SCENESETTER FOR THE ADJUTANT GENERAL, NEVADA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 ASHGABAT 001192 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EPET MARR PGOV PREL TX SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE ADJUTANT GENERAL, NEVADA NATIONAL GUARD VISIT TO TURKMENISTAN, 6-12 NOVEMBER 2007 (U) Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard Hoagland for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public internet. SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Your visit to Turkmenistan follows the celebration on October 27th of Turkmenistan's 16th Anniversary of its independence. This visit helps continue the ongoing, bilateral dialogue on security issues, while reinforcing the progress made by the United States since December 2006 in "turning a new page" in its overall relationship with Turkmenistan. Although the new president, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, is making significant changes in some sectors, it is important to realize the country is at the very beginning of a new era. The wreck of a country left behind by the now-deceased President-for-Life, Niyazov, combined with 70 years of colonial Soviet rule, compounded by nomadic/tribal customs and lack of a nation-state concept, create the need for a new model. Turkmenistan was never North Korea, but it is not yet Denmark. Rather, the current state offers a rare opportunity to develop a new model; a model molded by, and representative of, the proud people of Turkmenistan, with patient but consistent nudges by the international community. ¶3. (SBU) Our security relationship with Turkmenistan continued unabated through the period of the presidential transition and the Defense Ministry appears ready for future cooperation to continue at a slow and consistent pace. Competition for the time and attention of security officials is increasing, however, as other countries, such as Russia, also are keen to improve their security relationships with Turkmenistan. The challenge for U.S. security cooperation efforts remains finding areas with real traction that produce meaningful changes and result in a stronger, sovereign state and better security partner for the United States. END SUMMARY. INTRODUCTION -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A hydrocarbon-rich state that shares borders with Afghanistan and Iran, Turkmenistan is in the midst of an historic political transition. The unexpected death of President Niyazov on December 21, 2006, ended the authoritarian, one-man dictatorship that by the end of his life had made Turkmenistan's government among the most repressive in the world. The peaceful transfer of power following Niyazov's death confounded many who had predicted instability because the former president had no succession plan. President Berdimuhamedov quickly assumed power following Niyazov's death with the assistance of the "power ministries" -- including the Ministries of National Security and Defense, and the Presidential Guard. His position was subsequently confirmed through a public election in which the population eagerly participated, even though it did not meet international standards. NIYAZOV'S LEGACY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Berdimuhamedov inherited a country that former President Niyazov had come close to running into the ground. Niyazov siphoned off much of Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon proceeds into non-transparent slush funds used, in part, to finance his massive construction program in Ashgabat at the expense of the country's education and health-care systems. Politically, his increasing paranoia -- particularly after the 2002 armed attack on his motorcade -- led to high-speed revolving-door personnel changes at the provincial and national level, and an obsessive inclination to micro-manage the details of government. Criticizing or questioning Niyazov's decisions was treated as disloyalty, and could be ASHGABAT 00001192 002 OF 006 grounds for removal from jobs, if not worse. Niyazov's "neutral" foreign policy led to Turkmenistan's political and economic isolation from the rest of the world, and his policies calling for mandatory increases in cotton and wheat production led to destructive agricultural and water-use policies that left some of Turkmenistan's arable land salty and played-out. EDUCATION -- "DIMMER PEOPLE EASIER TO RULE" -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Niyazov's attacks on the educational system grew increasingly destructive in his later years. The Soviet-era educational system was broadly turned into a system designed to isolate students from the outside world and to mold them into loyal Turkmen-speaking presidential thralls. President Niyazov famously defended this policy when, in 2004, he told a fellow Central Asian president, "Dimmer people are easier to rule." Niyazov's destruction of his country's education system included cutting the Soviet standard of ten years of compulsory education to nine, firing large numbers of teachers, and introducing his own works as core curriculum at the expense of the traditional building blocks of a basic education. He slashed higher education to two years of study and discouraged foreign study by refusing to recognize foreign academic degrees. Taken together, these steps created a "lost generation" of under-educated youth ill-equipped to help Turkmenistan take its place on the world stage. RULE OF LAW -- A LOW BAR -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Niyazov seriously harmed Turkmenistan's political system. His capricious authoritarianism left a legacy of corrupt officials lacking initiative, accountability, and -- in many cases -- the expertise needed to do their jobs. Young officials who came of age after Niyazov's destructive changes to the education system are particularly deficient in skills and broader world vision needed to facilitate Turkmenistan's entry into the international community. Many laws lack transparency and provision for oversight and recourse. The population's lack of understanding of the meaning of rule of law has left the bar low in terms of citizens' expectations of their government. BERDIMUHAMEDOV BEGINS TO REBUILD THE SYSTEM -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Berdimuhamedov still pays nominal lip service to maintaining his predecessor's policies, but he has started reversing many of the most destructive, especially in the areas of education, health, and social welfare. He has restored -- and in many cases -- increased old-age pensions that Niyazov had largely eliminated. The president is embarking on a course of hospital-building, with the main focus on improving medical facilities in Turkmenistan's five provinces. To this end, he has already authorized construction of five provincial mother-and-children (maternity) hospitals. He has also publicly committed to improve rural infrastructure and to ensure that every village has communications, electricity and running water. ¶9. (SBU) In education, Berdimuhamedov is reversing many of the policies Niyazov ordered him to implement while he served as Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers for Education. Since his inauguration, Berdimuhamedov has ordered a return to the compulsory standard of ten years' education, a return of universities to five years of classroom study, and a new emphasis on exchange programs and the hard sciences. On July 13, he called for recognition of foreign academic degrees, a major step which would allow exchange students to receive credit for their overseas study. The goal is to repair Turkmenistan's broken education system as quickly as possible and to give the country the educated workforce that it needs ASHGABAT 00001192 003 OF 006 to compete commercially. These efforts, however, are hampered by old-thinking bureaucrats, especially in the Ministry of Education, who sometimes block or otherwise impede foreign assistance programs. This may perhaps be a legacy of the culture of xenophobia Niyazov had encouraged. ELIMINATING THE CULT OF PERSONALITY -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has incrementally started dismantling Niyazov's cult of personality. Huge posters of the deceased president are beginning to be removed from public buildings. References to Niyazov's "literary" works, especially the Ruhnama, are less frequent and probably will fade away over time. The new president has banned the huge stadium gatherings in his honor and requirement for students and government workers to line the streets, often for hours, along presidential motorcade routes. That said, in some places, Niyazov's picture has been replaced by Berdimuhamedov's, and the new president's quotes are now replacing Ruhnama quotations on newspaper mastheads. However, these are practices common in Central Asia. FIRST STAGES OF POLITICAL REFORM -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has begun replacing the ministers he inherited from Niyazov. His focus seems to be on finding better-qualified individuals. On August 24, he established a &Human Rights Commission8 to help bring the practices and policies of Turkmenistan's government agencies into line with international standards and human rights conventions. He has established a state commission to review complaints of citizens against law enforcement agencies, which has become a vehicle for pardoning at least some of those imprisoned ) including for complicity in the 2002 attack on the presidential motorcade ) under Niyazov. Berdimuhamedov pardoned 11 prisoners, including the former Grand Mufti of Turkmenistan, Nasrullah ibn Ibadullah, in early August, and promised he would pardon more in the future. Berdimuhamedov has also agreed to allow UNDP to provide human rights training to police. ¶12. (SBU) In addition, he has slowly begun to walk back some of the most restrictive controls on movement within the country, first removing police checkpoints on the roads between cities, then -- on July 13 -- eliminating the requirement for Turkmenistan's citizens to obtain permits to travel to border zones (however, the permit system remains in force for foreigners). Although the president has been slower to strengthen the rule of law, correct Turkmenistan's previous human rights and religious freedom record, and promote economic reform, he has told U.S. officials he wants to "turn the page" on the bilateral relationship and is willing to work on areas that hindered improved relations under Niyazov. He has approved an unprecedented number of visits by U.S. delegations since he took office, including those directed toward promoting change. FOREIGN POLICY: A NEW FOCUS ON ENGAGEMENT -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Notwithstanding his statements that he plans to continue the "neutrality" policies of his predecessor, Berdimuhamedov -- probably at the advice of Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Foreign Minister Rashit Meredov -- has