LIBERAL PARTY PRIMARY TOO CLOSE TO CALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001014 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL PA SUBJECT: LIBERAL PARTY PRIMARY TOO CLOSE TO CALL Classified By: Charge d'Affairs, a.i. Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1 .4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Paraguay's Christian Democrat Party (PDC) and the Liberal Party (PLRA) held separate primaries December 9. The former confirmed ex-Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo's presidential candidacy (on behalf of the Patriotic Alliance for Change coalition) and the latter attempted to name his running mate. With 93 percent of official results reported for the Liberal Party primary, former Central Department Governor Federico Franco, with 50.17 percent of the vote, has a narrow lead over Senator Carlos Mateo Balmelli, who currently registers with 49.67 percent of the vote. Thirty-three percent of registered Liberals turned out to vote. ¶2. (SBU) The Liberal Party primary is already controversial. Franco has questioned preliminary results based on a December 4 First Analysis and Studies poll that showed him as having a 14 percent lead over Balmelli, as well as exit polls that predicted an 11-point lead. Final results may not be available for approximately two weeks, as two voting centers in Asuncion suspended operations during voting hours. Those centers will likely redo the primary on December 23. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: The Liberal Party's delay in releasing official results may be attributed to a legitimate vote-by-vote re-count. Alternatively, Liberal Party officials could be utilizing the delay to manipulate results, as has occurred with other parties (mostly the Colorados) in the past. At the very least, given the 14-point discrepancy between the latest poll and preliminary primary results, it appears we can confirm the widespread belief that Paraguayan polling is weak. END COMMENT. Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion FITZPATRICK