SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSMAN PETER HOEKSTRA'S VISIT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000324

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY); H (MARK SMITH) FOR CONGRESSMAN
HOEKSTRA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSMAN PETER HOEKSTRA'S VISIT
TO ASHGABAT


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please handle
accordingly. Not for public Internet.

Summary
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2. (SBU) Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes Congressman
Hoekstra to Turkmenistan as the first visiting member of the
United States Congress since 2002. Your visit helps to
underscore the progress made by the United States since
December 2006 in "turning a new page" in its relationship
with Turkmenistan. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan remains enmeshed
in an internal battle of emollients versus irritants.
Government officials are learning to say the right things,
but their actions are not always consistent with their words.
Although the new president, Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, is
making significant changes in some sectors, enormous
challenges remain, and it is important to realize the country
is at the very beginning of a new era. The wreck of a
country left behind by the now-deceased President-for-Life,
Niyazov, combined with 70 years of colonial Soviet rule,
compounded by nomadic/tribal customs and lack of a
nation-state concept, create the need for a new model.
Turkmenistan was never North Korea, but it is not yet
Denmark. Rather, the current state offers a rare opportunity
to develop a new model; a model molded by, and representative
of, the proud people of Turkmenistan, with patient but
consistent nudges by the international community. End
Summary.

Introduction
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3. (SBU) Turkmenistan is a hydrocarbon-rich state that
shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran. You will find
Turkmenistan in the midst of an historic political
transition: the unexpected death of President Niyazov on
December 21, 2006, ended the authoritarian, one-man
dictatorship that for 15 years made Turkmenistan among the
most repressive among the former Soviet republics. The
peaceful transfer of power following Niyazov's death
confounded many who had predicted instability because of the
former president's open-ended succession scenario. His
successor, President Berdimuhammedov, quickly assumed power
following Niyazov's death with the assistance of the "power
ministries" -- including the Ministries of National Security
and Defense -- but his position was, in fact, subsequently
confirmed through a public election in which the population
eagerly participated, even if it did not meet international
standards.


4. (SBU) Since his inauguration on February 14,
Berdimuhammedov has cautiously started moderating Niyazov's
cult of personality: although you will still see pictures of
the deceased president on all major buildings and references
to Niyazov's literary works, especially the "Ruhnama,"
scattered on signs around the city, the new president has
banned the huge stadium gatherings and requirement for
students and government workers to line the streets, often
for hours, along presidential motorcade routes.
Berdimuhammedov still pays lip service to maintaining his
predecessor's policies, but he has started reversing many of
the most destructive, especially in the areas of education,
health and social welfare. Turkmenistan's People's Council
is expected to make additional changes -- to the troubled
agriculture sector -- during a March 30 special session.
And, although the president has been slower to strengthen the
rule of law, correct Turkmenistan's abysmal human rights
record, and promote economic reform, he has told U.S.
officials he wants to "turn the page" on the bilateral
relationship and is willing to work on areas that hindered
improved relations under Niyazov. The government says it is
eager to work with the UN, OSCE, and other partners to learn
how to meet internatinoal standards.

U.S. Policy in Turkmenistan

ASHGABAT 00000324 002 OF 003


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5. (SBU) U.S. policy in Turkmenistan is five-fold:

-- Encourage democratic reform and increased respect for
human rights;
-- Encourage economic reform and growth of a market economy
and private-sector agriculture;
-- Support efforts to restore Turkmenistan's education and
health systems;
-- Encourage greater Turkmenistan participation in regional
initiatives, including diversification of Turkmenistan's
energy export options;
-- Promote security cooperation.

Berdimuhammedov remains closely tied to Niyazov-era interest
groups focused on self-preservation. Although security
cooperation continues to improve and the government has
welcomed assistance in education, health and agriculture,
many of the democratic and economic reforms the U.S.
government promotes are viewed as challenges to the regime's
existence. In the short term, the U.S. government is linking
better bilateral relations and assistance in the areas where
the regime wants development to gradual democratic and
economic reform. For the longer term, the embassy is
focusing on preparing the next generation of leaders and
society in general with tools to build a more democratic,
secure and prosperous nation.


