PARAGUAY: "OVIEDO" OPTION STILL IN SUSPENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000242 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR JOSE CARDENAS; SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KCRM PA SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: "OVIEDO" OPTION STILL IN SUSPENSE REF: ASUNCION 144 Classified By: PolCouns James P. Merz; Reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Paraguay's Attorney General has recommended that the conviction of imprisoned coup plotter Lino Oviedo be reviewed on the basis of new evidence. Supreme Court President then announced the entire court would take its decision on the question of review by mid-April. A decision to review the case would then likely entail a request that the AG offer his opinion on the substance of the new evidence before the Supreme Court would decide to overturn the conviction of Lino Oviedo. Senator Argana, a key leader of the Colorado Party's strongest faction, has threatened to break with President Duarte if he conspired to secure Oviedo's release in exchange for the Senate votes he needs from Oviedo's party, UNACE, to advance his own reelection bid. Oviedo's own supporters maintain no deal is in the works and have conveyed skepticism his conviction will be overturned. We have received the same message from a Supreme Court Judge. While we cannot rule out the President would resort to this maneuver to secure votes, the internal problems it would cause him continue to argue strongly against his freeing Oviedo in exchange for securing his own bid for 2008 re-election. END SUMMARY. Attorney General Rules, Supreme Court Huddling ¶2. (SBU) Attorney General Ruben Candia recommended March 7 that the conviction against retired General Lino Oviedo for an attempted coup in April 1996 be reviewed on the basis of new evidence in the form of testimony from some 35 witnesses. Supreme Court President Alicia Pucheta announced March 14 that she would have all nine Supreme Court judges render a decision within 30 days on whether to review the case. (NOTE: Normally, the Supreme Court's three-member Penal Panel would take this decision; but given the political profile of this case, Pucheta is looking for some cover. END NOTE.) Pucheta also said that if the Court were to decide the case should be reviewed, it would send the case to the Attorney General for a recommendation from him within 10 days after which the Court would render its final decision within 20 days. (NOTE AND COMMENT: Legal experts have remarked that it is unusual for the Supreme Court to refer such a decision to the Attorney General. Further, they note that legally a defendant normally needs to present overwhelmingly compelling evidence of innocence -- e.g., a murder victim reappears exculpating the convicted killer -- before the Court decides to review and overturn a case. That not being the case in this instance has reinforced the political nature of the present review. END NOTE AND COMMENT) Denials All Around ¶3. (C) Sen. Argana, a key leader of the Colorado Party's dominant "Argana" wing -- Reconciliacion Colorado -- and the son of former Vice-President Luis Maria Argana assassinated in a 1999 plot allegedly led by Oviedo, has reportedly threatened to break with President Duarte if he brokers a deal with Oviedo's supporters in the Senate to win votes in exchange for Oviedo's release. Notwithstanding rumors to the contrary, key players in any prospective deal have denied their involvement. -- Duarte has publicly denied any attempt to compromise the judicial process for political gain. -- Senator Armando Espinola, Senate Vice-President and a leader of the opposition Liberal Party, told PolCouns March 5 that the Colorados were offering significant sums of money -- he mentioned $700,000 per Congressman -- for a deal involving votes in favor of Duarte's reelection bid. He maintained the opposition would hold firm in resisting any deal to secure Duarte's reelection but conceded at least one of the more corrupt Liberal Senators had already signaled he was sympathetic to Duarte's reelection bid on grounds of "principle." -- Senator Enrique Gonzalez Quintana, the President of the Senate and the leader of Oviedo's political party UNACE, told PolCouns March 20 his party remained opposed to Duarte's reelection bid notwithstanding its determination to win Oviedo's release from jail so he could run for president. He ASUNCION 00000242 002 OF 002 said that several leading Colorados have offered to "help" Oviedo on his cases if he were to return to the Colorado fold-but that Oviedo has remained steadfast in not only seeking to clear his name but setting Paraguay off on a new path divorced from the Colorados. Gonzalez conveyed concern about efforts by Arganistas to gin up a demonstration against Oviedo and the possibility that could lead to violence. In the meantime, Gonzalez said that Oviedo's lawyers have appealed to the Inter-American Human Rights Court for a ruling on Oviedo's case. -- Supreme Court Judge Antonio Fretes (strictly protect) told PolCouns March 6 that the Supreme Court could well opine in favor of a review of Oviedo's case but that he was skeptical about prospects for overturning the Oviedo conviction. He maintained that he had not been pressured by President Duarte on this case and that to the contrary Duarte had told him that he did not intend to broker a deal for reelection using the Oviedo case. (NOTE AND COMMENT: Fretes has been sick with dengue and out of commission in recent weeks but is well-connected enough to know if something were afoot. Fretes owes his loyalties first to his own -------------- but it is unlikely he wouldn't signal to us if a deal were in the works. END NOTE AND COMMENT.) ¶4. (C) COMMENT. There is much unusual about the substance and timing of this review of Oviedo's case. That said, the stir over a possible reversal on the Oviedo case has died down in recent days. Oviedo himself has declared that neither the Colorados nor the opposition wants to see him free for fear he could win in a political faceoff for the Presidency. Duarte has not yet given up hope he can win the Senate votes he needs to pursue reelection. It is not apparent at this juncture however, he is prepared to broker the controversy and potential backlash a deal on Oviedo's release could produce. END COMMENT. CASON