PARAGUAY: "OVIEDO" OPTION STILL IN SUSPENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000242

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR JOSE CARDENAS; SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KCRM PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: "OVIEDO" OPTION STILL IN SUSPENSE

REF: ASUNCION 144

Classified By: PolCouns James P. Merz; Reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Paraguay's Attorney General has
recommended that the conviction of imprisoned coup plotter
Lino Oviedo be reviewed on the basis of new evidence.
Supreme Court President then announced the entire court would
take its decision on the question of review by mid-April. A
decision to review the case would then likely entail a
request that the AG offer his opinion on the substance of the
new evidence before the Supreme Court would decide to
overturn the conviction of Lino Oviedo. Senator Argana, a
key leader of the Colorado Party's strongest faction, has
threatened to break with President Duarte if he conspired to
secure Oviedo's release in exchange for the Senate votes he
needs from Oviedo's party, UNACE, to advance his own
reelection bid. Oviedo's own supporters maintain no deal is
in the works and have conveyed skepticism his conviction will
be overturned. We have received the same message from a
Supreme Court Judge. While we cannot rule out the President
would resort to this maneuver to secure votes, the internal
problems it would cause him continue to argue strongly
against his freeing Oviedo in exchange for securing his own
bid for 2008 re-election. END SUMMARY.

Attorney General Rules, Supreme Court Huddling


2. (SBU) Attorney General Ruben Candia recommended March 7
that the conviction against retired General Lino Oviedo for
an attempted coup in April 1996 be reviewed on the basis of
new evidence in the form of testimony from some 35 witnesses.
Supreme Court President Alicia Pucheta announced March 14
that she would have all nine Supreme Court judges render a
decision within 30 days on whether to review the case.
(NOTE: Normally, the Supreme Court's three-member Penal
Panel would take this decision; but given the political
profile of this case, Pucheta is looking for some cover. END
NOTE.) Pucheta also said that if the Court were to decide
the case should be reviewed, it would send the case to the
Attorney General for a recommendation from him within 10 days
after which the Court would render its final decision within
20 days. (NOTE AND COMMENT: Legal experts have remarked that
it is unusual for the Supreme Court to refer such a decision
to the Attorney General. Further, they note that legally a
defendant normally needs to present overwhelmingly compelling
evidence of innocence -- e.g., a murder victim reappears
exculpating the convicted killer -- before the Court decides
to review and overturn a case. That not being the case in
this instance has reinforced the political nature of the
present review. END NOTE AND COMMENT)

Denials All Around


3. (C) Sen. Argana, a key leader of the Colorado Party's
dominant "Argana" wing -- Reconciliacion Colorado -- and the
son of former Vice-President Luis Maria Argana assassinated
in a 1999 plot allegedly led by Oviedo, has reportedly
threatened to break with President Duarte if he brokers a
deal with Oviedo's supporters in the Senate to win votes in
exchange for Oviedo's release. Notwithstanding rumors to
the contrary, key players in any prospective deal have denied
their involvement.

-- Duarte has publicly denied any attempt to compromise the
judicial process for political gain.

-- Senator Armando Espinola, Senate Vice-President and a
leader of the opposition Liberal Party, told PolCouns March 5
that the Colorados were offering significant sums of money --
he mentioned $700,000 per Congressman -- for a deal involving
votes in favor of Duarte's reelection bid. He maintained the
opposition would hold firm in resisting any deal to secure
Duarte's reelection but conceded at least one of the more
corrupt Liberal Senators had already signaled he was
sympathetic to Duarte's reelection bid on grounds of
"principle."

-- Senator Enrique Gonzalez Quintana, the President of the
Senate and the leader of Oviedo's political party UNACE, told
PolCouns March 20 his party remained opposed to Duarte's
reelection bid notwithstanding its determination to win
Oviedo's release from jail so he could run for president. He

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said that several leading Colorados have offered to "help"
Oviedo on his cases if he were to return to the Colorado
fold-but that Oviedo has remained steadfast in not only
seeking to clear his name but setting Paraguay off on a new
path divorced from the Colorados. Gonzalez conveyed concern
about efforts by Arganistas to gin up a demonstration against
Oviedo and the possibility that could lead to violence. In
the meantime, Gonzalez said that Oviedo's lawyers have
appealed to the Inter-American Human Rights Court for a
ruling on Oviedo's case.

-- Supreme Court Judge Antonio Fretes (strictly protect) told
PolCouns March 6 that the Supreme Court could well opine in
favor of a review of Oviedo's case but that he was skeptical
about prospects for overturning the Oviedo conviction. He
maintained that he had not been pressured by President Duarte
on this case and that to the contrary Duarte had told him
that he did not intend to broker a deal for reelection using
the Oviedo case. (NOTE AND COMMENT: Fretes has been sick
with dengue and out of commission in recent weeks but is
well-connected enough to know if something were afoot. Fretes
owes his loyalties first to his own -------------- but it is unlikely
he wouldn't signal to us if a deal were in the works. END
NOTE AND COMMENT.)


4. (C) COMMENT. There is much unusual about the substance
and timing of this review of Oviedo's case. That said, the
stir over a possible reversal on the Oviedo case has died
down in recent days. Oviedo himself has declared that
neither the Colorados nor the opposition wants to see him
free for fear he could win in a political faceoff for the
Presidency. Duarte has not yet given up hope he can win the
Senate votes he needs to pursue reelection. It is not
apparent at this juncture however, he is prepared to broker
the controversy and potential backlash a deal on Oviedo's
release could produce. END COMMENT.
CASON