MEETING WITH THE SOMAIL EX-MPS: WHAT NEXT FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000892 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2017 TAGS: PREL KPKO UNSC ER ET SO SUBJECT: MEETING WITH THE SOMAIL EX-MPS: WHAT NEXT FOR THE ARS? ASMARA 00000892 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Following the resignation of Prime Minister Gedi, Poloff met on November 6 with members of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS),ex-Parliamentarian Yusuf Hassan Ibrahim and Mohammed Sheikh, assistant to former Speaker of Parliament Sheik Aden. Yusuf, charged with the responsibility of formulating a foreign affairs strategy, was encouraged by Gedi's resignation, however, feared that as long as President Abdallah Yusuf remains in power, Ethiopian troops will continue to occupy Somalia. "If this issue is not solved," he said, "then nothing will change." He commented that if President Yusuf would separate himself from the Ethiopians and if the Ethiopians declared their plans to withdraw, then the ARS would consider discussion with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Poloff asked about rumors alleging that the ARS had established its own militia and insurgents were fighting in the name of ARS within Somalia. Yusuf denied the rumor, stating that the MPS have no military force, however, provided the caveat that the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) may have a military arm. He said the ARS' foreign affairs strategy was to initially focus on the Arab states (such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Libya),but to also continue efforts to reach out to the U.S. and European countries. (Note: Confirming Yusuf's comments, Egyptian Deputy Chief of Mission Hosam Abdallah Nour El-din told Poloff separately that the ARS has been meeting with the Arab missions represented in Asmara. End Note.) Yusuf denied claims that ARS is building alliances with the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF),explaining that as they are liberation movements, the ARS does not see its objectives as compatible with these groups. Yusuf sees greater benefit in ARS engagement with the international community. He said the ARS wants the international community to assist in bringing together the two primary stakeholders in Somalia ) the TFG and the ARS. ¶2. (C) In a subsequent on November 20th meeting with Poloff, ex-Parliamentarian Jama Ali Jama repeated Yusuf's request for international community assistance in brokering mediation between the TFG and ARS. He explicitly requested that the U.S. play this role, explaining that since the U.S. supported Ethiopia's incursion into Somalia, the U.S. should play a role in ensuring Ethiopia's withdrawal. Jama also requested U.S. support in establishing a UN Peacekeeping force for Somalia, as the entrance of such a force would allow the Ethiopians an honorable out. He noted that Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh had all expressed interest in providing troops to a UN Peacekeeping force. With their majority Muslim populations, these countries could be acceptable peacekeepers for the Somali population. When pressed by Poloff on the relationship between the ex-MPs and the CIC, Jama said that only a few individuals in the CIC were problematic for the Alliance but that the majority of CIC members were moderate and willing to engage in a reconciliation process. ¶3. (C) Comment: Since the closing of the September conference that formed the ARS, the group has been remarkably quiet, making no public statements about plans for the future. Most ARS representatives departed Asmara before Eid al Fitr on October 17, many of them planning to conduct outreach activities with diaspora communities. With only a few ARS members remaining in Asmara during the last month (to include Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, the ARS Chairperson and head of the CIC),the post-conference efforts of the ARS to organize itself into a political structure appear to have slowed. The Egyptians, who are showing increased interest in the Alliance, recently met with CIC members. The Egyptians have also seen no significant progress since the conference. The recent return of key ARS representatives to Asmara, including ASMARA 00000892 002.2 OF 002 former Speaker Sheikh Aden, could reinvigorate the process although from Poloff's discussions with the ex-MPs, the ARS leadership seems uncertain about its next steps. While the ex-MPs seem aware that the group's viability and international credibility will dissipate if they continue to quietly hole up in Asmara, they either do not want to share their future plans with us ) or, at present, have no future plans to share. End Comment. MCINTYRE