TURKMENISTAN: PRESIDENT NOTES REFORM PROGRESS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASHGABAT 001381 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL, EEB STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTDA DAN STEIN ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/THOMPSON COMMERCE FOR HUEPER AID/W FOR EE/AA (WALLIN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET EINV EFIN ECON TX SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: PRESIDENT NOTES REFORM PROGRESS, CALLS FOR MORE DURING YEAR-END CABINET MEETING Classified By: CHARGE RICHARD E. HOAGLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 (B),(D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. During an unusually wide-ranging December 18 Cabinet of Ministers meeting, Turkmenistan's President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov reviewed his government's accomplishments over the past year. Although the president said he was generally pleased with the pace of reforms, he nonetheless reiterated previous complaints about many of his cabinet members' inability to "move with the times." The State Agency for Management and Use of Hydrocarbon Resources and Deputy Chairman for Industry and Communications Ashyrov faced particular criticism, and the president fired the Turkmen Agricultural Machinery Association chairman for "grave shortcomings." During the meeting, the president laid out his priorities for 2008, including more construction and the need to increase human capacity. The president announced establishment of a new special commission to improve legislation, as well as a new Institute of Law under the Supreme Council on Science and Technology. He also approved a new 12-year national program on rural development, and called for new investors in the communications sector to better increase competitiveness. At the end, Berdimuhamedov backtracked somewhat from previous calls to "be happy" during the holiday season, rather than to focus on his predecessor's death. Announcing that "the elder" was a "dear person to us all," he laid out a modest program -- including a flower-laying -- to commemorate frmer President Niyazov's death a year ago. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Berdimuhamedov characterized the unusually wide-ranging December 18 Cabinet of Ministers meeting as a review of what the government had accomplished over the last year. Using an expanded version of his by-now familiar monthly review sessions, which involve both cabinet members and provincial governors, the president first listened to reports by most of his vice premiers, offering up reprimands for those cabinet members he felt have not performed adequately, then offered his own assessment. (Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers/Foreign Minister Rashit Meredov was the only deputy premier who did not report.) In his opening statement, Berdimuhamedov emphasized that 2007 has been a year of fundamental changes in Turkmenistan, and it therefore is extremely important to assess achievements objectively, to plan new tasks based on thorough analysis and to determine priority areas for further reform. ¶3. (C) Highlights of the give-and-take on the reports include: -- Minister of Economy and Finance Geldimuradov claimed that Turkmenistan's Aggregate Industrial Output (AIO) grew by 21% over 2006, while its GDP growth is reported at 11.6%. (COMMENT: This is the first time the government has reported the two indices separately. In the past, it used to report only the AIO index. The EBRD representative in Turkmenistan described the figure of 21% as "nonsense." END COMMENT.) Geldimuradov also stated that the Government expects the inflation rate to decrease from 7% in 2006 to 6% by the end of 2007. (NOTE: EBRD has pegged inflation between September 2006 and September 2007 at 19%, and prices have continued to increase since September. END NOTE.) -- Oil and gas production has increased by 9%, and exports of gas will have increased by 10% over 2006 levels. However, Berdimuhamedov noted that the level of investment exceeds the level of return. Turkmenistan has not achieved its target volume of 10.4 million tons of oil production, and stated that the establishment of the State Agency for Management and ASHGABAT 00001381 002 OF 004 Use of Hydrocarbon Resources "has not changed anything." The president also instructed hydrocarbons sector officials to unconditionally implement the 2030 Petroleum Development Plan, including providing gas to remote areas. (COMMENT: All agree that, under current conditions, the targets laid out in the Petroleum Development Plan are totally unrealistic. Although oil production by foreign firms operating under production sharing agreements is increasing, state production is decreasing. This should increase pressure for Turkmenistan to agree to new production sharing agreements that are in the works. END COMMENT.) -- When Mejlis (Parliament) Speaker Nurberdiyeva reported on Mejlis efforts to promote democratic reforms, Berdimuhamedov stated that Turkmenistan has entered into a new stage of reform, and stressed that the drafting of new legislation and amendment of old legislation must be directed toward achieving the norms of international laws. -- The President told Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers for Education Saparlyev that education reforms must be speeded up. Emphasizing the role of literature in education, the president called for better books, especially for children. -- Deputy Chairman for Industry and Communications Ashyrov (whose portfolio includes the perennial problem spots of railways and civil aviation) was criticized by the president for not ensuring an adequate level of management over transportation and communications and especially for insufficient coordination with investors on the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway project. The president again singled out Turkmen Airlines for special censure, noting the system's many shortcomings. (NOTE: This is the fourth time this year that Ashyrov has been criticized. END NOTE.) -- Berdimuhamedov called for more world-class technology in textile production, especially in marketing, and criticized "old, outdated approaches" to overall trade efforts. -- Minister of Agriculture Orazgeldiyev announced that Turkmenistan will begin using a new, scientifically tested crop rotation program, and the president called for a new newspaper -- "Fruitful Land" -- that will help farmers learn about the most modern technology and the best international practices. A. Esenov was appointed the newspaper's editor. -- The president singled out Chairman Tajov of the Turkmen Agricultural Machinery Association for special