PARAGUAY: ELECTORAL CALENDAR TAKING SHAPE, FIGHTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000346

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: ELECTORAL CALENDAR TAKING SHAPE, FIGHTS
HEATING UP

REF: ASUNCION 0177

Classified By: DCM MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK; Reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Paraguay's Presidential/ Congressional
election will likely be held April 20, 2008. Candidates also
must register with the Electoral Tribunal (TSJE) 60 days
prior; separately, political parties must identify their
candidates in the form of primaries some 90 to 135 days
before the election date. The TSJE will not monitor a
primary election among opposition party candidates to
identify a coalition candidate, complicating the opposition's
already strained efforts to unite. The Colorados face their
own problems in producing a consensus candidate but have
proven themselves capable of meeting this challenge in the
past. Meanwhile, two TSJE ministers remain under fire for
the firing of a TSJE employee last December and have been
asked to resign by the opposition National Coalition. END
SUMMARY.

The Dates Working Backwards


2. (U) Paraguay's Constitution dictates a series of dates for
selecting the President, Senators and Representatives to
Congress.

-- Paraguay's next President will assume office on August 15,
2008; newly elected members of Congress and Governors take
their oath of office July 1. According to the Constitution,
general elections must be held 90 to 120 days prior to the
President's inauguration - or between April 17 and May 17,

2008. Electoral Tribunal TSJE President Morales told poloff
the TSJE is looking at scheduling the election for April 20,
2008 but this decision is not yet official.

-- Candidates running for office must register their
candidacy no later than 60 days prior to the election. If
the elections were scheduled for April 20, that would mean
all candidates need to register by February 20.

-- Political parties must hold their primaries some 90 to 135
days prior to election. Again, if general elections are
scheduled for April 20, that would mean primaries between
December 7, 2007 and January 20, 2008. According to Morales,
the TSJE is in the process of negotiating dates for the
primaries of each of the parties. The Colorados have
indicated they would like to hold their primary on December

16. The Liberals are talking about possibly scheduling their
primary for the same day. The remaining parties including
the National Founders Party (PEN),Country in Solidarity
Party (PPS),the Beloved Fatherland Party (PPQ) and the
National Union of Ethical Citizens Party (UNACE) will also
need to schedule their primaries before January 20, 2008.


LUGO AND THE NATIONAL COALITION


3. (U) Fernando Lugo's Tekojoja Movement has apparently
decided not/not to seek to become a political party.
According Tekojoja Movement President Anibal Carrillo, the
movement did not want to create a dilemma for many of its
members who also belong to political parties and would have
been faced with choosing between the two if Tekojoja were to
become a political party. (NOTE: Individuals are allowed to
be members of a political movement and political party
simultaneously but not a member of two different political
parties at the same time. END NOTE) It is not even apparent
Tekojoja would have had time to become a political party as
the process is rather laborious, involving the elaboration of
party statutes and the registration of at least 0.5 percent
of voters in in the 2003 Senate election. As a movement,
Tekojoja will be allowed to identify Lugo as its presidential
nominee and even submit its own list of candidates for the
Congress. However, lacking the status of political party, it
will not be entitled to receive public campaign funds and
will face legal obstacles to participating in a formally
registered opposition alliance.


4. (C) The National Coalition, an alliance of opposition
parties and social/political organizations insists it seeks
to identify a unified candidate. However, its leaders have
yet to decide upon the method for selecting who will be its
Presidential candidate. Lugo has signaled his preference for
some kind of political agreement amongst the leaders of the
leading members of the Coalition. Liberal Party candidate
Carlos Mateo Balmelli, however, insists such a process would
deny political party members their constitutionally
established right to identify their own candidate for the
President (such as himself). He posits as a compromise
holding an election in October wherein voters would vote for
the opposition party/or movement -- Liberal, Beloved
Fatherland Party, UNACE, and Tekojoja -- that it would like
to represent them in the upcoming presidential elections.

The two parties/movements that receive the most votes would
then identify the candidates via primaries before the January
20, 2008 deadline. COMMENT: This approach favors Mateo, as
the Liberal Party is by far the strongest opposition party.
But it will likely be resisted strongly by Lugo, at the very
least, and perhaps others within the National Coalition, who
oppose continued Liberal domination of the opposition to
continued Colorado rule. END COMMENT.


5. (C) Alternatively, each party/movement could hold its
primary first by January 20 and then hold a run-off election
among each party's/movement's primary winners before February

20. Timing and logistics, however, will be a problem. TSJE
President Morales insists the TSJE would not/not monitor such
a run-up election, leaving the assorted political
parties/movements to organize and monitor the election
amongst themselves. Tekojoja President Carrillo conveyed to
PolCouns concern about controlling such an election and
potential Colorado Party efforts to participate and
manipulate results; he signaled Tekojoja would not
participate in such an election.


6. (C) It is not clear how the opposition parties will
resolve this conundrum as none of the four potential
candidates from within the National Coalition (Lugo/Tekojoja,
Pedro Fadul/Beloved Fatherland Party, and Mateo and Federico
Franco/Liberal Party) are prepared to give up their candidacy
at this juncture. The Liberal Party plans to convene its
some 1,340 convention members in the latter half of May with
a view to seeking closure on how to select the opposition
alliance candidate. Meanwhile discussions amongst the groups
that make up the National Coalition is ongoing.

Colorados With Their Own Issues


7. (C) The Colorados are having their own problems forging
a united front.

