EARLY POLLING PREDICTS OPPOSITION WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000638 SIPDIS SIPDIS PASS TO WHA/BSC E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PA SUBJECT: EARLY POLLING PREDICTS OPPOSITION WIN Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Joan Shaker; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) A June 24-28 poll indicated that if next April's elections were held today, Paraguay's opposition would end 60-plus years of uninterrupted Colorado Party rule. When asked which party they would support (without naming specific candidates),45.3 percent of voters chose the political opposition and 38.9 percent said they would support the Colorados. Asked who they would vote for if both former Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo and imprisoned coup-plotter Lino Oviedo both run for president, voters chose Lugo by a narrow margin, giving him 32.8 percent of the vote, an unnamed Colorado candidate 30.8 percent, and Oviedo 21.4 percent. Fifty-seven percent of voters identified Lugo as the best candidate to challenge the Colorado Party (as compared to 27.2 percent who supported Oviedo and 11.5 percent who chose PPQ candidate Pedro Fadul). Even if Oviedo does not enter the race, the opposition maintains a narrow margin over the Colorados (41.2 percent to 40.5 percent). If Lugo does not run, however, the balance shifts, with 40.8 percent of voters choosing the Colorado candidate and 39.4 supporting the opposition. With neither Lugo nor Oviedo in the race, the Colorados would turn in a more resounding win, with 44.7 percent of the vote compared to the opposition's 33.6 percent. ¶2. (U) Within the Colorado Party (which is to have its own primary in December),the poll showed current Vice President Castiglioni with 37.5 percent of the vote, eight points ahead of President Duarte's hand-picked successor, former Minister of Education Blanca Ovelar, who polled at 28.9 percent. Castiglioni publicly refuted the poll's results, saying his lead is closer to twenty points. In another recent poll, Castiglioni was projected to win 38.6 percent of the vote, only two points ahead of Ovelar's 26.9 percent. Castiglioni also discounted that poll, stating that the agency that conducted it works for President Duarte. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Many variables, including whether Lugo or Oviedo will be legally capable of running for president, undermine the utility of this poll in forecasting future results. There is extensive speculation about whether Oviedo's candidacy will steal some of the Colorado vote and thus strengthen the opposition, or divide the opposition to the benefit of the Colorados. It is important to note that ABC Color, known for its anti-Duarte leanings and strong support for Oviedo, paid for the poll, also suggesting a possible bias in the poll's results. Also, the poll failed to consider the possibility of an Oviedo-Colorado ticket, which could become attractive to the Colorados at a later date. There is also a large percentage of voters who, at this early stage, remain undecided. And many of those who have decided could be moved by events in the coming months -- say Oviedo's release, Lugo's disqualification by the courts, etc.-- to change their preference. Those caveats aside, this poll provides a snap shot of the current electoral panorama, which is sure to remain dynamic. END COMMENT. CASON