censure. Accusing Tajov of grave shortcomings for a number of alleged financial violations (including prematurely writing off expensive machinery, improperly using spare parts and lubrication oils) that led to the loss of 49 John Deere and Case New Holland units over the last eight years, the president fired Tajov and referred his case to the Office of the Prosecutor General for investigation into possible criminal wrongdoing. (COMMENT: This investigation apparently is one of the first carried out by the Supreme Auditing Chamber under the leadership of former Deputy Minister for Economy and Finance Jeparov. Some observers have suggested that this investigation demonstrates Jeparov's willingness to go after blatant wrongdoing, auguring well for the Chamber's future. END COMMENT.) THE PRESIDENT'S NEW PRIORITIES: CONSTRUCTION AND INCREASING HUMAN CAPACITY ASHGABAT 00001381 003 OF 004 ¶4. (U) Offering a generally positive assessment of the the reports he had heard, the president noted that 2007 has seen implementation of broad agricultural, education, economic, and other reforms that are supported by Turkmenistan's people. In foreign policy, there had been a big breakthrough and an expansion of international cooperation. In particular, increased foreign investment has contributed to a large extent to implementation of serious economic and social reforms. ¶5. (U) Stating that all achievements will be directed toward the public's well-being, the president announced that he would sign decrees to build 38 new projects in Ashgabat by the end of 2009, including residential apartments, schools and kindergartens. He announced that the Turkish firm, Polimeks, would be awarded a 125 million Euro contract to overhaul the airport facilities in the Caspian port city of Turkmenbashy. He also gave Kotam Enterprises, another Turkish construction firm, a contract to build a $7.5 million medicinal cotton factory in Ashgabat, and Kylych Insaat a contract to build an $11 million school and $5 million kindergarten in Dashoguz. The president also once again plugged a number of "his" large international construction projects, including the Turkmenistan-China and Caspian littoral gas pipelines, the laying of the North-South transportation corridor from Kazakhstan to Iran, and the establishment of the multi-billion dollar Awaza tourist zone near Turkmenbashy. ¶6. (U) The president focused most of his attention on the need to increase human capacity. He characterized the work of a number of his cabinet members as lacking, both in terms of bad management and also in terms of misunderstanding top priorities. Many officials are having problems orienting themselves to the here-and-now, and are thinking and acting in an outdated manner. He made clear that this must stop. ¶7. (U) Other priorities include: -- The president called on his cabinet to do more in the area of science, and particularly in searching out and educating talented youth. -- Despite having the most modern equipment, television, radio, and publications lack creativity. He also noted that the cinematography sector has almost closed down, and no new movies have been produced lately. -- Unification of the foreign exchange rates by 2009 must be implemented extremely carefully. The president called on the responsible officials to carry out this program only after a thorough analysis and assessment, in order to avoid hurting the people. -- Stressing the need to improve Turkmenistan's legislative base, the president announced that there is a need for "a new look at laws, the elimination of existing discrepancies, and the need to bring our legislation into compliance with international law." To this end, the president established a new special commission to improve legislation, which he will chair. The commission will focus on passing legislation that will attract foreign investment and technology to Turkmensitan. He also established an Institute of Law under the Supreme Council on Science and Technology. -- The president reiterated his intention to earmark $4 billion for rural development and approved the "National Program to 2020 on Reforming Social and Living Conditions of ASHGABAT 00001381 004 OF 004 the Population of Villages, Settlements, Towns within Districts and District Centers." Among other things, the program requires provincial governors and relevant agencies to develop an annual plan of activities, with all proposed construction projects to be approved by February 15. -- The president stated that Internet and the mobile phone network will only be accessible to everyone when there is a system of healthy competition in place, which means that Turkmenistan needs to learn work with partners. The president called for new investors in this sector, stating that "Monopoly does not promote progress. People must have a choice." COMMEMORATING NIYAZOV'S DEATH: THE BARE MINIMUM ¶8. (SBU) The president, who at a previous cabinet meeting had decided that the Eid al-Adha and New Year's holidays should be "happy" and not focused on commemorating former President Niyazov's December 21, 2006, death, noted that "the elder did a lot for the country, for the people and the one-year anniversary has to be marked." Having consulted with clergymen, Berdimuhamedov during the meeting set commemoration events -- including a flower-laying -- for December 20 and 21. He concluded by calling all to participate in the events because the "elder" was a dear person to "us all." (COMMENT: Despite the president's words, we find the scale of commemoration events -- at least, those that we know about now -- to be the bare minimum. It is clear that Berdimuhamedov has no intention of creating a major day of mourning. END COMMENT.) ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Held almost one year after Niyazov's death, this meeting offers interesting insights into Berdimuhamedov's own assessment of the year's greatest achievements and disappointments. Despite the president's "generally positive" assessment, we sense in his comments about officials' old-fashioned attitudes substantial (and well-deserved) frustration with the lack of human capacity and slow pace of reform to date in some sectors. The Catch-22 is his demand for rapid change has to be implemented by those lacking capacity and who are reluctant to accept outside advice. Even so, there is also plenty to cheer about in this one-year review, including his new initiatives to assist with bringing Turkmenistan's laws up to international standards, his emphasis on economic competition and foreign partners, and -- most particularly -- the indications that he plans to continue moving his country forward with much-needed reform. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND