OVIEDO CLEARS ANOTHER HURDLE TO RUNNING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000636 SIPDIS SIPDIS PASS TO WHA/BSC E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2107 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PA SUBJECT: OVIEDO CLEARS ANOTHER HURDLE TO RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT REF: ASUNCION 613 Classified By: Pol/econ Chief Joan Shaker; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) The Supreme Court's criminal chamber ruled July 31 in favor of former General Lino Oviedo's habeas corpus motion for his involvement in the 1999 violence known as "marzo paraguayo." Relying on technical grounds similar to those the Court used July 23 to grant Oviedo's habeas corpus motion in the Argana case (reftel),the court found Oviedo has spent three years in preventative detention, or one year more than the legally permitted maximum. Supreme Court Chief Justice (and criminal chamber member) Alicia Pucheta dissented from the 2-1 opinion. ¶2. (U) Oviedo remains in jail serving time for his military conviction following his attempted coup in 1996, but is maneuvering to overturn that ruling as well. Oviedo's attorneys have asked the military court to review his sentence, arguing that he has served five of his ten year sentence (by counting time he served in Brazil pending extradition) in the hopes of a conditional release. They also argue that the military has no jurisdiction over a retired officer, and that new evidence demostrates that Oviedo was framed. Oviedo's attorneys have failed a claim on his behalf with the OAS in order to exert regional pressure on the issue, but must first exhaust national remedies. It appears that President Duarte, as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, may influence the military court's review or he may take direct action as commander-in-chief to vacate the conviction or pardon Oviedo. ¶3. (C) Comment: Even if Oviedo gains conditional liberty, he may still be barred from running for president absent some kind of presidential pardon or full amnesty. Conventional wisdom suggests that President Duarte may allow Oviedo to be released from jail conditionally (e.g. house arrest),and that he might wait and see how his chosen successor, Blanca Ovelar, fairs in the next few months before absolving Oviedo and opening the door to his candidacy. Then, if Ovelar stumbles, Duarte might consider negotiating an alliance with Oviedo to guarantee a Colorado win in April. End comment. CASON