COLORADO PRIMARY UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001048

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV PA
SUBJECT: COLORADO PRIMARY UPDATE


Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Castiglioni campaign insiders report that
electoral certificates for all 5,533 Colorado Party polling
stations show Castiglioni has a razor-thin 3,800 vote lead
over "oficialista" former Education Minister Blanca Ovelar
for the Colorado Party presidential nomination. The formal
vote-counting process will begin December 20; final results
are not expected for two weeks. While the presidential race
remains tight, Ovelar's Senate list, led by President Duarte,
appears to have secured a first place finish. Admitting he
was overly "passionate" in declaring Ovelar's victory
December 16, President Duarte moderated his discourse the
next day. This race remains too close to call. While
Castiglioni's team believes it has won, the ultimate outcome
will depend on Ovelar's ability to disqualify voting centers
that supported Castiglioni. END SUMMARY.

--------------
A CASTIGLIONI WIN?
--------------


2. (C) Castiglioni campaign insiders told PolCouns and DCM
separately late December 17 that the former Vice President's
team has copies of electoral certificates for all 5,533
Colorado Party polling stations, and that the totals show
Castiglioni has a razor-thin 3,800 vote lead over former
Education Minister Blanca Ovelar. Out of an abundance of
caution, Castiglioni's team will not share their calculations
with the media, but will wait for the Colorado Party's
electoral tribunal to officially announce the results. The
challenge now, they said, is to fend off Ovelar's attempts to
disqualify voting centers where Castiglioni won by wide
margins based on fraud allegations. The Colorado Party
electoral tribunal's quick count, based on 99 percent of
polling stations, shows Ovelar with 44.98 percent of the vote
and Castiglioni with 44.48 percent.

--------------
JANUARY RESULTS
--------------


3. (SBU) The formal vote-counting process will begin December
20; final results are not expected for two weeks (deadline is
January 10). At least one (major) polling station in Asuncion
may repeat the primary because voting was suspended due to
violence, including the burning of ballots. December 17 and
18 press coverage carried multiple stories reporting double
voting (due to purchased carnets) and claims of electoral
fraud.

--------------
SENATE/GUBERNATORIAL RACES
--------------


4. (U) While the presidential race remains tight, Ovelar's
Senate list, led by President Duarte, appears to have secured
a first place finish. According to quick counts, Ovelar's
list won 41.6 percent of the vote, as compared to
Castiglioni's Senate list with 29.8 percent. (NOTE: President
Duarte won 31,000 more votes in his Senate race than Ovelar
won in the presidential contest. END NOTE). In third place,
Alderete's list won 8.8 percent of the vote. Quick counts
also show that Ovelar's gubernatorial candidates won 15 of 17
slots. Ovelar candidate and former Minister of Industry and
Commerce Jose Maria Ibanez likely won the nomination for
governor of the Central Department (Asuncion). Castiglioni
candidate Nelson Aguinagalde appears to have won the contest
in Alto Parana (Ciudad del Este),which showed a tendency to
be heavily anti-Ovelar.

--------------
DUARTE'S DISCOURSE
--------------


5. (U) President Duarte moderated his discourse on the
afternoon and evening of December 17. Duarte admitted being
overly "passionate" on December 16, and said he will stand by
results, even if Ovelar loses by one vote. The OAS electoral
mission continues to urge all sides to wait for final results.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) This race remains too close to call. While
Castiglioni's team privately believes it has won, the
ultimate outcome will depend on Ovelar's ability to
disqualify voting centers that supported Castiglioni. In our
view, two factors in this race speaks volumes: 1) Despite the
longevity and sheer power of the Colorado machine, 56 percent
of voters did not vote for Ovelar. Even given the relatively
low voter turnout (which disproportionately hurt Castiglioni),
Castiglioni is giving the Colorado machine a run for its money;
and 2) In a system with no run-offs, the
opponents to ruling powers need to remain united or they risk
failure. Had Alderete and Castiglioni been able to
capitalize on their common opposition to Duarte (and Ovelar),
they would be moving ahead now together toward national
elections instead of recounting ballots for the next several
weeks. END COMMENT.

Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion

CASON