LUKEWARM COMORAN REACTION TO LATEST AU MEETING

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000998 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO PARIS FOR D'ELIA PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS EAID PHUM CN SUBJECT: LUKEWARM COMORAN REACTION TO LATEST AU MEETING ¶1. (U) Six "concerned" African Foreign Ministers met in Cape Town September 18 to discuss the ongoing de facto secession in Anjouan, Union of the Comoros. This Ministerial Council adopted the recommendations of an experts group that met in Addis Ababa September 4. While the declaration calls for some tough measures to force renegade Anjouan Colonel Mohamed Bacar's hand, these will not go into effect until the African Union Peace and Security Council meets in early October to decide on the mechanism for implementation. ¶2. (SBU) News of the Cape Town conclusions received lukewarm reaction from the Government of the Union of the Comoros, who have long insisted the AU must use tough measures - even force - to bring Bacar into the fold and restore unity in the country. President Sambi, recently pictured in the local press in camouflage military attire viewing military equipment donated by Morocco, has already told the Ambassador he is planning - as his last choice -- a unilateral military option against Anjouan. ¶3. (SBU) Union officials and other contacts in Moroni support in general the latest Cape Town recommendations, namely individual sanctions and a selective embargo of Anjouan. If anything, Comorans are disappointed that Bacar has yet again bought more time for his illegitimate regime. If implemented by the AU Peace and Security Council in October, the sanctions would remain in place for 45 days and then be reviewed to assess their effectiveness. ¶4. (SBU) AU Envoy in Moroni Mourad confirmed the South African Government flew Colonel Bacar to Cape Town to present his case to the gathered ministers. Mourad's read-out was of vintage Bacar: a range of legalistic arguments, complaints of electoral code violations, a proposal for a round table on Comoran federalism, and demands for face-to-face meetings with Union President Sambi. Bacar's coup de grace, and a deal-breaker for all other stakeholders, was to reject the AU demand for Anjouan island elections before anything else. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: From President Sambi to the average Comoran, AU attention to their crisis is welcome but patience is wearing thin. For this reason, the 45-day deadline and the continued possibility of AU military coercion are probably welcome. Further delays, however, are likely to push the reluctant Sambi closer toward unilateral action. Minister of External Relations Jaffar and other senior officials share Post's view that Comoros could be a (relatively)"easy win" for the AU if political will can be found. The alternative, a Comoran-only solution to the Anjouan crisis, will result in loss of life and probably set the Comoros back into its historical vicious cycle of political instability. END COMMENT. ¶6. (U) Post sent the full text of the September 4 Addis Ababa meeting of experts report - marked "restricted" -- to the Desk and USAU. This is the recommendation that is to be forwarded to the Council of Peace and Security to be implemented. MARQUARDT