ANJOUAN'S BACAR MOVES TO DERAIL COMOROS VOTE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000566

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMB COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA - DROTHSTEIN
DEPT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - RBRANSON
JOAHNNESBURG FOR RCO M VEASY
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CASC CN
SUBJECT: ANJOUAN'S BACAR MOVES TO DERAIL COMOROS VOTE

REF: ANTANANARIVO 477 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Violence broke out again on the Comoran island of
Anjouan June 5 as island strongman Mohamed Bacar continued his
pattern of extralegal efforts to cling to power. Bacar, who stepped
aside as island president to run for reelection (Reftels),appears
to have no intention of losing the election and no compunction about
derailing the process if it appears that he might lose. June 5 his
loyal militia fired shots to disperse a crowd at the airport,
thereby preventing the arrival of Union President Ahmed Abdallah
Sambi; the airport remained closed as of June 6. Elections on the
three islands are scheduled for June 10, but the Anjouan elections
may be postponed if the security situation makes it impossible to
hold them. The Union Government and local human rights groups have
both urged a robust presence by the African Union (AU) and the
international community as the only way to prevent Bacar from
stealing the election. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Forces loyal to deposed Anjouan "president" Bacar fired
shots June 5 to disperse a crowd at the airport in Anjouan and
unconfirmed reports indicate up to three people were injured.
Expecting Union President Sambi's plane to arrive, a large crowd of
Sambi supporters had gathered at the airport to welcome him;
according to one report they were also trying to remove debris from
the air strip placed by Bacar supporters seeking to prevent the
plane from landing. A contingent of 80 South African police
officers, under the auspices of the AU, has arrived in Anjouan.
They are reportedly sticking close to their hotel, unable or
unwilling to challenge Bacar loyalists. With a militia of 200
well-armed gendarme forces, Bacar controls the airport and major
cities in Anjouan.


3. (SBU) Earlier reports that President Sambi's plane was "fired
upon" June 5 were apparently false - the pilot returned to Moroni
when he heard the shots fired on the ground. As of midday June 6,
Union Gendarmes contacts in Moroni report that Sambi supporters are
trying to barricade roads in Anjouan to limit movements of Bacar's
militia. President Sambi has not yet decided when he will again
attempt to travel to Anjouan; he awaits the arrival of African Union
Envoy Francisco Madeira, who is expected June 6. The airport
reportedly remains closed and under the control of Bacar's militia.

Union Government and NGOs Request Help
--------------


4. (SBU) In repeated public statements, the Union Government has
said they want free and fair elections. Privately GOC officials
have told us they will postpone the island president election in
Anjouan (planned for June 10) if adequate AU forces cannot deploy
there to guarantee security. To date candidates to succeed Bacar in
Anjouan (Reftels) allege they have not had adequate security to
campaign freely. Contacts in Anjouan indicate Bacar loyalists are
intimidating the other candidates, including tearing down their
banners and breaking up meetings. Bacar also controls the only
functioning radio station in Anjouan.


5. (SBU) Ahmed Mohamed Allaoui, President of the Comoran Human
Rights Federation (FCDH),has also launched another appeal to the
international community to "crush the rebellion" in Anjouan
(referring to Bacar). Allaoui wants the island election postponed
to June 24 and asks the international community to support the Union
Government in "liberating" Anjouan to restore constitutional law.

Elections Administration
--------------


6. (SBU) Elections for island president (governor) for each of the
Union of the Comoros' three islands -- Grand Comore, Anjouan, and
Moheli - are slated to be held June 10. With multiple candidates on
all three islands, run-off elections between the top two
vote-getters are planned for June 24 if no candidate emerges with a
majority. Contacts with the National Electoral Commission (CENI)
report lack of funding has prevented payment of organizers, who
threaten to strike June 7. The United Nations Development Program
(UNDP) is financing elections materials and some of the
administration; it is also trying to resolve the issue of salaries
so the election administration continues. Our UNDP colleagues
report all elections materials have arrived to date and, with
significant exceptions in Anjouan, the Constitutional Court has

ANTANANARI 00000566 002 OF 002


received few reports of irregularities. Given AU logistical
support, managing the 300 polling stations should be feasible on
Grande Comore and Moheli. On Anjouan, Bacar has been willing to
confront the Union government but has so far backed down each time
he has been confronted by the international community.

Action by Embassy Antananarivo
--------------


7. (SBU) Embassy Antananarivo has issued an op-ed to Comoran press
outlets supporting free, fair and transparent elections in the
Comoros. The Embassy intends to send three American and one local
staff to observe the June 10 island elections. Two of these
Americans are slated to observe the Anjouan elections; their
presence will contribute to international efforts to restrain Bacar
within democratic norms. However, should the security situation
deteriorate further, their travel to Anjouan will be deferred. No
other American citizens are believed to be present on Anjouan.

SIBLEY