LIBERAL PARTY PRIMARY TOO CLOSE TO CALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001014

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PA
SUBJECT: LIBERAL PARTY PRIMARY TOO CLOSE TO CALL


Classified By: Charge d'Affairs, a.i. Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Paraguay's Christian Democrat Party (PDC) and the
Liberal Party (PLRA) held separate primaries December 9. The
former confirmed ex-Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo's
presidential candidacy (on behalf of the Patriotic Alliance
for Change coalition) and the latter attempted to name his
running mate. With 93 percent of official results reported
for the Liberal Party primary, former Central Department
Governor Federico Franco, with 50.17 percent of the vote, has
a narrow lead over Senator Carlos Mateo Balmelli, who
currently registers with 49.67 percent of the vote.
Thirty-three percent of registered Liberals turned out to
vote.


2. (SBU) The Liberal Party primary is already controversial.
Franco has questioned preliminary results based on a December
4 First Analysis and Studies poll that showed him as having a
14 percent lead over Balmelli, as well as exit polls that
predicted an 11-point lead. Final results may not be
available for approximately two weeks, as two voting centers
in Asuncion suspended operations during voting hours. Those
centers will likely redo the primary on December 23.


3. (C) COMMENT: The Liberal Party's delay in releasing
official results may be attributed to a legitimate
vote-by-vote re-count. Alternatively, Liberal Party
officials could be utilizing the delay to manipulate results,
as has occurred with other parties (mostly the Colorados) in
the past. At the very least, given the 14-point discrepancy
between the latest poll and preliminary primary results, it
appears we can confirm the widespread belief that Paraguayan
polling is weak. END COMMENT.

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FITZPATRICK