COMORANS HOLD BREATH WAITING FOR ANJOUAN ELECTION

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000681 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMB COURVILLE DEPT FOR AF/E - RMEYERS DEPT FOR AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA - DROTHSTEIN PARIS FOR D'ELIA PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR ASEC AU CN SUBJECT: COMORANS HOLD BREATH WAITING FOR ANJOUAN ELECTION REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 642 and Previous B) ANTANANARIVO 615 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Delegates of the Government of the Union of the Comoros as well as those sent by renegade Anjouan Island warlord Mohamed Bacar met under African Union auspices July 8 and 9 in Pretoria to seek a solution to their inter-island impasse. Rather than holding a negotiation between the two sides, the AU apparently listened to each separately and then issued a statement recommending the way forward. The statement largely reaffirms the Cape Town Declaration of June 19 (Ref B) proposing AU-monitored elections in Anjouan; Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi is now expected to hold a cabinet meeting July 12 to set a new election date, most probably before the end of the month. Then it will again be up to Bacar to decide whether to stall or allow a fair election in which he would likely lose. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Post's Locally Employed Staff (LES) in the Comoros confirmed July 11 that a decision on a date for new island president elections in Anjouan is expected July 12. The Union Government delegation to the African Union talks in Pretoria, led by Minister of External Affairs Ahmed Jaffar, returns to Moroni July 11 via Dar es Salaam. Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi will reportedly convene his cabinet immediately for a briefing from the delegation and to decide on next steps. ¶3. (SBU) Our LES also reported the Anjouanese delegation is returning from Pretoria via Mayotte. Given that Bacar did not personally attend the AU meetings, it is unclear whether he will accept the AU's recommended path forward. Civic leaders in Anjouan continue to call for a new election. At present all three islands -- Anjouan, Grande Comore, and Moheli - are calm while Comorans hold their breath for what might happen next. ¶4. (SBU) According to a French translation of the declaration following the Pretoria meeting (French and in-house English translations have been sent to AF/E desk),the AU reaffirmed the principles in the Cape Town Communication of June 19 calling for new, free, and transparent elections in Anjouan. The declaration also recommends AU participation and monitoring for this election, and indicates that all local island security forces would be ordered to their barracks for the duration. Immediately following this election, the AU proposes convening an inter-island commission to evaluate "competencies" (federal structures and island autonomy) to finalize rules for power-sharing on security, state-owned enterprises, and the judiciary. An added agenda item was for this commission to "rationalize" the electoral calendar so that costly elections were not annual events and to "re-examine" the constitutional arrangements, notably Comoros' unique rotating presidency. The declaration acknowledges "errors committed by both sides" (Union and Bacar) and aspires to a durable solution to stabilize the Comoros. It also seeks international assistance in funding the proposed stabilization activities. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Post has learned indirectly that the Union government and Bacar delegations agreed in Pretoria to hold a new election in Anjouan as soon as possible, as recommended by the AU. We continue to assess that Bacar has little chance of winning a fair election, given widespread dissatisfaction with his antics among Anjouanese. It is unclear whether the Pretoria declaration will break the logjam, given Bacar has promised several times in recent months to cooperate, only to maintain armed control of Anjouan and prevent the deployment of AU observer teams. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: Post expects Sambi to announce a new election date July 12, coupled with a request to the African Union to immediately deploy to Anjouan. Everything then rests on whether Bacar continues to stall or concedes. The latter scenario is necessary for stability in the Comoros, but may be unlikely given Bacar's track record and apparent motivations to remain in power. END COMMENT. SIBLEY