COMOROS ELECTIONS: TWO OUT OF THREE SUCCEED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000636 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E MBEYZEROV ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU AMB COURVILLE ACCRA PLEASE PASS TO LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD PARIS FOR D'ELIA DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E CKOLLMAR DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM AU CN SUBJECT: COMOROS ELECTIONS: TWO OUT OF THREE SUCCEED REF: ANTAN 615 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4 B, D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Island elections in Grande Comore and Moheli successfully completed their second rounds June 24. Embassy observers found the election in Grande Comore to be transparent and well-organized. Tensions are high between the Union government, African Union (AU),and other international representatives in Moroni as Mohamed Bacar remains in control of the third Comoran island of Anjouan. The Union Government is frustrated with AU tactics, insisting the time for negotiation has passed. END SUMMARY. Island Elections Results In Grande Comore And Moheli -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Late June 26, the Comoran Constitutional Court in Moroni announced final official results for the second round of island president elections in Grand Comore and Moheli. In Grande Comore, Mohamed Abdouloihabi (known as "Albino"),the candidate supported by Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, defeated Larifou by earning 57 percent of the vote. In Moheli, Mohamed Ali Said defeated incumbent Faizul with 57 percent of the vote there. Embassy observers noted a few irregularities but in general found election officials to be professional and efficient. Of note, prior to the June 24 polls, the National Electoral Commission convened international observers for a "lessons learned" session to solicit feedback from the first round and to announce several adjustments made to correct imperfections on June 10. La Francophonie And AU Squabble -------------- ¶3. (C) Tensions were running high at a meeting of the international community June 23, where a squabble broke out between AU envoy Madeira and the Head of the Organization for the Francophonie (OIF) delegation. Noting Madeira went against the GOC,s wishes by meeting with members of Bacar,s government during a June 22 visit to Anjouan in which he was only to hand them the June 19 Cape Town communique (reftel), an official of the Ministry of Exterior Relations questioned &what game is the AU playing?8 The OIF representative accused the AU of working on its own and failing to consult other members of the international community. Madeira snapped back, &We do not know if the OIF is even our friend. Are you with us or against us?8 The argument finished with the OIF representative telling Madeira, &This is not finished, so be careful.8 The GOC,s discomfort with the lack of coordination and communication on the AU,s part has clearly worked its way through the international community. Bacar Remains In Control Of Anjouan -------------- ¶4. (C) As of midday June 27, renegade former Anjouan island president Bacar remains in control of the island of Anjouan with his armed militia. Despite warnings from Union President Sambi, the AU continues to insist on futile "negotiating" sessions with Bacar. An AU ministerial delegation lead by South African Minister of Foreign Affairs Zuma traveled to Anjouan June 24 with the express purpose of determining whether Bacar would accept the conditions set forth in the June 19 Cape Town communique. However, following discussions where Bacar set forth a number of procedural complaints including the illegal composition of the Constitutional Court, the AU delegation returned to Moroni recommending the GOC, Bacar,s government, and the AU sit down for tripartite negotiations to deal with these institutional issues before discussing elections. ¶5. (C) Upset the AU seemed to be retreating, President Sambi publicly declared June 26, &No more negotiations. Elections first on Anjouan.8 A statement subsequently released by the GOC claimed the AU delegation contradicted the decisive spirit of the June 19 Cape Town announcement by considering further negotiations with Bacar. Anjouanese People Demonstrate Against Bacar -------------- ANTANANARI 00000636 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Timed to greet AU Envoy Madeira, several hundred Anjouanese people tried to demonstrate against Bacar at the airport outside Mutsumudu, Anjouan. Bacar's forces dispersed the gathering crowd and arrested at least one journalist. Later in the day, several hundred Anjounese marched in the streets of Mutsumudu chanting against Bacar and holding signs demanding freedom and democracy. Embassy Observer Teams -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Embassy sent three observers ) one officer and two local staff ) to the second round of island elections on the two islands where Union authority holds sway. Although they observed several small discrepancies, the overall impression was elections that were free, fair, transparent, and well organized. Other international observers shared the same impression. The chief complaint from elections officials centered around the low voter turnout. ¶8. (SBU) The elections proceeded remarkably smoothly. As with the first round of the elections, South Africa and the African Union provided logistical support and security. After the first round, Comoran election officials and the candidates had identified several procedural problems, and initiated changes for the second round, which were implemented quickly, although several were implemented sporadically. Some polling stations complained that they did not have sufficient ballots for each registered voter. The discrepancy was, with one exception, less than 25 ballots in each case, and in no case presented a problem due to the low turnout. ¶9. (SBU) Foumbouni, Grande Comore, home of losing candidate Larifou, was the only area to give U.S. observers pause. There, observers at one of the town,s five voting stations saw a number of procedural irregularities, the most serious being regular requests by one of Abduloihabi,s observers that he be allowed to assist each aged or disabled voter who entered, and then proceeded to mark the ballot for the voter, without appearing to obtain the voter,s opinion. While concerned, both U.S. and other international observers did not feel the discrepancies impugned the overall process. ¶10. (SBU) After the polls closed, vote counting proceeded quickly. On Grande Comore the electoral commission tabulated all the votes by 5:00 a.m. The materials from Moheli arrived by helicopter at 10:30 Monday morning, and the results were ready two hours later, less than 24 hours after the polls had closed. The Constitutional Court completed its count and certification of the results at 4:00 p.m. Tuesday, over a full day earlier than expected. ¶11. (C) COMMENT: The Comoran Government is starting to publicly express its frustration with the AU's refusal to take Anjouan by force and Madeira's ongoing circus of talks which do little but lend legitimacy to Bacar. Besides his inability to govern the people of Anjouan under Bacar's control, Sambi is under increasing pressure of public unrest in Grand Comore and Moheli for his perceived inability to maintain the Union. Our civic leader contacts in Anjouan share Sambi's sentiment regarding Bacar, and ask why the AU continues to negotiate with a "rebel who only defies the international community." Post shares the GOC's view that Minister Zuma's mission to Comoros did not produce substantial results and that it is counterproductive to suggest talks with Bacar at this stage, except for the modality whereby he might relinquish power to allow free and fair elections in Anjouan. Bacar appears to have calculated that the forceful words in the Cape Town declaration will not be followed by forceful action. We fear that he may have calculated correctly. END COMMENT. SIBLEY