-- Vice-President Castiglioni declared his candidacy March 23
when it became apparent President Duarte would not back him.
Abandoned by the Colorado Party's Reconciliation Movement,
Castiglioni has bitterly attacked many of the party's
establishment. He is exploring building an alliance with
other members of the party's dissident movement including
Goli Stroessner, the President of the Party's Peace and
Progress Movement -- and grandson of the former dictator --
and Julio Velasquez, former Health Minister and a powerful
political player in the Central Department which possesses
the most voters. Castiglioni is being attacked now as a
rightist seeking to revive the ills of dictatorship and in
bed with the Americans.

-- President Duarte has signaled a preference that his
Education Minister Blanca Ovelar lead the Colorado's
presidential ticket. If she won formally Duarte's backing as
the party's "official" candidate, she would benefit from
appealing to the party's machine stretching across the entire
country, renown for producing electoral victories. However,
her nomination faces serious internal resistance based on the
fact that she does not hail from a Colorado family --
important to many Colorados at the grassroots level; she's a
woman in a machista country; and she is perceived as Duarte's
puppet given owing her political life to his support over the
last decade.

-- Acting Colorado President Alberto Alderete produced a
minor uproar when he announced April 18 he would not accept a
nomination as Vice-President on a ticket with Ovelar. He
could still well decide to back Ovelar's candidacy. However,
if he were to launch his own candidacy or throw his support
to Castiglioni (perhaps as his VP),the race for the Colorado
Party candidate could become even more heated and contentious.


8. (C) The Colorado Party will convene its approximately
800 convention members on April 28. According to the agenda,
they will elect the five members of the Electoral Tribunal
that will oversee the Party's primary and select the members
of the Code of Conduct Tribunal. Colorado Senator Francisco
Oviedo told the DCM April 24 he expected the party's official
wing to forge a compromise with the dissidents that will
accord the former 3 and the latter 2 of their respective
candidates to the Electoral Tribunal. A discussion of the
party's "ideological orientation" has also been placed on the
agenda. Many construe this as reflective of Duarte's desire
to position the party center-left in effort to draw general
election support away from Lugoand kill Castiglioni's chances
of being Party standard-bearer. Senator Oviedo tried to play
down the significance of this agenda item suggesting party
statutes dictated the party should debate its doctrine every
five years; no one is aware, however, that this has ever
occurred. And both Alderete and Castiglioni backers are
extremely anxious about this agenda item.

Who's Going to be in Charge Anyway?


9. (C) President Duarte appears finally to be coming to the
realization that his reelection prospects are all but dead.
However, he is not ready to step out of the political
limelight signaling recent interest in pursuing election as a
Senator. According to Paraguay's Constitution, all former
Presidents acquire the status of "Senator for Life" giving
them the right to participate in Senate debates but not to
introduce or vote on legislation. Nor does Senator for Life
grant them the presidential immunities that current Senators
typically enjoy - a point surely not lost in the mind of
Duarte as he sees all three of his predecessors fighting
criminal charges in the courts. The Constitution does not
speak to whether a former President can become a Senator.
Some argue, though, that acquisition of the status of Senator
for Life would suggest implicitly they cannot become an
active Senator.


10. (U) The question of if/when Duarte would have to resign
to run or take his oath as a Senator on July 1 when his term
as President does not end until August 15 is also under
debate. According to the Constitution, Vice-President
Castiglioni will have to resign office 6 months before the
Presidential election (or by October if the election is set
for April 20, 2008). The Constitution gives Congress the
right to select his successor but they could choose to leave
the office vacant, as was the case in 2003 when the
Vice-President at that time resigned and ran for President.
If the President were to resign as well to either run/assume
office as Senator, the country might potentially need to look
to the President of the Congress to assume the office of
President until August (NOTE: Senate President is selected by
members each June). Some, however, have suggested the
President could/will simply ask for permission to take his
oath as Senator in July but remain in office as President
until his term ends August 15.

TSJE REMAINS UNDER FIRE

SIPDIS


11. (C) The National Coalition sent a letter to TSJE
President Morales April 9 asking him and TSJE Minister Dendia
to resign to save the TSJE from further accusations of fraud
and political bias. Morales provided PolOff with a copy of
the letter which was a verbatim reiteration of criticism
levied by TSJE Minister Ramirez Zambonini who continues to
attack Morales and Dendia for kowtowing to the Colorado Party
by firing the TSJE's IT Director last December. Morales said
that he has no intention of resigning. Meanwhile, an
opposition request to impeach both ministers is pending and
caught up in a series of proposals to impeach several Supreme
Court Ministers.


12. (C) COMMENT: The run-up to next year's elections promises
much intrigue and not a few fireworks. Notwithstanding its
statements to the contrary, the National Coalition will have
a difficult time identifying a consensus candidate. The
candidates from the more traditional parties remain resistant
to ceding Lugo the nomination by virtue of a political
agreement when the constitutionally mandated system of
primaries favors their candidates' prospects. Lugo, on the
other hand, would welcome the support of the National
Coalition, but has signaled a readiness to run on his own -
thus likely splitting the opposition and ensuring a Colorado
roll to victory. Meanwhile the fight among the Colorados is
heated. It would be premature, however, to conclude these
disputes herald the impending demise of the Colorado Party.
Past history suggests its constituent movements are fully
capable of lining up behind the winner of the party's primary
in the broader interest of preserving the party's stakes in
the real fruits of power and continued dominion over the body
politic.
CASON