LUGO RENOUNCES HIS PRIESTHOOD ... AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000160

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PA
SUBJECT: LUGO RENOUNCES HIS PRIESTHOOD ... AGAIN

REF: A. ASUNCION 0144


B. 2006 ASUNCION 1280

Classified By: POL Chief James P. Merz; Reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Bishop Fernando Lugo continues to lead
presidential polls, prompting some Colorado Party leaders to
argue he is ineligible based on the Constitutional bar
against "ministers from any religion" being President. To
overcome that potential hurdle, Lugo submitted his second
letter in three months to the Vatican renouncing his
priesthood. The Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSJE) has
signaled to us a readiness to accept Lugo's candidacy; the
Colorado-controlled Supreme Court, however, would have the
final say. While some Paraguayan bishops have voiced support
for Lugo, the Paraguayan Catholic Church as an institution
has avoided to date weighing in on how Lugo's renunciation of
his priesthood squares with Church doctrine. End Summary.

To Be or not to be a Priest
--------------


2. (U) Monsignor Fernando Lugo renounced his priesthood in a
letter to the Vatican on February 27 -- the second time in
three months -- to overcome the Paraguayan constitution's bar
against "ministers from any religion" becoming President of
Paraguay. Anticipating the claim that under Church doctrine
once ordained a bishop he cannot renounce his priestly title,
he asserts that his renunciation is "unwaivable." He also
invokes Paraguay's Constitution and Article 12 (on Freedom of
Conscience and Religious Freedom) of the Inter-American
Convention on Human Rights maintaining the act of
"renunciation is a legal and voluntary juridical act that
does not need to be accepted to be considered valid."


3. (C) Acting Colorado Party President Jose Alberto
Alderete meanwhile has threatened legal action against
electoral officials who would find Lugo eligible to run for
the Presidency. Lugo is not yet officially inscribed as a
candidate (it is not legally required for another 12 months
or so) and thus at this juncture his candidacy is not subject
to any legal challenge. Disqualifying Lugo from a bid for
the Presidency will prove controversial and could prompt
civil unrest. As such, it will be a measure of last resort.
Nevertheless, Alderete and other Colorado leaders clearly
want to lay the groundwork for a legal challenge should they
determine Lugo poses a legitimate threat to their 60 year
hold on power in Paraguay.


4. (C) Liliana Benitez, the Director of the TSJE's Public
Affairs Office, told PolOff in confidence February 28 that
Tribunal members are earnestly reviewing the legal
implications of Lugo's candidacy. According to Benitez, TSJE
Minister Rafael Dendia recently stated that if Lugo inscribes
himself as candidate, the TSJE would be predisposed to
approve his request assuming his legal team presents a strong
legal case. Dendia reportedly indicated that President
Nicanor Duarte Frutos wants the TSJE to approve Lugo's
request. (COMMENT: Duarte may be seeking to help the TSJE
as an institution recover much of the credibility it has lost
in recent months with scandals suggesting it answers to
powerful Colorado Party leaders. Colorado Party leaders could
then look to the Colorado packed Supreme Court to overrule
the TSJE decision and find Lugo ineligible under the
Constitution. END COMMENT.

Paraguayan Church Conflicted on Lugo
--------------


5. (C) Throughout much of the back and forth on a possible
Lugo candidacy, the Catholic Church in Paraguay has sought to
assume a low profile. Upon Lugo's initial announcement of
his candidacy, the Paraguayan Episcopal Conference (of
Bishops),released a statement supporting the decision of the
Vatican to reject the renunciation of his priesthood. Bishop
Rogelio Livieres reaffirmed that position February 28 when he
asserted that Lugo's second letter does not change anything
and that the Church continues to consider him a bishop for
life. He remarked that the Holy See's position is
independent of the Constitution and deferred to the Supreme
Court as the authority to speak to Lugo's eligibility under
the Constitution. Other bishops, however, have begun to
speak out in support of Lugo. Monsignor Zacarais Ortiz, the
Bishop of Concepcion Department, stated February 27 to the
press that he has a high regard for Lugo, as do many of his
colleagues, and further remarked that he believes Lugo is
qualified to be a candidate for President. As an
institution, however, the Episcopal Conference has not
directly addressed the legitimacy of Lugo's bid under
Paraguay's Constitution, taking special pains not to enter
into the debate over Lugo.


ASUNCION 00000160 002 OF 002


COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) By renouncing his priesthood for a second time, Lugo
is clearly trying to get out in front of any Colorado attempt
to challenge his bid on Constitutional grounds. The
Colorados will want to avoid pursuing this defensive measure
but may feel no alternative given their rising concern about
their staying power in face of Lugo's popularity. The Church
will be hard-pressed to remain silent on this potential
controversy. Lugo speaks to many of the concerns they have
about Paraguay's political culture. At the same, the Vatican
has called on Lugo to stand down and Church doctrine argues
he remains a bishop. At this juncture, however, few are
showing their hand as to what move they will make as they
continue to weigh options based on the evolving Lugo
phenomenom. End Comment.
CASON