CAMPAIGNING IN EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN OBLAST: NUR OTAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 002244 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV OSCE KZ SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNING IN EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN OBLAST: NUR OTAN DOMINATES RELATIVELY CLEAN AND FAIR CAMPAIGN REF: A) Astana 2221 B) Astana 2223 ASTANA 00002244 001.8 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On August 10-12, Conoff and Con FSN traveled to Ust-Kamenogorsk in Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast (central eastern Kazakhstan, bordering on China and Russia) to meet with political party representatives and local authorities in advance of the August 18 elections. Additionally, Conoff attended a "town hall" meeting and press conference held by one of the parties and witnessed part of an informal campaign event held by another party. In general, the political scene in Ust- Kamenogorsk is not unlike what Post has observed throughout the country, with opposition parties encountering some hindrance (albeit seemingly minor in this particular oblast) and voicing concern about possible vote fraud, while Nur Otan dominates the airwaves and conducts the most active and visible campaign. Local authorities earnestly claim to be doing everything fairly and transparently within the law, offering equal access and opportunity to all parties. The opposition parties believe that their message - which can be summarized as "We're not Nur Otan" - is being well received, and expect that they will get a significant portion of the votes between them. They do not believe this will necessarily translate into seats, however, because of vote counting issues. End summary. -------------- -------------- EMBASSY REACHES OUT TO PARTIES, LOCAL AUTHORITIES -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On August 10-12, Conoff and Con FSN traveled to the far east of Kazakhstan, to the city of Ust-Kamenogorsk. During the trip, Conoff met with a deputy Akim of the Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast, the Akim of Ust-Kamenogorsk, representatives of Ak Zhol, and representatives of Nur Otan to discuss the progress of the campaign in the region. Conoff also attended a town hall meeting for the National Social Democratic Party (NSDP) and witnessed the awards ceremony for a run sponsored by Nur Otan. During his travels throughout the city, Conoff observed multiple Nur Otan billboards or billboards featuring President Nazarbayev, and numerous smaller Nur Otan signs on a wide variety of public places, including on the outside windows of some city buses and trams, as well as on the inside of some buses and trams. Conoff saw virtually no signs or advertisements from other parties outside of certain specially designated areas for campaign posters. -------------- OBLAST AKIMAT -------------- 3.(U) Conoff met for more than an hour with Deputy Akim of the Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast, Amangali Yedrisovich Tazhenov, in his well-appointed office in the Akimat headquarters. Tazhenov said that his focus for the elections is making sure they go smoothly and without controversy, in accordance with the law, and in a transparent manner. Tazhenov said there were long term observers from Switzerland and the Netherlands in the Oblast, and that these observers - along with the media and party observers - have permission to get all of the information they desire. ¶4. (U) Tazhenov told Conoff that the goal of the legal authorities was to create equal conditions and equal opportunities. In practice, Tazhenov said this means maintaining the official election list and giving the parties equal access to mass media and to government-owned meeting space. The oblast designated a secondary school for the parties to use for meetings and rallies. (Note: The NSDP town hall meeting was in a secondary school auditorium. End note.) Tazhenov told Conoff that there is real competition in the oblast, region and city Maslikhat elections - on average, 3 candidates are vying for every seat. ¶5. (U) Tazhenov told Conoff that some parties have not always been able to attract people to their rallies, and that some parties have complained about not having access to mass media. He noted that he had asked papers to cover events of political significance, like campaign rallies or town hall meetings. (Comment: The NSDP town hall meeting was taped by a couple of news outlets and there was a short press conference after the meeting. End comment.) According to the law, outside of legitimate news events, organizations - including political parties - must pay for newspaper space or airtime; even the Akimat must pay. Tazhenov stressed that it was not his goal to promote any particular party, and that all parties have the same campaign