COLORADO PRIMARY: OVELAR EDGING OUT CASTIGLIONI?

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001043 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/FO CMCMULLEN, WHA/BSC MDRUCKER, KREAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL PA SUBJECT: COLORADO PRIMARY: OVELAR EDGING OUT CASTIGLIONI? Classified By: Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Colorado Party, with over 1.6 million registered voters and over 60 years in power in Paraguay, held its primary December 16. President Duarte's handpicked successor, Blanca Ovelar, has a slim lead of approximately 8,000 votes over former Vice President Luis Castiglioni, with 92 percent of votes counted. Despite several allegations of electoral interference and fraud, press reports described the primary as "normal," festive and peaceful. Media coverage December 16 focused on President Duarte, who first declared victory around 6:30 p.m. based on exit polls. While it is still too soon to declare a winner, the early signs point to Ovelar. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) The Colorado Party, with over 1.6 million registered voters and over 60 years in power in Paraguay, held its primary December 16. Twenty-nine Colorado Party factions presented candidates for president/vice president, the Senate and Lower House, governors, departmental councils, and Mercosur representatives. The party's 5,533 voting centers were scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m., although many centers deviated from that schedule. Participation was estimated at 44 percent. ¶3. (U) President Duarte's handpicked successor, Blanca Ovelar, has a slim lead of approximately 8,000 votes over former Vice President Luis Castiglioni, with 92 percent of votes counted. Ovelar is currently reported as having received 45.26 percent of the vote; Castiglioni has received 44.18 percent. Alderete, the third place Colorado candidate, received 5 percent of the vote. Two percent of total votes were blank; 1.86 percent were nullified. ¶4. (SBU) Despite several allegations of electoral interference and fraud, press reports described the primary as "normal," festive and peaceful. Organization of American States (OAS) electoral mission chief Pablo Gutierrez told PolCouns privately late December 16 that the mission observed minor delays and heard isolated reports of confrontations between factions at voting centers, as well as reports of the purchase of identification cards for voting fraud. He said, however, that few formal complaints had been filed. Publicly, the OAS made clear that its small delegation's purpose was to observe, not legitimize, results. The most serious voting irregularity was reported around 11 p.m. December 16, when Castiglioni publicly called upon security forces to take action to free voting center officials "under siege" by Ovelar supporters, who allegedly prohibited them from leaving the center to deliver elections results. ¶5. (SBU) Media coverage December 16 focused on President Duarte, who first declared victory around 6:30 p.m. based on exit polls. Duarte's discourse was emotionally charged and aggressive; he called Castiglioni "ridiculous" for not conceding his defeat at an early hour, when polling data showed the race would be a close one. Duarte described the victory as "pure Nicanorism" and as the beginning of "his era, his time." Ovelar, clearly in Duarte's shadow, was slightly more measured in her comments, although she repeated that her victory was an "irreversible tendency." Castiglioni, in stark contrast, calmly implored voters to wait for official results. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Paraguayan elections are typically decided in the Colorado primary, making it the electoral event to watch. This was no exception. While it is still too soon to declare a winner, the early signs point to Ovelar. Still, the election could go either way. And given the Colorado Party's use of paper ballots, the final count could be delayed for several days. While the current results are not surprising given the strength of the Colorado "machine" supporting Ovelar, President Duarte's over-the-top behavior raised many political eyebrows here. If the Colorado Party is to come together in coming weeks to support a single candidate, it will be despite Duarte and his antics. END COMMENT. ¶7. (SBU) Post's current press guidance is to refrain from making any comment or rendering any opinion. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion CASON