SUDANESE DCM: GSE MOVING ON DARFUR MEDIATION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASMARA 000347 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/SPG AND AF/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2017 TAGS: PREL ER SU SUBJECT: SUDANESE DCM: GSE MOVING ON DARFUR MEDIATION AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION; CONCERNS ON BORDER TENSIONS AND U.S.-ERITREAN RELATIONS REF: ASMARA 307 Classified By: AMB SCOTT H. DELISI FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).1 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a March 28 meeting, Sudanese DCM in Asmara Hussein Mohammed Hussein claimed that the Eritreans were close to achieving agreement from the non-signatories to the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) that they would meet in Asmara mid-April for the purpose of creating a united political platform. According to Hussein, this Darfurian conference would be directly followed by an Eritrean-led mediation between the non-signatories and Sudan's Government for National Unity (GNU),also to be held in Asmara. Post has no way to judge the validity of the DCM's assertions, but notes that none of the other Sudan watchers in Asmara have indicated that the Eritreans are any further in either uniting the Darfurians or firming up a mediation date than they were in fall 2006. Hussein also provided a copy of an economic cooperation agreement signed between the Sudanese and Eritreans in Asmara in mid-March and noted that implementation is proceeding with two conferences in early April focusing on cross-border trade issues and financial/banking issues. Hussein raised his concerns about a reported increase in tensions between the Eritreans and Ethiopians and troop build-ups on the border and about the continuing poor state of relations between the U.S. and Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE). Post speculates the Sudanese are primarily concerned that further deterioration in the U.S.-GSE bilateral relationship could scuttle any possibility for an Eritrean-led mediation on Darfur but remains intrigued by the Sudanese DCM's continued unsolicitied offering of his views on a wide range of subjects of interest to the USG. End Summary. -------------- -------------- DARFUR CONFERENCE AND MEDIATION IMMINENT IN ASMARA? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Sudanese DCM Hussein Mohammed Hussein told DCM March 28 that the Eritrean delegation in N'djamena, comprised of Yemane Ghebreab and Abdella Jabir from the GSE's ruling political party People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) and General Tecle from the Ministry of Defense, is very close to gaining agreement from all DPA non-signatories to convene a conference in Asmara around mid-April. Hussein said Ghebreab and company had received agreement from Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM) figures Abdulshafie and Adam Bakheit, Sudan Federal Democratic Alliance (SFDA) Sharif Harir, and National Redemption Front and SLM leader Khamis Abdallah that they would constitute themselves into a delegation under the leadership of Ahmed Diraij. Hussein noted that JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim continues to reject political compromise but the Eritreans seem to be bringing him into the fold as well. Abdulwahid, Hussein noted, remains in Europe and is out of the picture. ¶3. (C) Hussein commented that the purpose of the proposed non-signatory planning conference was to establish a single negotiating platform and to formally elect leaders to represent the Darfurians in the negotiations with the GNU. The Eritreans plan to immediately follow this conference with an Eritrean-led mediation between the GNU and the Darfurians, also to be held in Asmara. DCM inquired about the timing of the conference and mediation given Libya's proposal for a one-day conference in Tripoli April 16. Hussein said that the conference, a follow-on to the Heads of State summit held in Tripoli in February, would focus on issues concerning the Chadian/Sudanese border, and that Eritrea would have a representative in attendance. Hussein added that the Asmara and Tripoli conference dates would be coordinated and since the purposes were different, would create no conflict. ¶4. (C) Hussein noted that Special Envoy Jan Eliasson had planned to meet with Ghebreab in N'djamena last week (the week of March 26) to discuss coordination between the Eritrean and UN-AU mediation initiatives. He also mentioned that French Special Envoy Henri de Coignac was also in Chad ASMARA 00000347 002 OF 003 during this time period and implied that de Coignac had also planned to meet with Ghebreab. -------------- -------------- ERITREAN-SUDANESE ECONOMIC COOPERATION MOVING FORWARD -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Hussein provided DCM with the translation of a statement signed March 18, 2007 in Asmara between GNU Head of Political Affairs Mustafa Osman Ismail and PFDJ Head of Economic Affairs Hagos Gebrehiwet. Both sides agreed to: -- Develop commercial activities between the countries in general, and in the border area specifically, "giving high priority to avoiding non-compliance with the rules and regulations in both countries"; -- Encourage investments in the two countries and plan joint projects; and -- Set up necessary financial institutions and "exchange of benefits of the ports of the two countries". ¶6. (C) In support of the agreement, Hussein said two conferences are scheduled for the beginning