COLORADO PRIMARY: OVELAR EDGING OUT CASTIGLIONI?

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/FO CMCMULLEN, WHA/BSC MDRUCKER, KREAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PA
SUBJECT: COLORADO PRIMARY: OVELAR EDGING OUT CASTIGLIONI?


Classified By: Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Colorado Party, with over 1.6 million
registered voters and over 60 years in power in Paraguay,
held its primary December 16. President Duarte's handpicked
successor, Blanca Ovelar, has a slim lead of approximately
8,000 votes over former Vice President Luis Castiglioni, with
92 percent of votes counted. Despite several allegations of
electoral interference and fraud, press reports described the
primary as "normal," festive and peaceful. Media coverage
December 16 focused on President Duarte, who first declared
victory around 6:30 p.m. based on exit polls. While it is
still too soon to declare a winner, the early signs point to
Ovelar. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The Colorado Party, with over 1.6 million registered
voters and over 60 years in power in Paraguay, held its
primary December 16. Twenty-nine Colorado Party factions
presented candidates for president/vice president, the Senate
and Lower House, governors, departmental councils, and
Mercosur representatives. The party's 5,533 voting centers
were scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m., although
many centers deviated from that schedule. Participation was
estimated at 44 percent.


3. (U) President Duarte's handpicked successor, Blanca
Ovelar, has a slim lead of approximately 8,000 votes over
former Vice President Luis Castiglioni, with 92 percent of
votes counted. Ovelar is currently reported as having
received 45.26 percent of the vote; Castiglioni has received
44.18 percent. Alderete, the third place Colorado candidate,
received 5 percent of the vote. Two percent of total votes
were blank; 1.86 percent were nullified.


4. (SBU) Despite several allegations of electoral
interference and fraud, press reports described the primary
as "normal," festive and peaceful. Organization of American
States (OAS) electoral mission chief Pablo Gutierrez told
PolCouns privately late December 16 that the mission observed
minor delays and heard isolated reports of confrontations
between factions at voting centers, as well as reports of the
purchase of identification cards for voting fraud. He said,
however, that few formal complaints had been filed.
Publicly, the OAS made clear that its small delegation's
purpose was to observe, not legitimize, results. The most
serious voting irregularity was reported around 11 p.m.
December 16, when Castiglioni publicly called upon security
forces to take action to free voting center officials "under
siege" by Ovelar supporters, who allegedly prohibited them
from leaving the center to deliver elections results.


5. (SBU) Media coverage December 16 focused on President
Duarte, who first declared victory around 6:30 p.m. based on
exit polls. Duarte's discourse was emotionally charged and
aggressive; he called Castiglioni "ridiculous" for not
conceding his defeat at an early hour, when polling data
showed the race would be a close one. Duarte described the
victory as "pure Nicanorism" and as the beginning of "his
era, his time." Ovelar, clearly in Duarte's shadow, was
slightly more measured in her comments, although she repeated
that her victory was an "irreversible tendency."
Castiglioni, in stark contrast, calmly implored voters to
wait for official results.


6. (C) COMMENT: Paraguayan elections are typically decided in
the Colorado primary, making it the electoral event to watch.
This was no exception. While it is still too soon to declare
a winner, the early signs point to Ovelar. Still, the
election could go either way. And given the Colorado Party's
use of paper ballots, the final count could be delayed for
several days. While the current results are not surprising
given the strength of the Colorado "machine" supporting
Ovelar, President Duarte's over-the-top behavior raised many
political eyebrows here. If the Colorado Party is to come
together in coming weeks to support a single candidate, it
will be despite Duarte and his antics. END COMMENT.


7. (SBU) Post's current press guidance is to refrain from
making any comment or rendering any opinion.

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