TURKMENISTAN: A PEEK BEHIND THE CURTAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001246 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR TX SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: A PEEK BEHIND THE CURTAIN REF: ASHGABAT 1239 Classified By: CHARGE RICHARD E. HOAGLAND FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Turkmenistan has one of the most opaque political systems in the world. The decision-making process and relationships among the various elites are difficult for outside observers to ascertain. However, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) country director Tony Myron (strictly protect) has spent four years in Turkmenistan and developed a wide range of contacts in the country's polical/economic circles, which has allowed him to peek behind this opaque curtain. For example, Myron is able to pick up the phone and talk to Central Bank Chief Geldimurat Abylov. In fact, according to Myron, the evening following the recent sudden drop in the unofficial dollar exchange rate (reftel),Myron sat down with Abylov and Abylov's deputy to discuss what it all means. On November 17, Myron shared with us some of what he has learned about Turkmenistan's leadership. WHY BERDIMUHAMEDOV? ¶2. (C) According to Myron's sources, elites chose President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov to succeed former president Niyazov, because the constitutional successor, Mejlis (Parliament) Speaker Ovezgeldi Atayev, quickly showed he would be a danger to them. Reportedly, later on the day of Niyazov's death, several of the deputy chairmen of the Cabinet of Minsters and some ministers gathered together to discuss next steps. Atayev, who as Speaker of the Parliament, should have been the acting president, came to the meeting dead drunk. (NOTE: It is unclear if Atayev had been drinking because he heard the news or was summoned to the meeting while he had been drinking. END NOTE.) Thinking that his position was secure, Atayev started to berate those assembled and told them he was going to get his revenge for how he had been treated during Niyazov's rule. He started pointing at the various attendees and screaming that he would arrest each one. Led by Minister of Defense Agageldi Mammetgeldiyev, who was one of those singled out by Atayev for punishment, the group decided that Atayev had to go. Myron said Berdimuhamedov was chosen because he was viewed as someone who would want a departure from Niyazov's methods. While Berdimuhamedov had avoided arrest or public censure during Niyazov's rule, his day was rapidly coming. He was under pressure from the old regime and his deputy had been tortured. In addition, relatives had also suffered under Niyazov's rule. FAMILY TIES ¶3. (C) Myron said that the wife of Vneshekonombank Chairman Guvanch Goklenov is the sister of Berdimuhamedov's wife. Myron said Goklenov will likely replace Abylov as head of the Central Bank, if heads roll over the recent exchange rate problem. Goklenov is also the nephew of Minister of Textiles Jemal Goklenova. Myron offered that one reason Chalik Holdings Chairman Ahmet Chalik's fortunes have dipped under this new regime is because Berdimuhamedov believes that Chalik, who at one point had been vice minister in charge of textile imports while Goklenova was Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers for textiles, was responsible for her imprisonment. According to rumor, Goklenova had wanted to see more authority for textile export decisions given to a Turkmen citizen, which would have greatly decreased Chalik's authority. Chalik went to Niyazov and, only a few weeks later, Goklenova was first demoted, then imprisoned by the former president. PRESIDENTIAL CHICKENS ¶4. (C) Myron is not the only European in Ashgabat with ties ASHGABAT 00001246 002 OF 002 to the leadership. Myron said Luigi Fontana-bona, General Director for the Nissa and President Hotels, had close ties to Niyazov and maintains those ties to Berdimuhamedov. Fontana-bona and cohorts from his town in Italy are involved with a number of the hotels in Ashgabat. One also serves as the president's personal chef and another is in charge of the president's chicken farm. Roberto Pizzotti, the former General Manager of the President Hotel, used to be in charge of the president's chicken farm, but was fired recently from that position and his job at the hotel over some (unspecified) issue involving the farm. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Myron's sources are as good as anyone's, and his information about the family relationships is probably unimpeachable. What is clear is that relationships play an enormous role in who is allowed to have power here. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND