PARAGUAY A RELUCTANT PARTICIPANT IN BANCO DEL SUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000449 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC, EB/IFD/ODF TREASURY FOR OSIA AND OTA STATE PASS USTR FOR SUE CRONIN USAID FOR DAA/LAC MARK SILVERMAN NSC FOR DAN FISK SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2027 TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD PA PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: PARAGUAY A RELUCTANT PARTICIPANT IN BANCO DEL SUR Classified By: Classified By: CHARGE Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Vice Minister of Economy Jorge von Horoch told econoff that Paraguay agreed to join Banco del Sur at a meeting of Finance Ministers in Asuncion on May 22, along with Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia. Technical discussions will continue in Buenos Aires on June 1. Von Horoch downplayed Paraguay,s interest in the bank, but said the government felt it had little choice but to go along with its neighbors. Von Horoch said Paraguay and Brazil have found much common ground in the talks with both countries sharing the goal of a self-sustaining and professionally run Banco del Sur as insulated as possible from political manipulation by Chavez or other member countries. Capital contributions have not been defined, although von Horoch did not think this would pose an insurmountable obstacle, even though Paraguay will not use its reserves and would only be able contribute $10 or $20 million from regular budget funds. Paraguay,s Central Bank shares von Horoch,s lack of enthusiasm, but President Duarte,s public comments in support of Banco del Sur make clear that Paraguay, unlike Uruguay, will be a founding member. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Econoff discussed Paraguay,s position on the proposed Banco del Sur with Vice Minister of Economy Jorge von Horoch on May 29. Von Horoch is a member of the GOP,s interagency working group on Banco del Sur, which includes representatives from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Central Bank, and Paraguay,s second-tier state-owned development bank (AFD). He will participate in the technical level discussions to take place in Buenos Aires on June 1 where participants will address outstanding issues in advance of the projected signing of what von Horoch characterized as a &founders, document8 at the end of June. The signing could take place in Asuncion at the Mercosur Summit, although von Horoch said that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is pushing for a signing in Venezuela. -------------- Paraguay has Joined ... -------------- ¶3. (C) Paraguay,s Finance Minister, Ernst Bergen, signed the &Asuncion Declaration8 on May 22 approving the creation of Banco del Sur after a meeting of a number of the region,s Finance Ministers in Asuncion. Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Argentina and Bolivia also signed the document. Uruguay,s Minister of Finance participated in the meeting, but did not sign the document. According to Von Horoch, Uruguay did not participate in prior meetings and is maintaining the position (privately and now publicly) that it will not be a founding member of the Bank, citing not enough time to fully study the proposal before the expected end-June signing. Von Horoch admitted that Uruguay is clearly taking a wait-and-see attitude and may join in the future if the Bank turns out to be a serious development bank and not a political tool of Venezuela. -------------- But is &Not Excited8 -------------- ¶4. (C) Von Horoch told econoff that Paraguay is ¬ excited at all8 about the project, but feels that it has no choice but to go along given the support from Brazil and Argentina. He pointed to Paraguay,s landlocked status and resulting reliance on Brazil and Argentina as markets and for access to markets further afield as having a major impact on Paraguay,s foreign policy, including with respect to Banco del Sur. He cited as an example Argentina,s reaction when an outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease caused Chile to temporarily ban Argentine imports. Paraguay was free to continue exporting, but Argentine customs inspectors began causing long delays in processing Paraguayan trucks on their way to Chile. Similar examples from both Argentina and Brazil leave Paraguay painfully aware of its vulnerability to commercial reprisals from its neighbors. As a result, von Horoch said Paraguay must tread lightly with its regional partners. ¶5. (C) Nevertheless, the GOP is wary of Chavez,s intentions and does not want to see the Bank become an instrument for political influence and largess. Paraguay also doesn,t really need a new source of development funds ) domestic debt is relatively low and the established development banks provide more than enough development funding. Paraguay,s problem is domestic, with the opposition-controlled Congress refusing to approve many of the loans offered by the IDB and World Bank. Paraguay would like to see a professional bank operating objectively with self-sustaining lending operations. Von Horoch cited the example of the European Union,s European Investment Bank as a model for a regional bank that supports integration efforts. -------------- Common Ground with Brazil -------------- ¶6. (C) Von Horoch said that while Paraguay and Brazil are not coordinating their views, both have been quick to find common ground at the meetings as they work to limit the possibility that Banco del Sur could become a foreign policy tool for Venezuela. Von Horoch said that Paraguay has achieved the adoption of two important points: one vote per country, and membership open to all South American countries, although he doubts Chile, Peru or Colombia would join. Paraguay and Brazil also supported the current vision of Banco del Sur as a development bank without an IMF-like monetary crisis support role. Von Horoch characterized relations between Venezuela and Brazil in the process as a &silent struggle,8 with Brazil working towards a goal similar to that of Paraguay: namely a Banco del Sur as insulated as possible from political manipulation by Chavez or other member countries. Paraguay wants the bank to be self-sustaining and managed professionally. -------------- Capital Contributions Undefined -------------- ¶7. (C) The amount and modality of each country,s contribution of capital to the new bank has not yet been defined. However, one vote per country would usually imply equal capital contributions. Brazilian Minister of Economy Guido Mantega expressed that sentiment in statements to the press after the May 22 meetings in Asuncion. Von Horoch told econoff that Paraguay is both opposed to using its reserves and unable to do so under current law, which requires reserves to be deposited in AAA-rated, liquid assets. Several proposals have been discussed, although none have been put on paper. One proposal involved summing GDP, exports and reserves and subtracting debt, each term with some pre-determined coefficient, to determine a country,s obligation. Von Horoch said that since Paraguay would have to contribute out of current resources, the maximum contribution would be far less than $50 million. ¶8. (C) Despite these problems, von Horoch didn,t think that capital contributions would pose a significant obstacle. He said that Venezuela and Argentina have both informally suggested that they might deposit up to ten percent of their respective reserves in Banco del Sur ) an amount that could reach $6 billion ) as initial working capital. Those resources could help the bank begin to operate. Options for the founding countries include creating an under-capitalized bank or granting countries like Paraguay generous long-term horizons to fully fund their capital obligations. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Post,s Resident Banking Advisor from Treasury,s Office of Technical Assistance has heard similarly pessimistic views about Banco del Sur from members of the Central Bank,s Board of Directors. They view the bank as largely unnecessary and likely to be inefficient and politically influenced. The Treasury Advisor, who has previous World Bank experience, told Econoff that in his personal view, Banco del Sur will probably end up with a bloated bureaucracy making long-terms loans on projects with very low returns. Von Horoch,s strong characterization that Paraguay has little choice but to go along with Brazil and Argentina is true to a point, but President Duarte has been clear in his public statements that he supports Banco del Sur. FITZPATRICK