PRESIDENT TO DISSOLVE MADAGASCAR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000721 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TO DISSOLVE MADAGASCAR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY REF: ANTANANARIVO 715 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Marc Ravalomanana announced July 20 his intention to dissolve the National Assembly and call legislative elections. His justifications include "realignment" with his Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) and the recent Constitutional Referendum; the Deputies' terms are also set to expire. While apparently constitutionally legal, critics suspect a power grab, particularly if the President uses his authority to legislate during the period between dissolution and new elections. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) President Marc Ravalomanana announced in a public meeting July 20 he plans to dissolve the National Assembly in the "near future" in order to align the lower house of the legislature with the amended Constitution and the MAP. Taken by surprise, political observers do not know what to make of the President's cryptic justification, but political parties have started meeting to prepare. Madagascar has a bicameral Parliament; the National Assembly has 160 seats and is popularly elected, whereas the Senate contains a mixture of elected and appointed seats. For the dissolution to be official it must be formally published by the Council of Ministers. ¶3. (U) The President's decision appears to be constitutional. Article 98 of the Constitution stipulates the President is allowed to dissolve the National Assembly for "determining causes," which he does not have to specify. The timing is also appropriate given the Deputies' five year mandate is about to expire; the last elections were held in the fall of 2002. Perhaps because their term was almost up anyway, many opposition figures have welcomed the announcement of new elections. ¶4. (SBU) Opposition parties are also claiming Ravalomanana is looking to solidify his power in the midst of internal divisions within his TIM (Tiako I'Madagasikara) political party. TIM members comprise the majority at the National Assembly, but in recent months a dissident wing of TIM has been meeting independently to discuss ways to reenergize the party. Feeling increasingly marginalized by Ravalomanana, they seek ways to hold the executive branch more accountable to the party line. The National Assembly largely serves to "rubber stamp" the Government of Madagascar's (GOM) initiatives, but with the budget session set to begin in September some critics wonder whether the President is calling new elections in order to stack the Assembly with loyalists to support his initiatives. Further, some critics wonder whether the move is a "power grab," given the President has the authority to legislate in the absence of a sitting National Assembly. Article 100 of the Constitution stipulates the President can legislate in case of emergency or catastrophe; Article 156 stipulates that in times of transition, the President can legislate by ordinance on issues regarding the establishment and functioning of decentralized institutions. The potential impact on issues such as regional budgets is still unclear. ¶5. (U) The issue of electoral code reform has been gathering steam in political circles since the international community started advocating for a single ballot and an independent electoral commission. Post notes the dissolution of the National Assembly essentially puts off the debate until after legislative elections, perhaps until 2008. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Although dissolution of the National Assembly is constitutional, it only adds to the perception the President is making unilateral decisions for political gain (reftel). For example the new constitution -- unlike the previous one - does not require the legislature to ratify Presidential legislation promulgated during periods of transition or emergency. With a combative Parliament this might be an important change, but it is difficult to see that it would matter much at present given the docility of the President's first term legislature. Only two days earlier, the Prime Minister had called for a "political hiatus" during the Indian Ocean Games set to start August 9, which is also fueling speculation over the lack of the communication within the GOM. The dissolution of the National Assembly will essentially freeze all legislation until the new Assembly is in place, as the Senate can only serve as a consultative body for the GOM in the meantime. Once the dissolution has been formally published, Post will closely monitor the impact during the transition period. END COMMENT. SIBLEY