CDA PROTESTS GSE ALLEGATIONS OF US SUPPORT FOR WAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000854 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV ASEC ER SUBJECT: CDA PROTESTS GSE ALLEGATIONS OF US SUPPORT FOR WAR Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Eritrean Government media reported on October 26 and 27, that Ethiopia planned an invasion of Eritrea the first week of November with the "blessing of the U.S." In the report, the Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE) alleged that the Tigre People's Liberation Front (TPLF)/Government of Ethiopia (GOE) intended to launch an invasion against Eritrea. The report attested that European Union does not support such an invasion. In addition the report explained that the U.S. is eager to replace the GOE forces in Somalia with another African force so that the GOE would not be engaged in a war on two fronts. Full text of the article from the Saturday, October 27 Eritrean Profile is provided in paragraph 5. ¶2. (C) In response to the media reports, CDA met at her request October 29 with Abraham Yohannes, Director of the Americas Division at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to protest the statement and seek an explanation from the GSE. The CDA challenged the article's contention that the U.S. was supporting Ethiopia in plans to initiate border conflict, characterizing the statement as a complete falsehood. She strongly emphasized the efforts the USG has been making to resolve multiple conflicts in the region, noting that renewed border conflict serves no one's interests ) including those of the U.S. The CDA requested the MFA provide an explanation for the article's claims including the source of the information. She expressed her great concern that such irresponsible propaganda could incite hostility and violence against Americans in-country. Abraham offered no immediate comment, stating he too had learned about the report upon reading the article the morning of October 27. He said he would pass on the request for additional information. He further accused the international community of doing nothing to resolve the border issue and stated that "diplomacy is all finished. It has come to the final decision( all dialogue is all over." He did note later in the conversation that "no one wants war(but that the timeframe is short and it could go in an extreme way." ¶3. (C) Comment: Post has come to expect a lack of response from the MFA. The tight-knit cabal surrounding President Isaias makes all important decisions. This group does not include our MFA contacts. Abraham, a Legal Permanent Resident of the U.S., speaks fondly of the U.S. and personally appears to welcome a discussion with the Embassy; however, he is limited in his access to inner circle planning and in his freedom to communicate openly with Embassy officials. While Post believes Abraham will lodge our protest with the higher echelons of the GSE, we do not anticipate receiving a meaningful response to our request. ¶4. (C) Comment con't In conversations with local Eritreans in Asmara, most discredit the GSE accusation, although they acknowledge that the rural and older population may be more inclined to believe the GSE statements. Our Asmara contacts see the statement as propaganda and express great concern that the GSE would consider returning to war. While some say they would welcome Meles and Ethiopian troops with open arms, others are quick to articulate the need to defend Eritrea's sovereignty but fear the cost will be great. End Comment. ¶5. (U) Eritrean Profile, October 27, 2007. Begin text: TPLF REGIME TO LAUNCH INVASION AGAINST ERITREA IN THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER WITH THE BLESSING OF THE US ADMINISTRATION, INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES AND INDIVIDUALS SAY. Intelligence agencies and individuals with close connection with foreign affairs circles say that the TPLF regime is intending to launch an invasion against Eritrea in the first week of November 2007 with the blessing of the US Administration. The sources, which indicated that the European Union does not support such an invasion, pointed out that strategies are in the process of formulation on the part of the US Administration to replace the invading forces of the TPLF regime in Somalia with another African force so as to enable ASMARA 00000854 002 OF 002 the regime to immediately withdraw its forces and thereby avoid getting engaged along two fronts. Meanwhile, political analysts that have been closely following up the Eritrea-Ethiopia issue and quoting statements by the TPLF regime in recent weeks repeatedly bragging, as regards border demarcation, that it would resort to what it called "other legal options" explained that time will tell what this "other legal option" meant on the one hand, and the truth as well as actuality of the so-called "intended" invasion on the other. End Text. MCINTYRE