put a virtually unprecedented emphasis on foreign affairs. Indeed, Berdimuhamedov has met or spoken by telephone with all the leaders in the region -- including with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, with whom Niyazov maintained a running feud. He has exchanged visits with Russia's President Putin, and held a high-profile gas summit with Putin and Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev in Turkmenistan's Caspian seaside city of Turkmenbashy (Krasnovodsk). China has a strong and growing commercial ASHGABAT 00001192 004 OF 006 presence in Turkmenistan, and continues to court Berdimuhamedov through a series of high-level commercial and political visits. In mid-July, Berdimuhamedov made a state visit to China, focused mainly on natural gas and pipeline deals. While Turkey has given Berdimuhamedov top-level treatment, including an invitation to Ankara, its relationship with Turkmenistan continues to be colored more by the image of its lucrative trade and construction contracts that are siphoning hundreds of millions of dollars away from state budgets here than by generous development assistance or fraternal support. Berdimuhamedov has also held positive meetings with high-level U.S. State Department officials and leaders of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and United Nations to discuss areas of potential assistance. He met with UN High Commissioner on Human Rights Louise Arbour in May, the Head of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR),Christian Strohal, and agreed to a visit by the UN's Special Rapporteur on Religious Freedom at an as-yet undetermined date. He most recently made his first trip to the United States as president to participate in the UNGA session in September. ENERGY RESOURCES -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves, but Russia's monopoly of its energy exports has left Turkmenistan receiving less than the world price and overly beholden to Russia. Pipeline diversification, including both a pipeline to China proposed for 2009 and the possibility of resurrecting plans for Trans-Caspian and Trans-Afghanistan pipelines that would avoid the Russian routes, and construction of high-power electricity lines to transport excess energy to Turkmenistan's neighbors, including Afghanistan, would not only enhance Turkmenistan's economic and political sovereignty, but also help fuel new levels of prosperity throughout the region. Berdimuhamedov has told U.S. interlocutors he recognizes the need for more options and has taken the first steps to this end, but he also took the first steps needed to increase the volume of gas exports to Russia -- agreeing in principle to build a new littoral pipeline -- during the May tripartite summit in Turkmenbashy. He will require encouragement and assistance from the international community if he is to maintain a course of diversification in the face of almost certain Russian efforts to keep Turkmenistan from weaning itself away from Russia. U.S. POLICY -------------- ¶15. (SBU) U.S. policy in Turkmenistan is three-fold: -- Encourage democratic reform and increased respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, including support for improvements in the education and health systems; -- Encourage economic reform and growth of a market economy and private-sector agriculture, as well as diversification of Turkmenistan's energy export options; and -- Promote security cooperation. ¶16. (SBU) In raising human rights concerns, the United States: -- Encourages further relaxation of Niyazov-era abuses and restrictions on freedom of movement; -- Promotes greater religious freedom, including registration of unrecognized groups like the Roman Catholic Church, and making legal provision for conscientious objectors; and -- Advocates the growth of civil society by urging the government to register non-governmental organizations. ASHGABAT 00001192 005 OF 006 SECURITY -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Turkmenistan Armed Forces. General of the Army Agageldi Mammetgeldiyev has remained the Minister of Defense since 2002. Mammetgeldiyev is a trained medical doctor and previously was the Chief of the State Border Service (SBS). His primary deputy and acting Chief of the General Staff, COL Muhammetguly Atabayev, is also a medical doctor. The only general officer in the ministry is the minister. Since taking office, President Berdimuhamedov has initiated several changes affecting the military, which Niyazov previously maintained as a non-threatening institution and source of cheap labor for traffic safety, area beautification, hospital orderlies, and other enterprises. The Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) are in the process of transferring emergency response-related responsibilities to a new organization, the State Service for Emergency Situations. The standing MOD practice of supplying conscripts for civilian medical services and other civilian enterprises also may have ended. The military, however, largely remains a parade force that performs one "major" battalion-level exercise annually, and only now may be receiving additional presidential attention to repair and upgrade its aging Soviet-era equipment. President Berdimuhamedov's decision to allow cabinet ministers to travel abroad opens the door for General Mammetgeldiyev to visit the United States and participate in foreign events, which he previously was forced to decline. ¶18. (SBU) U.S. Defense Cooperation. Turkmenistan