TWO-THIRDS OF COMOROS ISLAND ELECTIONS SUCCESSFUL

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000573

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMB COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA - DROTHSTEIN
DEPT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - RBRANSON
JOAHNNESBURG FOR RCO MVEASY
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CASC CN
SUBJECT: TWO-THIRDS OF COMOROS ISLAND ELECTIONS SUCCESSFUL

REF: ANTANANARIVO 567 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) This is an Action Request - see para 6.


2. (SBU) The people of Grand Comore and Moheli in the Union of the
Comoros went to the polls June 10 to elect new island "presidents"
(governors). The pro-Sambi candidate Abduloihabi (known as
"Albino") leads in Grand Comore, followed by a charismatic lawyer,
Larifou, with incumbent El-Bak in third. Results from tiny Moheli
will come in soon. Run-off elections will be held June 27 if
needed.

AU: Better Late Than Never
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3. (SBU) After days of deliberation, the African Union (AU) issued a
statement June 10 praising the Union for its efforts to maintain
unity and hold elections. The AU condemned Bacar for his actions
(reftels) and declared any election he unilaterally organized to be
invalid. The AU called on Anjouanese to vote June 17 in the
legitimate election organized by the Union Government. Reports
indicate AU forces withdrew from Anjouan over the weekend, lest they
lend any credibility to Bacar. They will redeploy to Anjouan this
week to prepare for June 17. Two EmbOffs plan to observe the June
17 Anjouan island election.

Bacar "Wins" 89 Percent, With 10 Percent Turn-Out
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Deposed Anjouan leader Mohamed Bacar unilaterally held an
illegitimate election in Anjouan June 10, ignoring the Union
Government's decision to postpone the vote to June 17. Neither
Comorans nor the international community regards this election as
valid. Turn-out was reportedly about 10 percent; with Bacar
"winning" 89 percent of the vote. Predictably, Bacar used AU Envoy
Madeira's June 8 "mission" to his advantage, announcing erroneously
on Anjouan radio that the African Union had accepted the June 10
election date. Bacar further announced June 10 that "Anjouan is
autonomous and no longer part of the Union."


5. (SBU) The Union Government remains unable to enforce its
authority in Anjouan and the African Union is unable or unwilling to
restore Union President Sambi's control there. The coming days are
crucial: how will the Union Government follow through on its
decision to hold elections, properly observed by the AU, on June 17?
Bacar's actions and statements have carried Comoros to the brink of
another secession crisis.


6. (U) ACTION REQUESTED: Post asks the Department Spokesperson to
issue the following statement:

-- The United States commends the Government of the Union of the
Comoros for the successful island elections held in Grand Comore and
Moheli June 10. We look forward to continuing to work with Union
President Sambi.

-- The United States encourages the Union Government to hold
peaceful, free, fair, and transparent elections on the island of
Anjouan June 17. The people of Anjouan should be able to express
their will in a democratic vote.

SIBLEY