spending limitations. However, he noted that even if the local authorities treat all parties fairly, not all parties have the same skill or the same amount of money from their own sponsors. As for voter lists, Tazhenov said that the Akimat gave a voter list to the election commission on July 28. He acknowledged that maintaining a perfect voter list is an extremely difficult task. ASTANA 00002244 002.8 OF 004 ¶6. (U) Tazhenov said that according to President Nazarbayev, economics is first, and politics second. He compared the economic growth of Kazakhstan - about 10% per annum for the past few years - to Asian Tigers, like Vietnam. Tazhenov likened Nur Otan to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in post-war Japan. According to him, like the LDP, Nur Otan is supported by the population because the party guarantees good for the people, life has improved dramatically in the country, and people like stability. -------------- CITY AKIMAT -------------- ¶7. (U) Conoff met with the Akim of Ust-Kamenogorsk, Shakarym Sabyrovich Buktugutov, in his office. Like the Deputy Akim of the Oblast, Buktugutov said that all parties are provided with equal facilities and equal opportunities. He said his two main tasks were to supply and support election committees and to ask voters to participate in elections. Buktugutov said the city akimat is not involved in the campaigns. When asked about the tone of these elections compared to prior elections, Buktugutov said that Ust-Kamenogorsk was not historically very active compared to other regions. Like many observers, Buktugutov expects the turnout for these elections to be low due to the summer holidays. -------------- NUR OTAN -------------- ¶8. (U) Conoff met with chairman of the Oblast division of Nur Otan Tulegen Toktasynovich Ibrayev and candidate Svetlana Ivanovna Ferkho at Nur Otan's oblast party headquarters. The headquarters occupy a modern 3-story building with the Nur Otan name prominently displayed on the front. Conoff also witnessed part of an informal campaign event, an awards ceremony for a run sponsored by Nur Otan. ¶9. (SBU) Ibrayev said Nur Otan was following all laws in its election preparations. Although some observers say the election is really a contest between Nur Otan and NSDP, Ibrayev said that they don't consider one party their rival and treat all parties as worthy opponents. Ibrayev said that on a fundamental level there is little difference between the parties. All parties want the same thing, namely that Kazakhstanis live better, but some parties have different ideas of how to achieve this goal. Regarding turnout, Ibrayev said he had heard rumors that it would be low this election, but he said that the government has done so much for the people that they will show up and vote even though it's a summer election. (Comment: Ibrayev's answer to party differences was a common one. When directly asked, Ak Zhol also said that all parties have the same goal. There appears to be an emphasis on shared goals and a lack of emphasis on ideology. As in other regions, Nur Otan's financial and institutional advantages were clearly apparent. In addition to these advantages, the party seemed far more knowledgeable about and focused on the mechanics of organizing a campaign and getting out the vote. End comment.) ¶10. (U) According to Ibrayev, Nur Otan is very connected to the people. All of the party's candidates go anywhere to meet with voters, whether it's to meet 5 people or to meet 100. As in other regions, Nur Otan also performs "social services" in Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast - there is a room on the first floor of the headquarters building dedicated to this work. Nur Otan is focused on public works in Ust-Kamenogorsk. Ibrayev gave the example of cleaning the city - he said beginning 3 months ago Nur Otan organized a large campaign to clean up and renovate apartment courtyards. He also mentioned "subbotniks", who spend their weekends helping clean the city. Ibrayev said the akimat helped Nur Otan do projects. ¶11. (U) Ibrayev said the Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast division of Nur Otan often consults with the national party. He said that Nur Otan is a young party, only 8 years old, and does not have a large number of professional political specialists yet. In order to train and develop these specialists, leaders of the oblast party attend training events given by the national party. When asked by Conoff if Nur Otan is institutionalizing beyond President Nazarbayev, Ibrayev said that everybody knows that Nazarbayev is leader of Nur Otan, but they also know which local leaders are Nur Otan. He said that the party cares about the quality of its candidates and leaders, and that membership in the party is voluntary. (Note: Both Ak Zhol and NSDP made reference to certain organizations, such as