PARAGUAY: LUGO STILL IN CLERGY; JOINS OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000208

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: LUGO STILL IN CLERGY; JOINS OPPOSITION
PACT

REF: ASUNCION 0161 AND PRECEDING

Classified By: DCM MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK; Reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Bishop Fernando Lugo continues to poll high
in the run up to the May 2008 general elections, despite his
apparent Constitutional ineligibility. The Apostolic Nuncio
in Paraguay maintains that Lugo is a Bishop and forbidden by
Canon rules to seek public office. During a March 3 campaign
sweep, Lugo predicted he could win the presidency without
support of opposition political parties. But he then signed
an agreement among opposition parties to field a unified
candidate list and platform. Lugo then flipped again
signaling he may not honor that agreement and might run for
the presidency under his own Tekojoja Movement. Some
opposition leaders are beginning to express doubts about the
Monsignor's candidacy on Constitutional - if not political -
grounds and hope the Colorado Party challenges the
eligibility of Lugo. END SUMMARY.

POLLING HIGH; NOT BRINGING OUT THE MASSES
--------------


2. (U) Despite the Constitutional bar on religious ministers
serving in political office, Bishop Fernando Lugo remains the
clear front runner for the May 2008 Presidential elections,
according to press polls (and, since this is Paraguay, the
number 2 and 3 presidential contenders also appear to be
barred from running: President Nicanor Duarte Frutos and
jailed coup-plotter General Lino Oviedo). Lugo has
crisscrossed the country feverishly campaigning and
criticizing the current administration. However, in recent
campaign stops he has failed to bring out crowds larger than
60 to 100 persons. While this may be expected in small towns
and villages, some have begun to speculate if Lugo has enough
support to win the election.

HE IS A CLERGYMAN
--------------


3. (C) Father Santiago Dewitt Guzman, from the Apostolic
Nuncio in Paraguay, told PolOff March 14 that Lugo is
"suspended" but remains a member of the clergy pursuant to
the February 1 Holy See letter (signed by Cardinal Giovanni
Battista Re, Prefect of the Congregation of Bishops). DeWitt
expects the Holy See will reiterate its stance to Lugo but
will not grant him his wish of Laicization (the Vatican never
considers this an option for Bishops, according to DeWitt).


4. (C) DeWitt believes Lugo is not a truthful person and has
been "fooling" the Church and the people for many years. He
says Lugo will do or say anything for his personal goals.
DeWitt notes that the Vatican will not engage in the civil
issues related to Lugo's bid for office because they think
that is the Paraguayan government's business.

THE PACT
--------------


5. (U) Lugo finally signed the opposition's National
Coalition Pact March 5, a month after its February 5
creation, but hinted that he may not honor the agreement and
seek to run for the presidency under his Tekojoja Movement.
(NOTE: The National Coalition is an agreement between the
opposition parties and "citizen Lugo" to field a unified
candidate list and platform for the general election. The
Tekojoja Movement has refused to sign the National Coalition
Pact. END NOTE).


6. (U) Some opposition leaders have privately shared doubts
about the eligibility of Lugo and are pressing on with
intra-party elections, in case the Lugo candidacy fails to
come to fruition. Senator Arsenio Ocampos Velazquez, of the
Beloved Fatherland Party (PPQ),noted that PPQ leader Pedro
Fadul is doubtful Lugo can clear the Constitutional hurdle.
But, few opposition leaders are prepared to challenge what
they still see as the Lugo juggernaut and would prefer the
Colorado Party do the "dirty work" and challenge the Lugo
candidacy.

THE ADMINISTRATION VIEW
--------------


7. (C) For its part, the Colorado-lead government remains
focused and concerned about Lugo. FM Ruben Ramirez Lezcano
told Ambassador March 14 that the government "knows for a
fact" that Venezuela is funneling funds to Lugo for his
campaign.


8. (C) COMMENT: Lugo continues to rake in the headlines but

ASUNCION 00000208 002 OF 002


his early out of the gate candidacy may be loosing steam. He
is no longer drawing huge crowds and his constant
flip-flopping is beginning to irritate some in the opposition
ranks. The Tekojoja Movement and other groups are planning
the annual March 29 protest, which last year garnered more
than 40,000 persons (and launched Lugo onto the national
scene last year). If Lugo is not able to match or exceed
those numbers, he could be in trouble. The opposition
parties were a big part of that event and their participation
is key. The National Coalition remains unified - for now -
but will need to identify a mechanism to choose a unified
candidate list. Lugo is expecting to be "ascended" to the
top of the list via an agreement among political party
leaders. Many within the parties - especially those still
backing other opposition leaders - are seeking party
elections to determine the Coalition list. The question of
his Constitutional eligibility remains unresolved by the
government but the Catholic Church is very clear that Lugo is
a clergyman and maintains their view that he is forbidden to
seek public office. END COMMENT.
CASON