CAMPAIGNING IN NORTHERN KAZAKHSTAN OBLAST: WHERE ART THOU,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 002222 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN - O'MARA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM OSCE KDEM KZ SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNING IN NORTHERN KAZAKHSTAN OBLAST: WHERE ART THOU, OPPOSITION? Ref: Astana 1906 ASTANA 00002222 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Northern Kazakhstan Oblast (NKO) presents an interesting, albeit somewhat extreme, microcosm of Kazakhstan's campaign for upcoming Mazhilis [lower house of Parliament] and regional legislative elections. The oblast, which has the distinction of having been the strongest supporter of President Nazarbayev's reelection in 2005 (over 95% of the votes cast went for Nazarbayev, compared to a national average of 91%),is currently a pioneer in the nationwide trend of blurring the boundaries between the government and the ruling Nur Otan party. With oblast leaders also holding matching leadership positions in the oblast branch of the Nur Otan, the NKO is a poster child for the systemic obstacles to Kazakhstan's prospects of carrying out free and fair elections and becoming a more democratic society. Kazakhstan's divided, resource-hungry, struggling opposition is inconspicuous in the NKO. End summary. Can You Tear Us Apart? Oblast Government and Nur Otan -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) NKO (pop. 658,430),a deputy oblast akim proudly told visiting Econoff, has a unique match-up of leadership positions between the oblast government and the oblast apparatus of Nur Otan. The oblast's akim is the head of the Nur Otan oblast branch, the city akim of Petropavlovsk (oblast capital, pop. 193,321) is the head of the Petropavlovsk Nur Otan branch, and each and every rayon (i.e. county) akim is the head of Nur Otan's rayon branch. NKO and Nur Otan officials did note to Econoff that the akims separate their government and party responsibilities. A rayon akim, they said, does his government work in his government office (akimat) and engages in party activities at the rayon's Nur Otan headquarters. The Tayynshinski rayon akim also stated that his party leadership does not detract from his government work. In any case, this fusion of government and Nur Otan leadership in NKO is likely to endure: just as oblast akims enjoy unlimited terms (serving at the president's pleasure),rayon akims are appointed by the oblast akim for unspecified periods. ¶3. (SBU) Apart from blurred boundaries between oblast government and the Nur Otan apparatus, there are plentiful signs that Nur Otan is, in its own right, a very powerful institution. The party's oblast headquarters occupies a newly built, spacious building in Petropavlovsk. Petropavlovsk also has a separate headquarters for the Nur Otan city branch. Likewise, each rayon appears to have its own Nur Otan headquarters. The headquarters tend to have a "public services" section, which employs lawyers that hear - and attempt to respond to - citizens' complaints and requests, most commonly on issues such as housing and public services. (Comment: Given Nur Otan's stranglehold on NKO's government structures, the party is uniquely positioned to offer effective assistance to the local citizenry. End comment.) ¶4. (SBU) These institutional strengths contrast sharply with the position the opposition finds itself in. The two mainstream opposition parties, the National Social Democratic Party (NSDP) and Ak Zhol currently have no elected officials anywhere in the NKO government (i.e. no members of oblast or rayon maslikhats [local legislatures]). The two parties do have oblast headquarters: NSDP operates in a modest apartment; Ak Zhol rents a small, decrepit basement. For both, these are their only facilities in all of the NKO. Each opposition party is only working in the oblast to promote itself in national (Mazhilis) elections. Representatives of both told Econoff that they do not have the resources to engage in campaigning for rayon (local) maslikhats. NSDP does have a "public services" section employing one attorney; Ak Zhol - which only plans to maintain its headquarters for the duration of the campaign - does not. Campaign is on, Opposition Largely Invisible -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The signs of the election season are hard to miss in and around Petropavlovsk. Three types of large billboards line the city's main arteries. The first simply announce upcoming elections; the second are official campaign posters for Nur Otan, with fine-print legal disclaimers at the bottom identifying them as such; and the third are "anonymous" posters featuring President Nazarbayev and a patriotic slogan or praise for his policies. (A typical example featured a large image of Nazarbayev against the backdrop of high-rise buildings with a sentence applauding the president's housing policy.) (Note: Variations of these billboards can normally be found in modest numbers throughout Kazakhstan during non-election periods. End note.) ¶6. (SBU) Nur Otan and Ak Zhol focus their efforts in Petropavlovsk on plastering their leaflets on official, designated "posts" that ASTANA 00002222 002.2 OF 003 provide advertising space to each of the seven parties competing in the election. These "posts" did not appear to feature prominently in the city. Each rayon of the oblast is, likewise, supposed to have a "board" divided into seven equal sections for displaying each party's campaign information. In the Kyzylzharskiy rayon, such a board was indeed located close to the rayon akimat building and featured seven equal sections. Only two parties, however, had their leaflets displayed: Nur Otan and the Auyl (a populist rural party). In the Tayynshinski rayon, the board was located rather far from the official center, was not divided into sections, and was largely covered with Nur Otan posters. ¶7. (SBU) In practice, many campaign leaflets adorn private property - buildings, shops, fences, etc. The law allows posting campaign materials on private property with the owner's permission. In practice, NSDP activists told Econoff, this provision works overwhelmingly in Nur Otan's favor. Business owners feel pressured