PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT AND VP ON DIFFERENT PAGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000252

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR JOSE CARDENAS; SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT AND VP ON DIFFERENT PAGES
REGARDING SUCCESSION

REF: ASUNCION 0208

Classified By: DCM MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK; Reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Duarte continues to obstruct Vice
President Castiglioni's bid to be the Colorado Party's
presidential candidate, signaling his preference for his
Minister of Education, Blanca Ovelar as a woman whose
ideology is be closer to his (e.g. Socialist). Undeterred,
Castiglioni is jockeying for support both within party
circles and in the public arena. Meanwhile the opposition
parties are wringing their hands trying to decide how to deal
with the "monster" they created in Monsignor Fernando Lugo.
END SUMMARY.

VP Moving Ahead With or Without President's Support


2. (C) President Duarte continues to shoot across the bow of
VP Castiglioni, signaling his intention to hinder
Castiglioni's ability to become the Colorado Party's
presidential candidate. According to VP advisor Juan
Facetti, Duarte lashed out at the attendees of a Colorado
Party Precinct meeting March 19 for evincing support and
affection for the VP. Duarte apparently also criticized
Castiglioni directly after the VP's visit with the business
community complaining that VP was too close to the business
community and needed to "change his ideology." Castiglioni
reportedly told Duarte that he does not believe in government
control over business and refused to change his ideology.
Meanwhile, Facetti said the VP is campaigning on a grassroots
level, reaching out to the precinct presidents and talking on
local radio stations around the country. He said that
Castiglioni will announce his candidacy after Easter.

JUST CAN'T KEEP A SECRET


3. (C) According to Facetti, Duarte met with Education
Minister Blanca Ovelar and Colorado Party President Jose
Alderete March 21 to inform them that they were his first
choice to be President and Vice-President, if he does not
secure the reelection amendment. Ovelar apparently was so
pleased that she told friends and the information spread,
making Duarte furious. Facetti believes many party leaders
who support Castiglioni are consequently less inclined than
ever to support Duarte's bid for reelection and more
determined than ever to show support for Castiglioni. On
March 23, when Castiglioni attended the memorial service of
former VP Luis Maria Argana assassinated eight years ago, he
was received with enthusiastic applause by the senior
Colorado Party leadership understood by many as a message to
Duarte of whom they prefer serve as the Party's nominee.
Taking Duarte's message about ideology to heart, Castiglioni
tilted left -- at least for appearances' sake -- rejecting
"neoliberalism" and embracing instead the social message of
the Catholic Church (with which Castiglioni has long been
associated).

THE OPPOSITION IS UNSETTLED


4. (C) Facetti told poloff he understands Liberal Party
leader Blas Llano and Beloved Fatherland Party leader Pedro
Fadul are increasingly frustrated with Monsignor Lugo's
candidacy for president. Llano is concerned Lugo represents
a possible threat to the Liberal Party as much of his support
stems from the core of the Liberal Party's base in the
countryside. Fadul and his Party feel betrayed by Lugo. The
Beloved Fatherland Party did much of the leg work to organize
last year's demonstration and Fadul personally selected Lugo
to serve as a keynote speaker. That event served to launch
Lugo's candidacy. One year later, Fadul feels Lugo is only
interested in associating with the opposition parties to the
extent they support his candidacy and is not interested in a
runoff vote to determine the most popular candidate. Lugo's
March 29 rally in Asuncion is expected to be an early
bellwether of the breadth of Lugo's popular support.

COMMENT


5. (C) Duarte has signaled a preference for Blanca Ovelar
presumably because she shares his approach on
policy/ideological questions. Some have also suggested
Duarte believes he can more readily control Ovelar, an
important consideration for Duarte who seeks to remain a
central political figure in Paraguay once he leaves the
Presidency. With or without the President's backing,
Castiglioni is moving ahead to consolidate support both
inside the Colorado fold and at the grassroots level.
Sensitive to the fact that his closeness to the business
community and the U.S. may serve a liability, Castiglioni has
begun to adopt rhetoric that positions him more at the center
of the ideological spectrum. Meanwhile the opposition cannot
decide what to do with Lugo and Lugo in turn is reflecting on
whether he can make a run on his own without the backing of
the opposition parties. Even as some candidates may formally
announce as soon as Easter, the coming months promise many
shifts in rhetoric and much jostling in allegiances as
potential candidates for President weigh their options.
CASON