hospitals, requiring employees to pay dues to Nur Otan. End note.) ¶12. (U) In addition, Nur Otan actively sponsors events. Ibrayev said that 2 days prior to meeting with Conoff there was a "day of friendship" with many of the 93 different nationalities in Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast conducting short performances. He said the event ASTANA 00002244 003.2 OF 004 was extremely well attended. Ibrayev said that the day after meeting Conoff Nur Otan was sponsoring a youth competition regarding the history of the region. The day after the meeting, Conoff saw the end of another informal event sponsored by Nur Otan, a run. There were about 100-150 people standing in a semi-circle around an emcee and an awards podium, located on a closed street. Much of the crowd consisted of teenage girls wearing sports uniforms and Nur Otan hats. Virtually everyone in the audience had a Nur Otan hat and flag. Both Ibrayev and Ferkho were in attendance, with the latter prominently wearing a large white Nur Otan t-shirt. The emcee announced the winners of the run, and then there was a call for people to register their names for a prize drawing. -------------- AK ZHOL -------------- ¶13. (U) Conoff met several local Ak Zhol candidates and chairman of the oblast division of Ak Zhol and candidate Natalya Tsikunova in Ak Zhol's headquarters. The meeting took place in Tsinukova's office behind a shop, and appeared to be the office from her job as director of a small private firm (as well as being Ak Zhol's headquarters). ¶14. (SBU) Tsikunova said she expected Ak Zhol to receive 25% of the votes. She said she is pretty sure the voters will cast ballots for Ak Zhol, but she has no doubts that the votes will not be counted in a fair manner. When asked how she came up with her forecast of 25%, she said that Ak Zhol has 16,000 party members in the region and many others who are sympathetic. She said Ak Zhol held 2 meetings with national party leaders in the secondary school and both were well attended. ¶15. (SBU) Tsikunova said the pre-election period was fair. Ak Zhol had no problems from the authorities getting posters up, and had no problems with the posters other than petty vandalism that affects all parties. Conoff only saw a few Ak Zhol posters on certain specially designated boards. When asked by Conoff why he hadn't seen many posters, Tsikunova said there was a planned publicity blitz in the last week of the campaign. Tsikunova said that the Nur Otan posters on the buses and trams were not a violation of any laws, and that it was simply a matter of money. In fact, Ak Zhol intended to run similar ads in the following week. Tsikunova said that the authorities had not interfered with placing advertisements in newspapers, and as proof handed Conoff a regional paper with two ads for Ak Zhol candidates (and one Nur Otan candidate). However, she did say that some newspapers had declined their ads, stating that they didn't want any trouble. Tsikunova said she faced the same reaction from some business owners when asking about placing campaign posters on their property. Tsikunova mentioned that although things had generally been fair, there was sometimes a blending of Nur Otan events and official city events. For example, Ust-Kamenogorsk's City Day was moved from August 30th to August 11th and the celebration occurred in the main square where Nur Otan happened to be holding an event. ¶16. (SBU) Tsikunova said Ak Zhol was not really an opposition party, but rather a party of the Kazakhstani people. They have a point of view on every question and are willing to support the government when it has good ideas. She said the platforms for all 3 main parties are virtually the same - improve the quality of life for Kazakhstanis. Ak Zhol's emphasis is quality of life for teachers, doctors, and pensioners. Tsikunova stated that Ak Zhol also performs "social services", but these appear to be of a much smaller scale than Nur Otan's. ¶17. (SBU) Virtually all of the Ak Zhol candidates present said there were big problems with the voter lists. They said that the Akims had - with no apparent legal basis - appointed supporters to be in charge of the voter list in micro regions. The candidates said that these supporters did poor work and may even have intentionally left off supporters of opposition parties. One candidate said his family was not on the voter list. The candidates also said there is a main voter list and an auxiliary list of people who are potentially eligible, and in order to get on the main voter list a potential voter needs to bring an apartment/home registration in addition to identification. The candidates feared that "babushkas" who tried to get on the voter list and failed would not try again. ¶18. (SBU) The candidates stated that Nur Otan's power is due only to President Nazarbayev. They said Nur Otan membership