agreement with Paraguay. -------------- The Impact of Your Visit -------------- ¶15. (SBU) When meeting with Paraguayan interlocutors, you should express gratitude for Paraguay's active cooperation in the fight against terrorism and participation in the "3 plus 1" mechanism designed to counter terrorist financing. You should encourage Paraguay to continue its efforts to train and support its contingent of UN peacekeepers, and offer continued U.S. assistance via seminars, conferences, orientation visits, advisory and instructional activities for the Armed Forces of Paraguay. CASON