continues to occupy a strategic location in the Global War on Terrorism. Niyazov's UN-endorsed policy of "positive neutrality" kept Turkmenistan at arm's length from Russian military encumbrances -- and from Iranian maneuvering; Niyazov used his minimal security relationship with the United States to show his "independence" from Moscow. Turkmenistan remains an important conduit for the U.S. military to Afghanistan, and maintenance of overflights and the military refueling operation at Ashgabat Airport remain key embassy goals. Although Turkmenistan is not an option for basing, the Turkmenistan government verbally has approved the use of Mary Northeast Military Airbase as an emergency divert location for distressed U.S. military aircraft. ¶19. (SBU) CENTCOM Theater Security Cooperation. In addition to OEF support, Turkmenistan cooperates with the U.S. military through CENTCOM's annual Program of Security Cooperation (PSC). The program, formerly known as the Military to Military Contact Plan, has grown from 20 events in FY05 to almost 100 events scheduled for FY08 involving the MOD, SBS, and MVD. In August 2007, the CENTCOM D/J5 signed the FY08 PSC with officers from the MOD and MVD. The PSC includes new events on maritime security cooperation based on the Defense Ministry's expressed interest in U.S. support for the development of its non-existent navy. Cooperation with the MVD is mainly via the Marshall Center and in the field of fire response. SBS interest in close cooperation with the U.S. military, however, is less clear. With the assistance of the Embassy's EXBS program, the SBS operates the former USCG Cutter Point Jackson, a U.S. Excess Defense Article donation, however, does not appear interested in deeper maritime cooperation. Turkmenistan marginally participates in NATO and EUCOM exchanges, but has participated in Marshall Center programs since 1994. CENTCOM plans to have a permanent Security Assistance Officer in place by mid-February 2008 to enable CENTCOM and the embassy to manage this increased level of security cooperation. ¶20. (SBU) Through the State Partnership Program and the annual military cooperation program, Turkmenistan has a long-standing relationship with the Nevada National Guard. While the cooperation covers many mutual areas of importance, ASHGABAT 00001192 006 OF 006 current areas of emphasis are disaster preparedness and response, fire prevention and response, and counter-narcotics activities. ¶21. (SBU) The Nevada National Guard also supports the construction of border crossing stations using CENTCOM-provided counter-narcotics funding. The Altyn Asyr border station on the Iranian border was opened in November ¶2006. The Imamnazar border station on the Afghanistan border opened on 13 August 2007. CENTCOM recently provided $8M to build a third border crossing station at Farap on the Uzbekistan border and to purchase communications equipment to link border posts with Ashgabat. The embassy hopes to continue working with CENTCOM and the Nevada National Guard in the important areas of border security and counter-narcotics, primarily focused on the Afghanistan border. Although cooperation on border station construction is quite good, the Embassy in mid-July became aware that the Altyn Asyr border station has remained unused since its commissioning seven months ago. The Embassy has questioned the Turkmenistan government why the last 200 meters of road that connects the border station to the existing road has not been paved and why the station remains unused. ¶22. (SBU) U.S. Security Assistance. Current security assistance programs focus on improving the communications capability of the Turkmenistan armed forces in the areas of emergency response and border security, English language ability, and in building a future leadership with western principles. For the first time, the MOD provided a letter in March 2007 identifying areas of interest for future IMET training. Current FMF/IMET projections for FY07 are $250K/$424K, FY08 $0/$300K, and the United States government is re-looking security assistance to Turkmenistan for FY09, for which the Embassy has requested $2.8M/$700K. Turkmenistan has participated in FMF/IMET since 1997. ¶23. (SBU) The Turkmenistani government strictly controls contact between the U.S. military through the U.S. Defense Attache Office and Turkmenistan's security forces. Relations are cordial, but not close. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs approves all events and activities via diplomatic note. No direct correspondence is allowed, although the coordination of MFA-approved events with the MOD has become slightly less bureaucratic. ¶24. (SBU) During your visit, Embassy recommends The Adjutant General, Nevada National Guard, emphasize the following: -- Greater regional security cooperation through conferences, training events, and exercises is in the interest of both the U.S. and Turkmenistani governments. -- The United States appreciates our continuing cooperation, especially with the military on disaster preparedness and response (civil defense),as well as with the customs and border services on the border post construction and communications projects. -- The United States appreciates Turkmenistan's continuing support in the Global War on Terrorism and for humanitarian overflights to Afghanistan. -- The Nevada National Guard seeks to better understand Turkmenistan's desired areas of cooperation and stands ready to respond to new proposals. HOAGLAND