PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT LOOKING AT "OVIEDO" OPTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 000144 SIPDIS INFO MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE USCINCSO MIAMI FL//SCJ3/SCJ33/SCJ34/SOCSO LNO// CIA WASHDC DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC USSOCOM WO WASHDC SIPDIS NSC FOR JOSE CARDENAS; SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KCRM PA SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRESIDENT LOOKING AT "OVIEDO" OPTION REF: ASUNCION 01279 Classified By: PolCouns James P. Merz; Reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Paraguay's Presidential election in May 2008 dominates the political scene. Leftist priest Fernando Lugo is outpolling both of his closest competitors ) imprisoned coup-plotter Lino Oviedo and current President Duarte ) by a two to one margin. Ironically, all three face Constitutional hurdles. President Duarte has not given up his own reelection aspirations. Rumors have surfaced that he is even considering releasing Oviedo to acquire the congressional votes he needs for a constitutional amendment allowing him to pursue reelection and for Oviedo to toss his hat into the ring. To release Oviedo, however, Duarte would have to overcome fierce opposition within his own party. Oviedo's release with his conviction expunged would provoke a firestorm of controversy and set back Paraguay's fledgling attempts to build strong democratic institutions and respect for rule of law. End Summary. Lugo Polling High, Drawing Concern of Colorados ¶2. (U) A 2/20 poll commissioned by left of center daily "Ultima Hora" showed former bishop Fernando Lugo drawing 39.4 percent of the vote compared to 16.4 percent for former General Lino Oviedo and 14.9 percent for current President Nicanor Duarte. Presently, Lugo is making the rounds of Paraguay's interior drawing good press in delivering relatively moderate speeches condemning corruption and poverty. The DCM represented the Ambassador on February 20 at the latest in a series of dinners hosted by Liberal Senator Juan Manuel Marcos for Lugo to meet several members of the diplomatic community. ¶3. (U) The opposition parties have not yet agreed formally to throw their support behind Lugo. Liberal Party Senator Carlos Mateo Balmelli(running his own campaign for President) has been insistent the Constitution leaves the opposition no choice but to select its candidate in an open election only after each Party identifies its nominee in a primary 90 to 135 days before the May 2008 Presidential election. Lugo, however, does not want to wait until then and has signaled his preference the opposition forge an agreement at the political level regarding who it will support. A demonstration scheduled for March 29, calling for the removal of Colorado judges on the Supreme Court and the Colorado President of the Electoral Tribunal (TSJE),should serve another gauge of Lugo's support. (NOTE: Lugo led last March's successful rally drawing a surprising 40,000 protesters and should headline this year's demonstration as well. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) Colorado Party leaders see in Lugo a genuine threat to their sixty year hold on power. Party President Jose Alberto Alderete, himself a potential aspirant for the Presidency, has warned TSJE representatives will face legal repercussions if they do not find Lugo ineligible to run for President noting the Constitution's bar against "ministers" running for the Presidency. (NOTE: Lugo renounced his priesthood on December 21. However, some Church officials have suggested that Lugo cannot renounce his status as bishop, maintaining that according to Catholic doctrine once ordained a bishop by the Church one is a bishop for life. END NOTE.) Alderete and other Lugo detractors maintain Lugo remains a minister and as such ineligible. Should the Colorado leadership determine Lugo could defeat them at the polls, it is quite conceivable they would appeal first to the TSJE and ultimately the Supreme Court -- both of which SIPDIS presently answer to the Colorados -- for a decision to find Lugo ineligible to run. Duarte: Considering the "Nuclear" Option ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, President Duarte remains singularly focused on his own reelection ambitions. He needs a majority of votes in both Houses of Congress to pass an amendment to the Constitution to overcome the present bar against reelection. The Colorados are in the minority in Senate (they control only 17 of 45 votes). Opposition parties have been steadfast in denying Duarte the votes he needs for reelection. Under increasing pressure from Colorado politicians who believe further delay is damaging their chance to identify a successor, Duarte recently announced March as the deadline for reaching closure on his reelection bid. Of course, he had announced prior he wanted to reach a decision by February. ¶6. (C) The Supreme Court's decision February 20 to review the 1998 conviction against former General Lino Oviedo for plotting a coup has given rise to rumors of a possible deal between Duarte and Oviedo's supporters that would condition Oviedo's release in exchange for the votes Duarte needs to pursue reelection. VP advisor Juan Facetti told PolCouns 2/21 a deal is in the works for the Supreme Court to expunge Oviedo's conviction based on a recommendation from the Attorney General. Attorney General Candia expects to review the testimony of some 35 witnesses that we understand will include a retired general claiming he was pressured to testify falsely against Oviedo. Candia signaled to PolCouns February 22 that he did not consider releasing Oviedo beyond the pale ) a remarkable assertion considering the political stakes,(and the legal issues given his responsibilities as Attorney General). The decision would then fall to the Supreme Court's 3-judge Penal Panel to rule on the Attorney General's recommendation. In exchange for a favorable ruling, Oviedo's party UNACE with its 5 senators complemented by several additional Oviedo supporters within the opposition Liberal Party would vote in support of the amendment the President needs to pursue reelection. ¶7. (C) This is hardly a done deal. According to Facetti, the President is waiting on results from his own poll due in early March on how he would fare in a race with Oviedo and leftist aspirant Fernando Lugo before deciding whether to green light Oviedo's release. Ardent Colorado opponents of Oviedo, including Sen. Nelson Argana, the son of former Vice-President Luis Maria Argana assassinated in plot allegedly led by Oviedo, have condemned any possible deal on Oviedo. Duarte himself hails from the "Argana" wing of the Colorado Party and publicly has been insistent he would never a countenance a deal on Oviedo's release. Oviedo's supporters have told us that Colorados have approached them in the past about releasing Oviedo on house arrest. Oviedo, however, has reportedly always insisted on his conviction being expunged as otherwise he is constitutionally barred from running for President. According to Facetti, Vice-President Castiglioni, anxious to announce formally his own candidacy for the Presidency, is distraught over this plan and contemplating resignation should it come to pass. ¶8. (C) COMMENT. Lugo remains in the drivers' seat in the current race for President unless or until the Colorados conspire to take away his license by asking the Courts to rule against him. The opposition parties have yet to coalesce formally behind Lugo but they are desperate to kick out the Colorados and increasingly see in Lugo their best hope. A deal to release Oviedo in exchange for the votes Duarte needs to pursue reelection would convert Paraguay's political scene into a complete circus with the potential for some serious fireworks. Oviedo was convicted almost 10 years ago of plotting a coup; charges against him for involvement in the assassination of Argana in 1999 are still pending. While he enjoys wide support amongst Paraguay's rural community, he also has virulent opponents within political and military circles, not to mention civil society, and his release could provoke violence and unrest. Oviedo is a populist by nature with demagogic tendencies and a long track record for involvement in criminal activity including drug trafficking. His release in connection with a pact to allow Duarte to pursue reelection would represent a severe blow to Paraguay's attempt to build democratic institutions and respect for rule of law. End Comment. FITZPATRICK