SOMALI CONGRESS IN ASMARA FORMS NEW POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASMARA 000730 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017 TAGS: PREL KPKO UNSC ER ET SO SUBJECT: SOMALI CONGRESS IN ASMARA FORMS NEW POLITICAL ENTITY ASMARA 00000730 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Somali Congress for Liberation and Reconstitution opened in Asmara on September 6. The Congress has attracted over 300 Somali participants in the plenary, to include exiled Members of Parliament, members of the diaspora and civil society and the Council of Islamic Courts figures, many of whom traveled at their own expense to Asmara. Early reports indicate that as an outcome of the Congress, the representatives will establish an umbrella alliance in which the stakeholders agreed to work together on a common platform, but continue to maintain their autonomy. This agreed-upon common platform has two elements: first and foremost, foreign troops (namely Ethiopia) must withdraw from Somalia; and second, the alliance is ready for "open dialogue" with all groups in order to bring peace and stability to Somali. Most participants have stated the Congress has gone well; although some have confessed that the Congress nearly broke down over disagreements regarding the inclusion of strong Islamic rhetoric in the Congress' official documents. As for the role of the Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE),some participants assert that the Eritreans have allowed the Somalis to make their own decisions, while others indicate that the Eritreans are pressing for a more hard-line anti-Ethiopian stance. The Congress will most likely conclude on Friday, September 14, after the election of the Alliance leadership. Most of the participants will depart Asmara immediately, as it is the beginning of Ramadan, but some plan to remain for ten to fifteen days to address any outstanding issues of the Congress. ¶2. (C) As the Congress comes to a close, Post believes that the U.S. may have a window of opportunity for engagement with the newly formed Alliance. The more moderate members of the Alliance seem to recognize that in order to bring peace and stability to Somalia, and in particular to Mogadishu, they need the involvement of the U.S. in facilitating dialogue between themselves, the TFG and Ethiopia. While the MPs, civil society and others have openly expressed their anger over the past few months over U.S. policies towards Somalia, they have commented also on the positive feelings of most Somalis toward the U.S. and the valuable role they feel the U.S. can play in helping resolve the conflict there. End Summary. -------------- AN ALLIANCE FORMED BUT AUTONOMY REMAINS -------------- ¶3. (C) The Congress' foremost agenda item was to formally establish a political organization among the participants. The Congress' spokesman Zakariya Mohamed Haji (an exiled MP) told Poloff the Congress considered three options: 1) form a government in opposition to the current Transitional Federal Government led by President Yusuf; 2) establish an alliance of the stakeholders represented in Asmara; 3) merge all of the existing entities in Asmara together into one liberation organization or political party. The plenary decided on option 2, forming an alliance, in which each group (e.g. ex-MPs, CIC, diaspora and civil society) would retain their autonomy but would unite under an umbrella organization with a common platform. The MPs envision that the Alliance ultimately will support a multi-party democratic form of government, but one espousing Islamic values. ¶4. (C) In a September 12 conversation with Poloff, exiled MP Abdiraham Adan Ibrahim "Ibbi" identified as the two unifying pillars of the Alliance's common platform: the liberation of Somalia and the removal of foreign troops (namely the Ethiopian forces); and a policy of open dialogue with all Somali groups. When asked to be more specific about the dialogue, Ibbi explained that the Alliance acknowledges that it must engage in conversations with the TFG, the Ethiopians and other stakeholders to make progress towards elections in ¶2009. He emphasized, however, that for the Alliance, the ASMARA 00000730 002.2 OF 004 issue of Ethiopia's withdrawal was non-negotiable. (Comment: While the MPs strongly espouse Ethiopia's withdrawal as a precondition to any dialogue with the TFG, post believes they would be willing to address these as linked issues. Post does not know the CIC position. End Comment.) -------------- THE STRUCTURE OF THE ALLIANCE -------------- ¶5. (C) The Congress plenary agreed to the formation of a Central Committee comprised of 191 members to manage the new Alliance. (Note: There is some confusion about this number, as some participants are stating the Committee will consist of 151 members. End note.) The CIC will be allocated the majority of the Committee seats, around 68-90. The MPs will receive 40-54 seats, the diaspora 35 seats, and civil society/others 10-18 seats. The difficulty, Ibbi commented, will be ensuring that no one group has a quorum, which would allow them to make decisions in the name of the Alliance without the others. He added that since members of the diaspora and civil society may be supporters of the CIC, the plenary is asking that all of those selected for the Central Committee identify their allegiances upfront. Thus, the 68-90 seats allocated to the CIC may also include members of the diaspora and civil society. Each of the groups were instructed to nominate individuals and these names have been presented to the plenary for approval and will be finalized by the end of the conference. ¶6. (C) After the Central Committee is selected, the Committee members will elect a Chair. The Chair will then select his/her Vice Chair and present his/her name to the Central Committee for approval. According to Ibbi, if a member of the CIC is elected Chair then the Vice Chair must be selected from the MPs and vice-versa. Of note, Ibbi also stated that the MPs and the diaspora have said they will only approve a CIC representative who is moderate, who would be acceptable to the international community (i.e. not on any terrorist watch lists),and who has not publicly supported violence as a means to resolve the problems of Somalia. (Note: There is also reportedly a movement afoot to stipulate that the Chair come from neither the CIC nor MP factions. End Note.) ¶7. (C) The Chair will also select a Secretary-General