of April: one in Kassala to establish a joint committee for regulating border trade with a focus on security and customs procedures; and the second in Khartoum focusing on financial/banking issues and the regulation of trade. The primary institutions in the latter would be the Bank of Sudan and Commercial Bank of Eritrea. In response to DCM's query, Hussein said he believed Qatar would attend the conference concerning border issues. (Comment: Ref A provides information on Qatar's reported commitments to developing the Eritrean/Sudanese border. Post has also heard through our Embassy contacts that the Emir of Qatar was either in Massawa the weekend of March 31 or will come the week of April 2 -- his yacht was sighted in the harbor. If true, this visit appears to be without the pomp and circumstance one would expect for a state leader, but several recent visits by foreign government leaders to include Ugandan President Museveni last weekend, have been kept very low-key by the GSE. End Comment.) Hussein said he believed that the two conferences would prepare a framework for the conduct of "real business" between the two countries by the end of April. He noted that the main trade between the governments would focus on four commodities: oil, gas, sorghum and sugar. -------------- -------------- SUDANESE CONCERN OVER BORDER AND U.S.-ERITREAN RELATIONS -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Changing the subject, Hussein asked whether the U.S. had been following the build-up of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops on their shared border, the increase in border skirmish incidents as well as the heightened rhetoric between the two governments. He expressed his concern that the situation was becoming increasingly tense and that a renewal of hostilities would be disastrous to the entire Horn. DCM noted that we were following the activities on the border to the extent we could, but at this point, both governments appeared to be avoiding direct confrontation. When asked, Hussein had no comment on whether the Sudanese believed that hostilities were likely to flare up again. ¶8. (C) Hussein emphasized the need for improved relations between the GSE and the U.S., which he categorized as critical to stability in the Horn. DCM explained that, to date, the GSE has refused multiple requests to discuss a resolution of the continuing impasse on our diplomatic pouch and official visas. By refusing to respond to any of post's openings for dialogue on either operational or policy issues, the GSE had left the Embassy with no avenues for improving our bilateral relationship. Hussein observed that until a few years ago, Sudan also had a terrible relationship with the GSE, a situation which finally resolved itself through quiet, person-to-person negotiations. He suggested that he ASMARA 00000347 003 OF 003 personally speak with Yemane Ghebreab after his return to Eritrea, to facilitate a dialogue. DCM responded that the Ambassador and Embassy officers would be ready at any juncture to speak with the Eritreans to work through operational and policy differences, a position which post had consistently presented in our meetings with GSE officials. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Post has no way to judge the validity of Hussein's assessment that the Eritreans are one step away from gaining agreement of the DPA non-signatories to imminently join hands in Asmara. Since last fall, we have heard a constant refrain that this planning conference would occur "within a few weeks", only to have another month go by. Hussein's assertions also do not track with any other sources in-country, including the Norwegian Ambassador who maintains regular contact with Ghebreab as well. Certainly the fact that Ghebreab has stayed almost two months in N'djamena indicates that GSE negotiations may not be going smoothly. Post has heard from the Deputy at the British Embassy in Asmara that Ghebreab has applied for a visa to travel to the UK this week(for purely PFDJ business with the diaspora),but that Lord Treisman was seeking a meeting with him in London. Should a meeting occur, it could provide an opportunity to ascertain the true status of Eritrean discussions with the Darfurians. ¶10. (C) As for U.S.-GSE relations, Hussein has emphatically raised his concerns in several meetings with DCM about the rumors in town that the Embassy may reduce staff or close down if relations with the GSE do not improve. He contends (at least to us) that Eritrea and the U.S. are critical players to achieving peace in the Horn and a break in our relations would be disastrous for the entire region. Since our presence in Asmara seemingly has had little or no influence on GSE actions over the last year, post believes Hussein's primary concern is that further deterioration of our relationship would scuttle an Eritrean initiative for Darfur, which the Sudanese (at least in Asmara) are energetically plugging in lieu of the UN-AU alternative. Hussein seemed earnest in his concern over the heightened tensions at the Eritrean-Ethiopian border, yet he sees no role for Sudan in helping to alleviate the tensions between its two neighbors. Like the Eritreans, he seems insistent that the U.S. is the solution to resolving the border problem by using our influence with the Ethiopians, despite the fact that the GSE itself has rejected all efforts to constructively engage the Ethiopians through the EEBC process, and refused to respond to the Embassy's requests for dialogue. DeLisi