BACAR'S DEFIANCE LEAVES AU FEW OPTIONS IN THE COMOROS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000779 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE NSC FOR DIRECTOR PITTMAN DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E CKOLLMAR DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN PARIS FOR D'ELIA PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CN SUBJECT: BACAR'S DEFIANCE LEAVES AU FEW OPTIONS IN THE COMOROS REF: ANTANANARIVO 685 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) Little has changed in the Union of the Comoros in recent days (reftels). African Union (AU) Envoy Francisco Madeira again threatened Anjouan island renegade, Mohamed Bacar, and again offered an ultimatum. In a press statement July 28, Madeira said, "Bacar's boat is sinking and anyone left aboard should jump off or else risk going down with him." Madeira emphasized that the refusal to allow free elections and to accept AU observers, as well as ongoing intransigence with regard to the Union Government, has isolated Bacar's position. ¶2. (U) Commenting on Bacar's recent demands for talks, Madeira insisted Anjouan's self-imposed leader has no constitutional right to sit with the democratically-elected Union President Ahmed Sambi, nor the elected island presidents of Grande Comore and Moheli. The AU Envoy highlighted the fact that Bacar professes to accept the Union Constitution, but in reality only respects the law when it suits his interests. ¶3. (U) Bacar's response was predictable, identifying the AU, Union Government, international community, and anyone else as responsible for the current crisis. The renegade leader of Anjouan has again invited Union President Sambi and the other island presidents to meet for negotiations. Bacar's spokesperson insists, sometimes, that the June 10 election was legitimate and binding (Note: Bacar rigged the vote, winning 90 percent with 10 percent participation. End Note). Other times, Bacar's people say an Anjouan island election can be held, but federalist institutions and arrangements must be resolved first. ¶4. (U) Following Madeira's scathing report, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) convened July 31 to issue a communique (text follows) extending the mandate of the AU Electoral and Security Mission to the Comoros for one month through August 31. The PSC pledged to meet as soon as possible to review the situation on Anjouan, based on a report to be submitted by the chairperson of the AU Commission after consultation with the countries in the region. The Union Government has not yet responded publicly. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: It took several failed negotiations for the AU envoy to accept what the Union Government has been telling him for months: Bacar is not part of the solution; he is the problem. The Comoros remain in perpetual "wait mode" while the AU again conducts internal consultations. With negotiations exhausted, the AU has few options at its disposal to maintain credibility on this issue. END COMMENT. ¶6. (U) START TEXT OF COMMUNIQUE: The Peace and Security Council of the African Union, at its 84th meeting held on 31 July 2007, adopted the following decision on the renewal of the mandate of the African Union Electoral and Security Assistance Mission to the Comoros: Council, ¶1. Recalls decision PSC/MIN/Comm.1 (LXXVII) adopted at its 77th meeting held in Durban, South Africa, on 9 May 2007, authorizing the deployment of the African Union Electoral and Security Assistance Mission to The Comoros (MAES),for an initial period running from 13 May to 31 July 2007; ¶2. Decides to extend the mandate of MAES for an additional period of one month, until 31 August 2007; ¶3. Further decides to meet as soon as possible to review the situation in the Comorian Island of Anjouan, on the basis of a report to be submitted by the Chairperson of the Commission after consultation with the countries of the region. END TEXT SIBLEY