TURKMENISTAN/CIS SUMMIT: BERDIMUHAMEDOV PUSHES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001296 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, EEB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON TX CIS SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN/CIS SUMMIT: BERDIMUHAMEDOV PUSHES FOR INCREASED TRADE, INVESTMENT AND TRANSPORT TIES REF: ASHGABAT 1186 ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: For the first time in nearly 15 years, Turkmenistan hosted the November 22 CIS Heads of Government summit. Although many may have been hoping that President Berdimuhamedov would agree to more active participation in the grouping, the president made clear that his real interest -- as in his other foreign outreach efforts -- was in promoting stronger economic, trade and investment ties. The group considered 30 issues, many of which had been raised previously at the CIS Heads of State summit in Dushanbe in October, and trumpeted a purported move toward "greater integration" (which was, however, unsupported by any concrete steps). Overshadowing the news of the CIS meeting for many was the news that Berdimuhamedov had agreed during a bilateral meeting with Russia's Prime Minister Zubkov to move forward with construction of a Caspian littoral pipeline and will sign a contract to that end by the end of the year. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (SBU) This was the first time Turkmenistan has hosted a meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in nearly 15 years. Government contacts have told us that they have been preparing for the November 22 CIS Heads of Government summit for days. President Berdimuhamedov first offered an opening briefing at the Presidential Palace in which he outlined Turkmenistan's most recent accomplishments and cooperation priorities. Later, he made the opening speech at the CIS summit, held at the Ruhyet Palace. On the fringes, he had bilateral meetings with the heads of government of Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and other CIS countries. Following the conclusion of the one-day event, Russia's Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov stayed on for an additional day of bilateral meetings, which included Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller (septel). INCREASING THE CAPACITY OF THE CASPIAN LITTORAL PIPELINE ¶4. (U) At the Presidential Palace, President Berdimuhamedov spoke generally about Turkmenistan's development goals and its priorities for foreign cooperation, including with other CIS countries. In a speech that introduced many of the same elements he later expanded on at the Ruhyet Palace, he discussed his efforts to improve Turkmenistan's economy and education system. He also briefly raised gas and oil, noting that Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia are working to increase the capacity of the Caspian littoral and the Central Asia-Center IV (CAC-IV) pipelines. The Caspian littoral pipeline's capacity will be increased to 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year, he said. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yanukovich, who chaired the subsequent CIS summit, later expressed Ukraine's readiness to participate in the pipeline's construction. COOPERATION PRIORITIES: TRADE, INVESTMENT AND TRANSPORTATION ¶5. (U) In his opening speech to CIS heads of government at the Ruhyet Palace, President Berdimuhamedov focused almost exclusively on outlining Turkmenistan's CIS cooperation priorities: economic development, increased trade and expanded transportation ties. Berdimuhamedov hyped his proposed Kazakhstan-to-Iran transportation corridor and a proposal to strengthen shipping lanes between the Caspian ports of Turkmenbashy, Astrakhan and Aktay as initiatives that could greatly speed up the transportation of freight both north-to-south and east-to-west. There could also be greater cooperation in investment, including in the hydrocarbons, energy, construction, transport and tourism and recreation spheres. Berdimuhamedov raised Turkmenistan's Awaza resort development program on the Caspian Sea, urging companies from the CIS region to participate in a December 3 project presentation event in Turkmenbashy City. The ASHGABAT 00001296 002 OF 002 president also noted the importance of expanding CIS cooperation in the areas of culture and education. CONCRETE RESULTS: GREATER INTEGRATION? ¶6. (U) Under Yanukovich's leadership, the summit agenda reportedly included 30 issues, many of which had been previously raised during the October 2007 CIS Heads of State summit in Dushanbe. Topics included transportation, customs, finance, energy, military cooperation, and social and cultural issues. Participants signed a number of documents, including on standards, metrology and certification, and customs procedures harmonization for electrical energy transmissions. (Notably, there was no agreement signed on either the Caspian littoral or CAC-IV pipelines.) The heads of government agreed to set up a group to work out strategies for developing food markets, discussed the development of distance learning in the CIS, agreed to declare 2008 as the Year of Literature and Reading in the CIS, and decided to hold the next Heads of Government summit in Minsk in May ¶2008. Although the media played up a purported agreement to promote integration processes within the CIS and a desire to strengthen comprehensive cooperation while taking into account the national interests of CIS countries, there was no evidence that this last element resulted in any concrete steps forward. CIS Director Lebedev also reportedly spoke in a general way about wanting to see Turkmenistan increase its role in the organization, but there is no indication that President Berdimuhamedov followed up on this invitation. GAS NEGOTIATIONS ON THE SIDELINES ¶7. (SBU) At the same time as the CIS summit was taking place at the Ruhyet Palace, Turkmenistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs was carrying out negotiations focused on delimitation with part of the Azeri delegation. There has been no word about concrete results from those negotiations. In a private meeting with poloff, Ukrainian First Secretary Igor Roman offered the opinion that the Turkmen side does not want to participate in a Trans-Caspian pipeline project until full delimitation is achieved, and is thus leaning in the near term toward the littoral pipeline project. He added that while Ukrainian companies are ready and willing to help with the construction, Ukraine and Turkmenistan still have significant business disputes they have to work out before new contracts can be undertaken here (reftel). The day after the summit, Russian Prime Minister and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller met with Berdimuhamedov, and the Russian media has been trumpeting Berdimuhamedov's purported agreement to launch construction of the Caspian littoral pipeline project ahead of the projected late-2008 schedule (septel). ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: With President Berdimuhamedov's new definition of Turkmenistan's neutrality policy, he has sought a balance that promotes increased economic, trade and transportation ties, while eschewing greater engagement in certain multilateral political fora and on a military level. As he gets more enmeshed with the CIS -- and with the competing gas interests in the region, most of whom view increasing export options for Turkmenistan's gas as a zero-sum game -- Berdimuhamedov may find that trying to maintain that balance may cause increasing friction with the country's traditional trading partner, Russia. CURRAN