6. (SBU) Turkmenistan remains a tempting target for
increased cooperation on energy and security, but its past
human rights record makes this cooperation problematic. In
raising its human rights concerns, the United States is
focusing on three areas:

-- Freedom of Movement: Turkmenistan maintains a travel
restriction list ("black list") of individuals not allowed to
leave or, in some cases, to travel within the country. Most
of the restricted travelers have an immediate or extended
family member implicated in the November 2002 alleged
assassination attempt against President Niyazov. The United
States is focusing its efforts on calling for: 1) a clear and
transparent process for placing a citizen's name on the
restricted travel list; 2) notification to the citizen prior
to his/her attempt to travel; and 3) the extablishment of a
process for removal from the list.

-- Religious Freedom/Country of Particular Concern: Although
Turkmenistan has improved its religious freedom record during
the past two years, some groups have still been unable to
register (a requirement for legal religious activity),and
most groups report that they continue to have difficulties
importing religious literature (other than the Bible or the
Koran). Unregistered groups continue to experience police
harassment, albeit on a much lesser scale than previously.
Finally, though minority religious groups receive the lion's
share of international religious freedom groups' attention,
the Niyazov regime's direct attack on Islam (in fact, making
worship of Niyazov and the Ruhnama the state religion) are
also a matter of serious concern.

-- Civil Society Group Registration: Since the 2003 law that
required all registered NGOs to re-register, very few
independent NGOs have been registered by the Ministry of
Justice. The embassy has determined that fewer than ten
independent civil society groups have received NGO
registration under the new law. Even after registration,
however, NGOs continue to have problems, including monitoring
of their activities. The embassy has provided legal
consultations on registration issues to civil society groups
wanting to register, but ultimately the law on registration
of organizations will probably need to be reformed.

Foreign Policy
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ASHGABAT 00000324 003 OF 003



7. (SBU) Notwithstanding his statements that he plans to
continue the neutrality policies of his predecessor,
Berdimuhammedov -- probably at the advice of Deputy Chairman
of the Cabinet of Ministers and Foreign Minister Rashit
Meredov -- has put a virtually unprecedented emphasis on
foreign affairs. Indeed, Berdimuhammedov has met or spoken
telephonically with all the leaders in the region --
including with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, with whom
Niyazov maintained a running feud -- and agreed to visits.
He has also held very positive meetings with two U.S. State
Department officials and leaders of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and United Nations
to discuss areas of potential assistance, and has agreed to
visits by the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights in May and
to a visit by the UN's Special Rapporteur on Religious
Freedom at an as-yet undetermined date.

Security Cooperation
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8. (SBU) Turkmenistan continues to occupy a strategic
location in the Global War on Terrorism. Niyazov's
UN-endorsed policy of "positive neutrality" kept Turkmenistan
at arm's length from Russian military encumbrances -- and
from Iranian maneuvering; Niyazov used his minimal security
relationship with the United States to show his
"independence" from Moscow. Turkmenistan remains an
important conduit for humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan,
and maintenance of overflights and the military refueling
operation at Ashgabat Airport remains a key embassy goal.


Gas Games
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9. (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves,
but Russia's monopoly of its energy exports has left
Turkmenistan receiving less than the world price and overly
beholden to Russia. Pipeline diversification, including both
a pipeline to China proposed for 2009 and the possibility of
resurrecting plans for a Trans-Caspian pipeline that would
avoid the Russian routes, and construction of high-power
electricity lines to transport excess energy to
Turkmenistan's neighbors, including Afghanistan, would not
only enhance Turkmenistan's economic and political
sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of prosperity
throughout the region. Berdimuhammedov recognizes the need
for more options and has taken the first steps to this end,
but he will require encouragement and assistance from the
international community if he is to maintain course in the
face of almost certain Russian efforts to keep Turkmenistan
from weaning itself away from Russia.


10. (U) Team Ashgabat looks forward to your visit and thanks
you for coming to Turkmenistan.

HOAGLAND