to satisfy Nur Otan's requests to display the party's materials on their property. Conversely, NSDP representatives said, business owners are often terrified when faced with the same request by the NSDP. Moreover, "permission by owner" seems to be a rather flexible concept when it comes to Nur Otan. For example, a large post office building in the Tayynshinski rayon prominently featured Nur Otan leaflets. "The post office, the building owner, gave its permission," gingerly explained a deputy rayon akim. (Note: The Post Office, KazPost, is a state-owned company. End note.) ¶8. (SBU) NKO's NSDP representatives stated that they do intend to campaign by means of posting and leafleting in rural areas. A significant obstacle, they said, was a bureaucratic delay in getting its activists accredited as official party campaigners. Only individuals with such accreditation, NSDP explained, may legally take part in "campaigning" activities. However, party officials stated, even though official campaigning had only started on July 18, they were only receiving some of the requested accreditations in the first week of August. Voting Irregularities Ahead? Opposition is Worried -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The biggest concern for the NSDP and Ak Zhol appears to be over the voting and counting processes. A key factor here is the opposition's absence from the local election commissions (reftel). The head of the oblast election commission told Econoff that his seven-member commission consists of representatives from Nur Otan and two small parties (not including NSDP or Ak Zhol). In theory, each party nominates to the commission one person, who is then subject to confirmation by the oblast maslikhat, which is dominated by Nur Otan and lacks a single member from the two mainstream opposition parties. Without having its representatives on the election commissions, the NSDP and Ak Zhol have a limited opportunity to participate in election observation. (Note: A recent law, however, gives political parties without election commission representation the right to non-voting participation in the commissions (reftel). End note.) ¶10. (SBU) Another potential problem, Ak Zhol representatives told Econoff, centers on state institutions, such as universities and hospitals. In the past, they alleged, there have been instances of what they termed "envelope voting," where universities "submit" the votes of their students, and hospitals "submit" the votes of their patients. Introduction of Saylau (the optional electronic voting system) may, Ak Zhol said, help alleviate this problem. Still, the Ak Zhol representative stated, "we do not trust the computer system," adding that in the last election, the authorities often refused to provide voters the option of casting a paper ballot despite a legal requirement to do so. ¶11. (SBU) The Ak Zhol representative also stated that fears of oblast authorities' interference have caused Ak Zhol-allied candidates for the Petropavlovsk city maslikhat to run as independents. "The fact," he added, "is that the oblast Akimat already has lists of winners in all the maslikhat elections." The Nur Otan official also remarked that the opposition is competing for the city maslikhat but expressed bewilderment at the opposition candidates' decision to run as independents. The Long, Hard Slog to Pluralism -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The split of the mainstream opposition was quite palpable in Econoff's discussions with the NSDP and Ak Zhol. NSDP representatives stated they did not recognize Ak Zhol as "opposition." In response to Econoff's question as to whether they were cooperating with any other political parties, the NSDP cited Communists. The Ak Zhol representative laughed when Econoff asked him about the ideological gaps between Ak Zhol and NSDP, calling ASTANA 00002222 003.2 OF 003 this a "very western" question. "Here," he said, "it's not about ideology; it's about personalities... It's about competing ambitions and irreconcilable personality conflicts." Even so, he acknowledged some differences of opinion between Ak Zhol and NSDP. "We are centrists, and we support the president," he remarked, pointing to a small photograph of Nazarbayev pinned above his desk. ¶13. (SBU) A reporter with an independent local weekly newspaper, present at the meeting, talked about political pressures faced by the local media and the resulting self-censorship. Tough requirements for television stations (which she described as an 80% local content requirement and a 50% Kazakh-language requirement) provide the authorities with leverage over the stations, since "no one complies." The authorities also have leverage over newspapers, she continued, thanks to the registration requirements. Any publication with more than 100 issues, she explained, requires registration; registration is also required when a newspaper changes its editor or shifts its focus. (Note: As far as we are aware, no paper has been denied re-registration since the requirement was imposed. End note.) The journalist added that since local newspapers lack a national profile, they are particularly vulnerable. Threat of litigation or prosecution for libel and slander, she continued, is also a problem. However, she noted, courts have been coming down on the side of the papers, fearing a possible "domino effect" of legal actions against the media. Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Comment. The Northern Kazakhstan Oblast (NKO) exemplifies the blurring of boundaries between the government and the Nur Otan. This institutionalization of the ruling party fuels skepticism on the part of the opposition in the government's resolve (and ability) to conduct free and fair elections. Also highly problematic is the "vertical of power" by which the Kazakhstani government operates (the president appoints the oblast akims; the oblast akims appoint the rayon akims). Under these circumstances, Astana's stated call for free and fair elections may be affected by a regional official's desire to please his boss. This may be particularly true in the NKO, whose akim won the 2005 "competition" among oblast akims to provide the president with the greatest support possible. End comment. ORDWAY