SOMALI PARLIMENTARIANS SAY ASMARA CONFERENCE IS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000698 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2017 TAGS: PREL KPKO UNSC ER ET SO SUBJECT: SOMALI PARLIMENTARIANS SAY ASMARA CONFERENCE IS ON REF: ASMARA 603 Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The exiled Somali members of parliament and the members of the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC plan to inaugurate the all-Somali conference in Asmara on September 1 (reftel). With over 300 Somalis expected, the conference may result in a formal alliance between supporters of the former Members of Parliament (MPs) and the CIC, with the unifying goal of ending Ethiopian occupation of Somalia. The agenda of the conference has yet to be finalized, and the MPs want to show the world that Somalis can develop a Somali solution to a Somali problem. The MPs requested U.S. Government support of USD 1 - 2 million for their efforts. At this point in time, September 1 appears a likely start date for the conference in Eritrea with the CIC and the MPs working together, however the MPs admit to the challenges of their alliance with the CIC and seem to be willing to explore other options. End Summary. -------------- -------------- MEETING OUTCOMES: LIBERATE SOMALIA AND PLAN FOR THE FUTURE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) During an August 20 meeting with MPs Jama Ali Jama and Sharif Salah Mohammad and an August 21 meeting with former Minister of Women Fowsiya Mohammad Sheikh Hassan all emphatically stated to Poloff that the conference, planned by a committee comprised of representatives of the MPs, the Council of Islamic Courts, civil society and the diaspora, will begin on September 1. Jama Ali Jama commented on the importance of the Somalis demonstrating to the international community that Somalis can organize and manage their own political solutions, without the interfering hand of foreigners. The agenda is not yet finalized, however issues such as the liberation of Somalia, a plan for transition of the government in 2009 with elections, and the structure and function of a MP-CIC alliance in a peaceful Somalia will be discussed. When asked if the conference agenda included plans to establish a government-in-exile, Minister Fowsiya explained that the conference members will decide this issue. -------------- -------------- MEETING PARAMETERS: WHO WILL ATTEND, WHO WILL PAY -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The venue for the conference has not been finalized. Amidst rumors that the location will not be in the capital city, the MPs said they expressed to their Eritrean interlocutor, Yemane Ghebremeskel of the Office of the President, that they strongly preferred that the meeting be held in Asmara. The committee is choosing attendees through a consensus process, ensuring that all committee members agree on an individual's attendance at the meeting. All attendees will pay their own travel expenses and room and board upon arrival. Many of the attendees will be Somalis living outside of Somalia, however according to the MPs, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) will not permit their supporters to leave Somalia nor ensure their safety upon return. Minister Fowsiya described a scenario where an individual might be permitted to leave and attend the Asmara conference, however, upon return to Somalia be arrested and detained by the TFG. Reportedly, other Somalis who are not formally invited have shown an interest in attending and the committee is determining how to address these requests. In support of the conference and the MPs, Jama Ali Jama made a request to Poloff for USD 1 - 2 million from the U.S., noting that if the U.S. is really committed to peace in Somalia the U.S. should be willing to support all peaceful solutions. He also indicated that this funding would give the MPs a stronger position in the alliance, alluding to the resources of the CIC. -------------- -------------- THE CIC & THE MPS: A SHAKY MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Since the formation of the committee by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed of the CIC and the former speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, the committee has worked to find a common ground ASMARA 00000698 002 OF 002 between the two groups widely differing ideologies. The MPs continue to profess that the CIC is more moderate than portrayed, noting that Islamic courts have existed in Somalia for centuries and that all Somalis are Muslims. As for the ideological differences, the MPs allege they have made progress with the CIC and that the CIC is beginning to understand that a modern secular state is necessary and can co-exist with the Koran. ¶5. (C) Despite the upbeat portrayal of relations, the MPs recognize the alliance between the MPs and the CIC as a marriage of convenience and one that is fraught with tension and difficulties. The MPs appear to be seeking an alternative to this alliance, including a return to the Khartoum process of 2006 to support a dialogue between the TFG, the MPs and the CIC. Jama ali Jama commented, "this is a temporary alliance aimed at liberating Somalia" and Sharif Salah quietly noted that the MPs do have reservations about working with the CIC. Sharif Salah reiterated the position reported reftel, that the MPs are willing to engage in dialogue with President Yusuf, even prior to Ethiopia's withdrawal. Minister Fowsiya most clearly expressed the frustration of the MPs at their limited options, "Why are you (America) doing this? You are driving us into the arms of the CIC. We don't want to partner with them but we have no other choice. Please give us another choice." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The MPs appear to trying to find a resolution to their current situation and right now are operating under the maxim "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em." The alliance with the CIC seems shaky and complicated by vast differences in political ideologies and practice. Given the right alternative and incentives, the MPs could be tempted to shift alliances and weaken their ties to the CIC. End comment. MCINTYRE