to serve as the head of an executive committee (Secretariat) comprised of ten individuals. These ten individuals will oversee portfolios ranging from education and health to foreign affairs and defense. Membership in the Central Committee will not be a prerequisite for selection to one of these ten Secretariat positions. Thus, individuals not present at the Congress could be selected for these positions depending on their expertise and experience. As a check and balance, the Central Committee plans to establish six commissions (described to Poloff as being similar to U.S. Congressional committees) to monitor and oversee the actions of the Secretariat. The Congress hopes to finalize the election of Central Committee members and all selected positions in the Secretariat by the conclusion of the conference on September 14. (Comment: Post believes that at least the Central Committee, Chair, Vice Chair and Secretary-General will be named by this date. End Comment.) SIPDIS ¶8. (C) Poloff pointed out to Ibbi that this structure, with the Secretariat and ten individual portfolios (whose portfolio heads he referred to as "ministers"),more closely resembles a government than an alliance. Ibbi acknowledged the similarity but denied the implication that the Congress might be forming a shadow government by explaining that the Alliance needs to develop some mechanism for addressing the genuine concerns of the Somali people. The portfolios will address these concerns. -------------- CONGRESS DYNAMICS: MPS WALK OUT OVER "JIHAD" -------------- ASMARA 00000730 003.2 OF 004 ¶9. (C) The exiled MPs and some diaspora members have been remarkably closed-lipped about the inner workings of the Congress. Initially, Somali contacts told Poloff that the proceedings were going well and that the members of the CIC were becoming more moderate in their positions. Prior to the official opening of the conference, Ibbi reported that the CIC participants were seeing the value of a secular government and how the CIC could have an effective role in such a government without insisting on an Islamist agenda. Yet as the conference began, it appeared that the members of the CIC had not, in fact, abandoned their strong pro-Islamist positions and were jockeying to ensure their voices would be heard. ¶10. (C) According to later reports, the Congress has been fraught with tense moments. Conflicts over decision-making and efforts by some members of the CIC to use "acclamations", rather than voting, created difficulties during the Congress. Tensions reportedly peaked the morning of September 11, when the MPs, led by former Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, walked out of the plenary session. While working on the charter for the Alliance, the CIC leadership insisted the official statements should more forcefully reflect Islamic values, and an argument ensued over the design of the Alliance logo. Of particular contention was the use of the word "jihad" in the charter. Following Sharif Hassan and his supporters' walk-out, Ibbi made a furtive phone call to Poloff informing her that the Congress might "collapse" over this issue. The MPs protested to the CIC that they could not be party to any document or statement that promotes "jihad." After protracted negotiations and the establishment of a dispute committee that included Sharif Hassan, Sheikh Sharif, Sheikh Hassan Aweys, Jama Ali Jama and Sheikh Abdilahi Ali Haashi, the Congress appears to have agreed on using the word "resistance" in lieu of "jihad." One observer noted the CIC was very unhappy with this decision. -------------- ERITREA: MEDDLING OR NOT? -------------- ¶11. (C) The hands of the GSE can be seen all over the Congress -- from the government-provided transportation, the use of the new GSE parliamentary building, and the reservations in GSE-owned hotels to the language used in the public statements and behind-the-scenes machinations. In the days leading up to the Congress, Yemane Ghebremeskel of the GSE Office of the President, met daily with the representatives already present in Asmara reviewing and approving their speeches. Mr. Al-Amin Mohammed Seid, the Head of Organizational Affairs for Eritrea's sole political party, the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), spoke at the Congress opening, addressing the historic relationship between Eritrea and Somalia and their alliance in fighting their common enemy, Ethiopia. Acting Minister of Information, Ali Abdu has made regular appearances at the Congress and is reportedly very close with many of the Somalis. ¶12. (C) One Congress participant observed that the Eritreans have been pressing hard to focus the Congress solely on opposing the Ethiopian military presence in Somalia. When asked, Ibbi admitted that after each meeting with Poloff, the Eritreans demanded a debriefing but nonetheless, he dismissed claims that the Eritreans were meddling in the conference. According to Ibbi, the Somalis told the Eritreans in the July meeting in Doha that they would not allow any GSE interference in their affairs. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) The Somali MPs and diaspora contacts with whom Poloff has met routinely express anger and frustration with U.S. policy in Somalia. However, these individuals also appear willing to engage in further discussions with the U.S. about ASMARA 00000730 004.2 OF 004 bringing peace to Somalia. They have not, it seems, completely disavowed a role for the U.S. These interlocuters do insist that they be included in conversations regarding the future of Somalia, while asserting that they have an important role to play. The Congress in Asmara has made remarkable progress in a short week in establishing a structure for moving forward. The unlikely partners of the CIC and the MPs have found a way to work together and their "marriage of convenience" appears to be one that will stick, at least for the moment. Post notes that the groups are not speaking with one voice, outside of common platform issues, nor would we anticipate that they would do so under the new alliance. ¶14. (C) The influence of Eritrea on this group is unclear at this time and the GSE refuses to engage with Post in discussions about Somalia. That the GSE had its own agenda for this Congress is obvious, but the Somalis seem capable of effectively pushing back. As the Congress comes to a close, Post will continue to engage with those Somalis who remain in Asmara. MCINTYRE