is mandatory in a lot of places, like hospitals. They mentioned a large local firm which requires employees to join Nur Otan and have 50 tenge a month withheld from their paycheck. The candidates said this practice was illegal, but that Kazakhstani people were too afraid to do anything about it. Tsikunova said that despite the problems, a multi-party system exists and not only does she not feel any official pressure, ASTANA 00002244 004.2 OF 004 but she says she can go to the city administration and they will listen. -------------- NATIONAL SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY -------------- ¶19. (U) Conoff attended a town hall meeting (and subsequent press conference) occasioned by 3 national NSDP candidates campaigning in Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast. Numerous college-age people dressed in NSDP t-shirts guided potential voters to the site of the meeting, an auditorium in a secondary school. Approximately 200-225 people attended the meeting. There were no signs whatsoever of interference from local authorities. The local affiliate of the Kazakhstan TV channel and another station taped the event. ¶20. (U) The crowd greeted the entrance of the 3 candidates with a standing ovation. The keynote speaker was party leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay. Tuyakbay greeted the crowd, evenly mixed between Kazakhs and ethnic Russians, first in Kazakh and then in Russian. Tuyakbay talked of a "New Kazakhstan" and described in detail 7 specific points in NSDP's platform: ¶1. Fight corruption ¶2. Reform monopolies; subsidize and regulate energy and gas prices ¶3. Reform and subsidize higher education ¶4. Increase state pensions and lower age of eligibility ¶5. Develop rural areas ¶6. Pro-family policies including rewards for having children ¶7. Support Kazakhstani common people. Fight decline of Kazakhstani values and traditions. Use Kazakhstani resources for the benefits of the people, not the few. Get a bigger share of the profit from foreign investors. ¶21. (U) Concluding his speech, Tuyakbay extolled the virtues of the NSDP, which he called the only opposition party. He said that the Communist Party urged him to boycott the election, knowing that the vote counting process would be unfair. But Tuyakbay said he decided to stay in the elections to show the bad parts of Nur Otan's practices and to show the way of fair politics. ¶22. (U) After his speech, Tuyakbay took questions from the audience for about 30-40 minutes. Most of the questions were from citizens who wanted more from the government, and most of Tuyakbay's answers were populist in tone. Notably, he was asked about an official language policy. Tuyakbay said that on the one hand you need to have a state policy that takes the interests of Kazakhs and ethnic Russians into account. He said he didn't know the answer, but he'd like to discuss the issue more in the future. (Comment: The ambivalent attitude towards the language question was apparent during the whole meeting. Tuyakbay's name was written in Kazakh on the campaign literature, and several questioners addressed him in Kazakh rather than Russian. This led to a fidgety lack of understanding from the 50% of the audience that did not speak Kazakh. End comment.) The other notable question came from a woman who complained that there isn't enough information about the political parties. Tuyakbay said that all TV is owned by rich people who are in government and you will never see any programs of opposition or criticism, only cheerful reports. Tuyakbay said Kazakhstan needs to create a public TV station so that any ordinary person could stand up and raise issues. He went on to say that if newspapers publish articles the government doesn't like, the papers are bought or destroyed or its staff is threatened. Tuyakbaya said there is a hidden struggle and there is no choice but to go to the villages and tell the truth. ¶23. (U) A second candidate spoke briefly and said NSDP is the only true opposition and that all other parties are supported by Nur Otan and government. The candidate said NSDP pays for ads, but the other parties get them free. The candidate echoed Tuyakbay's calls for better resource distribution to common Kazakhstani people. The candidate addressed a representative of the akimat in the audience and told him that NSDP is powerful and he shouldn't think that the authorities can get away with falsifying results. ¶24. (U) There was a short press conference after the town hall meeting. Ironically, the press conference was held in a classroom where a small poster of President Nazarbayev extolled his achievements. The local affiliate of the Kazakhstan TV channel and another local TV channel participated. Three questions were asked - none particularly interesting or probing - and the press conference concluded in about 5 minutes. ORDWAY